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Model that predicted 5 of past 6 presidential elections has Trump in 2020 by 'landslide'
justthenews.com ^ | 9/16/2020 | Daniel Payne

Posted on 09/16/2020 6:07:27 PM PDT by bitt

Professor's model 'a leading indicator' of November results

rofessor of political science whose controversial election model has correctly called five of the last six U.S. presidential elections says President Trump will win reelection in 2020 in a "landslide."

Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University, is giving Trump "a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide," the Long Island, N.Y., school said in a recent press release.

Norpoth's "Primary Model" has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election since 1996, missing only George Bush's 2000 victory over Al Gore. (When the model is "applied to previous elections," Stonybrook said, it "correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27.")

The model utilizes data from presidential primaries to help predict who will win.

"I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests," Norpoth said in the press release. "It's a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what's going to happen in November."

The professor said he was unsurprised at the model's prediction this year, citing Trump's performance in the primaries earlier in the winter.

"When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes ... I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict," he said in the release.

Joe Biden, on the other hand, pulled down only 8.4% in New Hampshire, Norpoth said, a number that is "unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president," he stated.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2020election; election2020; landslide; modelprediction; trump2020; trumplandslide
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To: Lazamataz

Thanks for the clarification and explanation.


41 posted on 09/16/2020 9:55:56 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom ("And oft conducted by historic truth, We tread the long extent of backward time.")
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To: bitt

He’s right! Then the mail-in ballots arrived in their millions ... and so President Harris takes office


42 posted on 09/17/2020 3:07:51 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: odawg

“”The Gemara says: There are five matters in our world which are one-sixtieth of their most extreme manifestations. They are: Fire, honey, Shabbat, sleep, and a dream.””

Well, I am certainly not qualified to evaluate such pure science as this evinces, no sir, not me. This guy must have polished off computers and advanced digital technology in his spare time.


43 posted on 09/17/2020 3:28:28 AM PDT by odawg
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To: Lazamataz
You can't throw out PA VBM ballots with bad signatures, but you put them aside, and they must be remedied. One remedy is that the voter is contacted and she or he confirms the signature is theirs. Not sure about the other remedies, but if they are like the one I know about, this will weed out a LOT of fraud.

Nice to hear good news on the voter front.

44 posted on 09/17/2020 8:10:40 AM PDT by GOPJ ( Biden's an 'innocent face' masking harsh commie thugs ... a useful face to fool the yokels.)
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To: GOPJ; Jane Long; MinuteGal; jsanders2001; V K Lee; HarleyLady27; stephenjohnbanker; ...
Professor's model is 'a leading indicator' of November results and has correctly called five of the
last six US presidential elections says President Trump will win reelection in 2020 in a "landslide."
45 posted on 09/17/2020 8:44:19 AM PDT by Liz ( Our side has 8 trillion bullets; the other side doesn't know which bathroom to use.)
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To: Savage Beast

Amen


46 posted on 09/17/2020 8:46:22 AM PDT by frank ballenger (End vote fraud,harvesting,non-citizen voting & leftist media news censorship or we are finished.)
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To: Lazamataz

keep ballots rejected for signatures...
//////////////////////////////////////////////

Yes. If they have plenty of time to patiently wait day after day for the phony “found” Dem ballots to overthrow Trump’s victory weeks later, then they have time to contact the signature problem voters.

When they sent out all those cards to tell various Dem governor states’ voters to get a mail-in ballot, how many were old address, deceased, no longer at address? And then are they getting on the current active voter rolls for Nov. votes to count anyway? Take the time to search their address changes or current residence status NOW. Before stories of “Exhausted and overwhelmed voter office staff cannot investigate all cases. Just too much.”

But will wait for the “found” Dem votes as long as it takes. G.L. Gonzalez, Geraldo Gonzales and Gonzalez Geraldo Lopez want their three votes to count, all with 100 Aladamo Drive address. So do Achmad,Ahmed and Ahmad Alazirquial sharing one apartment.


47 posted on 09/17/2020 8:58:08 AM PDT by frank ballenger (End vote fraud,harvesting,non-citizen voting & leftist media news censorship or we are finished.)
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To: Liz
I don't trust models.


48 posted on 09/17/2020 9:25:47 AM PDT by Libloather (Why do climate change hoax deniers live in mansions on the beach?)
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To: Liz
... says President Trump will win reelection in 2020 in a "landslide."

We're pulling in the Hispanic vote... and black men who want jobs AND families... It really could be a landslide.

49 posted on 09/17/2020 11:13:34 AM PDT by GOPJ ( Biden's an 'innocent face' masking harsh commie thugs ... a useful face to fool the yokels.)
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To: Secret Agent Man

...& Harry Truman...


50 posted on 09/17/2020 5:29:01 PM PDT by Jim W N (MAGA by restoring the Gospel of the Grace of Christ and our Free Constitutional Republic!)
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To: GOPJ; Liz; V K Lee

I like Norpath’s analysis. It’s based on the simple notion that a candidate’s ability to generate excitement and commitment in the primary will carry over in the general.

Makes sense. Nothing fancy.

But to me, the most important indicator of Trump’s victory is Trump’s repetitive tweets and comments saying he’s going to WIN!

The guy has an uncanny way of producing results — and I’m darn sure he’s factoring in his strategy to crush or overwhelm the Democrat mail fraud.


51 posted on 09/17/2020 5:31:04 PM PDT by poconopundit (Hard oak fist in an Irish velvet glove: Kayleigh the Shillelagh we salute your work!)
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To: poconopundit

Oh! You can bet your boots he has a plan for any and all mail fraud. We can only imagine what that might be; but he and the AG have something in mind. Just as the two have collaborated on the hours following the election results and what might be seen on the streets, in the towns, of our USA. He has not come this far to throw up his hands and walk away. He will
fight, Fight, FIGHT to MAGA.


52 posted on 09/17/2020 8:16:56 PM PDT by V K Lee ("VICTORY FOR THE RIGHTEOUS IS JUDGMENT FOR THE WICKED")
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To: V K Lee

Quite an inspiration video on top of the Trump twitter today. The Big Ten Football story...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1306648654778953728

Trump is real smart to be pushing college sports - it’s worth big votes in Texas and the rest of the South and Rust Belt.

Northeast corridor and West coast, not so much. Trump’s voters are Football and NASCAR fans.


53 posted on 09/18/2020 9:14:29 AM PDT by poconopundit (Hard oak fist in an Irish velvet glove: Kayleigh the Shillelagh we salute your work!)
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To: poconopundit

Truly, football is of little interest these days. With the Cowboys and their dismal failure to improve their game, the sport has past its prime; so, no, this is not due to the politics of the players or owners. (yet that, alone, would have been enough!)

Love the fact our POTUS, no matter the challenge, never gives up and attempts to find ways to move forward.
Ha cha cha! Absolutely love this man! Thankful beyond belief he is on OUR team!
:-)


54 posted on 09/18/2020 10:12:21 AM PDT by V K Lee ("VICTORY FOR THE RIGHTEOUS IS JUDGMENT FOR THE WICKED")
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To: V K Lee

Love the fact our POTUS, no matter the challenge, never gives up and attempts to find ways to move forward.

* * *

Yes, he practices the “never give up” gospel he preaches!


55 posted on 09/20/2020 2:56:31 AM PDT by poconopundit (Hard oak fist in an Irish velvet glove: Kayleigh the Shillelagh we salute your work!)
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