Posted on 09/16/2020 6:07:27 PM PDT by bitt
Professor's model 'a leading indicator' of November results
rofessor of political science whose controversial election model has correctly called five of the last six U.S. presidential elections says President Trump will win reelection in 2020 in a "landslide."
Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University, is giving Trump "a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide," the Long Island, N.Y., school said in a recent press release.
Norpoth's "Primary Model" has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election since 1996, missing only George Bush's 2000 victory over Al Gore. (When the model is "applied to previous elections," Stonybrook said, it "correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27.")
The model utilizes data from presidential primaries to help predict who will win.
"I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests," Norpoth said in the press release. "It's a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what's going to happen in November."
The professor said he was unsurprised at the model's prediction this year, citing Trump's performance in the primaries earlier in the winter.
"When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes ... I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict," he said in the release.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, pulled down only 8.4% in New Hampshire, Norpoth said, a number that is "unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president," he stated.
TRUMP/PENCE 2020: FINISH THE JOB!
PENCE/MALKIN 2024: GO ON THE OFFENSIVE!
That President Trump wins is pretty obvious. What really needs to be done is figure out how many Republicans will ride on his coattails?
The RNC had better get its act together and maximize senate, house, and state government wins as well. If he could pick up a minimum of 4-5 senate seats and a clear majority in the house it would be an enormous force multiplier.
In VA the Senate race has a Republican that is apparently embarrassed by both Trump and the Republican label. His web site fails to mention either.
We could watch Soldier of Orange and A Clockwork Orange.
The snacks would include Cheetos, Cheezits, Fanta Orange, etc.
For dinner we would have Duck L'Orange
After dinner drinks would feature Grand Marnier and Glenmorangie.
Any other suggestions welcome...
Ok, however, I’m campaigning for PRESIDENT TRUMP as he is 75 points down. We can’t be looking at this and be comfortable!!
“can’t throw out ballots with bad signatures.”
As someone who used to be in charge of elections, hearing that gives me conniption fits.
Soros will be delivering bales of uncounted ballots for months after November 3rd.
Keep counting until you win, then shut ‘er down.
I think about all the animals there that day.
Of course Trump will win the election, but can he stop the theft of the election.
RCP Average 8/15 - 9/11 Biden 48.0 Trump 42.5 Biden +5.5
RCP average for 2016 had Clinton up by about the same amount and she squeaked out a victory.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/sep/7/daniel-gade-virginia-senate-candidate-sees-militar/
He is looking forward to working with liberals. On the environment
I am going to vote for this NoVA dream GOPe POS loser candidate but he gets no money from me.
Don’t forget he owns the machines that are used in electronic voting, and probably preset to a dem outcome
A Trump landslide would be a howl, but a win would be just as good. The social unrest after the win is what worries me the most and many other people have the same concern. Luckily I am surrounded by neighbors who own AR-15s and AK-47s and one even has a Thompson sub mg.
It's a little more nuanced than that. You can't throw out PA VBM ballots with bad signatures, but you put them aside, and they must be remedied. One remedy is that the voter is contacted and she or he confirms the signature is theirs.
Not sure about the other remedies, but if they are like the one I know about, this will weed out a LOT of fraud.
I know. I just can't be happy about any of these 'Trump will win in a landslide!' headlines, with all the shenanigans that are going on. And God knows what October Surprise the Left will come up with.
I won't relax until the election is over and done with. Of course if President Trump is reelected, there will be more rioting, looting, cities will burn, etc. etc.....
But at least our country will be SAVED.
To mold think the democrats are planning on winning or even trying to.
I think their strategy is to have trump win in such a manner that they can use it to deal legitimize the government of the United States of America and cause a violent overthrow at every level.
If they didn’t think that way they certainly would not have Joe Biden as their candidate because he is a guaranteed loser. If we can see that very very very clearly, I mean 3 people showing up for a public speech in his campaign… who does that
Somewhere a liberal head just exploded...
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