Posted on 09/16/2020 6:07:27 PM PDT by bitt
Professor's model 'a leading indicator' of November results
rofessor of political science whose controversial election model has correctly called five of the last six U.S. presidential elections says President Trump will win reelection in 2020 in a "landslide."
Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University, is giving Trump "a 90-percent chance of being re-elected in a landslide," the Long Island, N.Y., school said in a recent press release.
Norpoth's "Primary Model" has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election since 1996, missing only George Bush's 2000 victory over Al Gore. (When the model is "applied to previous elections," Stonybrook said, it "correctly predicts an impressive 25 of the last 27.")
The model utilizes data from presidential primaries to help predict who will win.
"I focus on early primaries and the way the candidates perform in those early contests," Norpoth said in the press release. "It's a very good predictor, and a leading indicator of what's going to happen in November."
The professor said he was unsurprised at the model's prediction this year, citing Trump's performance in the primaries earlier in the winter.
"When I looked at New Hampshire and I saw that Donald Trump got 85 percent of the votes ... I was pretty sure what the model was going to predict," he said in the release.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, pulled down only 8.4% in New Hampshire, Norpoth said, a number that is "unbelievable for a candidate with any aspirations of being president," he stated.
Thanks for the clarification and explanation.
He’s right! Then the mail-in ballots arrived in their millions ... and so President Harris takes office
“”The Gemara says: There are five matters in our world which are one-sixtieth of their most extreme manifestations. They are: Fire, honey, Shabbat, sleep, and a dream.””
Well, I am certainly not qualified to evaluate such pure science as this evinces, no sir, not me. This guy must have polished off computers and advanced digital technology in his spare time.
Nice to hear good news on the voter front.
Amen
keep ballots rejected for signatures...
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Yes. If they have plenty of time to patiently wait day after day for the phony “found” Dem ballots to overthrow Trump’s victory weeks later, then they have time to contact the signature problem voters.
When they sent out all those cards to tell various Dem governor states’ voters to get a mail-in ballot, how many were old address, deceased, no longer at address? And then are they getting on the current active voter rolls for Nov. votes to count anyway? Take the time to search their address changes or current residence status NOW. Before stories of “Exhausted and overwhelmed voter office staff cannot investigate all cases. Just too much.”
But will wait for the “found” Dem votes as long as it takes. G.L. Gonzalez, Geraldo Gonzales and Gonzalez Geraldo Lopez want their three votes to count, all with 100 Aladamo Drive address. So do Achmad,Ahmed and Ahmad Alazirquial sharing one apartment.
We're pulling in the Hispanic vote... and black men who want jobs AND families... It really could be a landslide.
...& Harry Truman...
I like Norpath’s analysis. It’s based on the simple notion that a candidate’s ability to generate excitement and commitment in the primary will carry over in the general.
Makes sense. Nothing fancy.
But to me, the most important indicator of Trump’s victory is Trump’s repetitive tweets and comments saying he’s going to WIN!
The guy has an uncanny way of producing results — and I’m darn sure he’s factoring in his strategy to crush or overwhelm the Democrat mail fraud.
Oh! You can bet your boots he has a plan for any and all mail fraud. We can only imagine what that might be; but he and the AG have something in mind. Just as the two have collaborated on the hours following the election results and what might be seen on the streets, in the towns, of our USA. He has not come this far to throw up his hands and walk away. He will
fight, Fight, FIGHT to MAGA.
Quite an inspiration video on top of the Trump twitter today. The Big Ten Football story...
https://twitter.com/i/status/1306648654778953728
Trump is real smart to be pushing college sports - it’s worth big votes in Texas and the rest of the South and Rust Belt.
Northeast corridor and West coast, not so much. Trump’s voters are Football and NASCAR fans.
Truly, football is of little interest these days. With the Cowboys and their dismal failure to improve their game, the sport has past its prime; so, no, this is not due to the politics of the players or owners. (yet that, alone, would have been enough!)
Love the fact our POTUS, no matter the challenge, never gives up and attempts to find ways to move forward.
Ha cha cha! Absolutely love this man! Thankful beyond belief he is on OUR team!
:-)
Love the fact our POTUS, no matter the challenge, never gives up and attempts to find ways to move forward.
* * *
Yes, he practices the “never give up” gospel he preaches!
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