Posted on 08/28/2020 11:39:02 AM PDT by 11th_VA
I try to give Trafalgar every benefit of the doubt after its stunning success in 2016 and 2018 but I’m a leeeetle skeptical of this one. Especially since they also have Republican John James leading incumbent Gary Peters for Peters’s Senate seat. That’s the first time James has led in any poll all year. Until today, the closest he’d been was three points behind a few weeks ago.
Another reason to be skeptical: This poll was conducted between August 14 and 23, a period encompassing the entire Democratic convention and before the Republican convention had begun. Is it impossible that Biden *lost* ground in Michigan, a state where he’s been leading since the start of the race, while his own convention was happening? Nope, not impossible. But conventions are designed to convince the public to warm up to their candidate. There were no disasters onstage for the Dems last week. It’d be odd if Biden lost votes in a state where he’d been strong until now because of it.
Of course, it’s possible that he lost ground for unrelated reasons, like rioting. But this poll wrapped before Kenosha went up in flames.
conducted Aug 14-23 (pre & post Democrat Convention)
46.6% @realDonaldTrump,
45.2% @JoeBiden,
3.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.4% Another Party Candidate, 3.6%
—————————————————————-
Aug 14-23 (pre & post Democrat Convention)
48.1% @JohnJamesMI,
46.6% @GaryPeters,
2.1% Another Party Candidate, 3.2% Und.
(Excerpt) Read more at google.com ...
Just go out and vote, folks and bring three or four conservative friends. We must vote...that is the only poll that matters.
JoMa
The RNC convention was outstanding. Combine that with most of America “sick and tired of the riot crap”, President Trump is likely leading by far more than this poll shows. If the election were held today, I would expect a landslide victory for him. Always add 10% to a GOP candidate for any polls.
Trump lost ground?
Rasmussen head to head against (8.26 Biden has Trump down 1 point a pick up of 2 from the previous week and a pick up of about 7 over 3 weeks.
Zogby yesterday had Trump at 52-48 vs Biden.
If you are looking at the Rasmussen daily approval index you can stop wasting your time because that is NOT a head to head poll of the candidates in this race.
So where is the evidence Trump lost ground and will lose more this week?
John James is pounding the hell out of Gary Peters with back to back ad spots during the local evening news broadcasts.
Go John!
Biden isn’t leading anywhere.
You forgot Bob Griffin elected twice 1966 and 1972. I know picky picky picky.
Of course play like you’re ten points behind. But this guy is going to win. What a story
I saw Dems online claiming Trafalger is a republican polling outfit and is skewing this poll. Like all polls aren’t skewed. LOL
Good news but there is a wave of fraud coming from the left so let’s hope it will be enough!
Not at all. Thanks.
Forgot him, but worse, so did my source. I will have to refer to two sources from now one. Similar thing happened on another topic.
Good to add one oddity to a little group, like the number of men who have walked on the surface of the Moon. Twelve.
Not at all. Thanks.
Forgot him, but worse, so did my source. I will have to refer to two sources from now one. Similar thing happened on another topic.
Good to add one oddity to a little group, like the number of men who have walked on the surface of the Moon. Twelve.
Spencer Abraham was terrible. He was part of the coalition of immigration leftists in the GOP that derailed and scuttled the Smith-Simpson bill in 1996. That was the last time a conservative version of comprehensive immigration reform actually had a chance to pass through Congress. It would have largely undone the 1990 mass immigration expansion bill, and we’d be seeing annual immigration levels closer to 500,000 a year now instead of one million-plus.
But Abraham and others (like Dick Armey, Sam Brownback, and a staffer named Paul Ryan), at the behest of the donor class, and accompanied with some moral preening, undermined the bill, leading eventually to its abandonment, and saving Clinton from a tough sign or veto decision.
Drinking in the middle of the day is generally a bad idea.
Talk about somebody being radioactive. I had a thought of saying “although Abraham was a POS and not worthy of mentioning here” but I left it alone. My posts are always too long , anyway, despite my tolerant and loyal fans here.
Abraham set us back and ruined the immigration framework for limiting the illegals. A Lebanese moderate Arab. Thanks, anyway, Abraham.
You are absolutely right, so thanks.
Again, watch the trend lines. They seem to be moving towards the President and towards James.
Plus, the Democrat Convention, in an effort to hold the party together, attacked the values of everyday Americans. The Republican Convention reaffirmed them.
And that’s another thing. Peters is an obscurity. James has some name ID from losing to Stabenow two years ago.
Newt Gingrich lost twice before he was elected. James Buckley lost his Senate race two years before he won. John Tower lost his first Senate race. There are many others. That’s encouraging for James.
Their final survey had it Trump 46.8 to Clinton 43.6. Which, er, isn’t exactly “correct” since Hillary, not Trump, won the popular vote, but they did at least detect somehow that Trump’s support might be stronger than most of the rest of the polling field believed. USC just started publishing its 2020 polling and today’s new numbers have the race … Biden by 12. He’s gained a few points since last week too, suggesting that he might have gotten a modest convention bounce after all. How does that square with Trafalgar’s Michigan data?
I followed the USC Dornsife poll everyday during 2016 because Nate Silver was focusing on it. For some reason , even though they had good results in 2016 they have revamped their methodology. They increased the size of their participants from 4500 to 8300. The are also increasing the urban size of their sample over the rural sample as compared to 2016. They think this will make their results even more accurate. I find it suspect. You can read their full explanation here:
https://dornsife.usc.edu/news/stories/3295/2020-daybreak-poll-qna-with-jill-darling-survey-director/
Gestapo Gretchen BRAGGING about getting the Big 10 Fall season cancelled is going to be very damaging to Democrats IMO.
Especially as fans watch the SEC, ACC and Big 12 play. They’ll only get more pissed.
Oversampling female and dems. So even better news.
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