Trafalgar poll: Trump now leads by two — in Michigan [First lead for James (R-Senate) as well]

HotAir ^ | ALLAHPUNDIT Posted at 2:01 pm on August 28, 2020

[11th_VA]

I try to give Trafalgar every benefit of the doubt after its stunning success in 2016 and 2018 but I’m a leeeetle skeptical of this one. Especially since they also have Republican John James leading incumbent Gary Peters for Peters’s Senate seat. That’s the first time James has led in any poll all year. Until today, the closest he’d been was three points behind a few weeks ago.

Another reason to be skeptical: This poll was conducted between August 14 and 23, a period encompassing the entire Democratic convention and before the Republican convention had begun. Is it impossible that Biden *lost* ground in Michigan, a state where he’s been leading since the start of the race, while his own convention was happening? Nope, not impossible. But conventions are designed to convince the public to warm up to their candidate. There were no disasters onstage for the Dems last week. It’d be odd if Biden lost votes in a state where he’d been strong until now because of it.

Of course, it’s possible that he lost ground for unrelated reasons, like rioting. But this poll wrapped before Kenosha went up in flames.

conducted Aug 14-23 (pre & post Democrat Convention)

46.6% @realDonaldTrump,

45.2% @JoeBiden,

3.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS,

1.4% Another Party Candidate, 3.6%

—————————————————————-

Aug 14-23 (pre & post Democrat Convention)

48.1% @JohnJamesMI,

46.6% @GaryPeters,

2.1% Another Party Candidate, 3.2% Und.

[11th_VA]

Go James ... if real, well, I won’t get to far ahead ...

[JudyinCanada]

I love John James. All of these wonderful, good-looking conservative blacks.....it does my heart good. I like the older ones, too lol.

[Dr. Sivana]

But conventions are designed to convince the public to warm up to their candidate.

Some conventions are needed to either fire up the base, or reunite a fractured party. The Democrat convention was not well-conceived for persuading the swing population as a whole.

[Midwesterner53]

In fact Trump did lose ground last week and probably more this week.

[lasereye]

Another reason to be skeptical: This poll was conducted between August 14 and 23, a period encompassing the entire Democratic convention and before the Republican convention had begun...It’d be odd if Biden lost votes in a state where he’d been strong until now because of it.

President Trump's approval rating went up during the DNC. James taking the lead is plausible.

[Williams]

It’s only surprising if you view politics as a game without realizing it involves real people and their reactions to real events.

Between people believing Biden is mentally impaired, and the riots, doesn’t surprise me one bit.

There’s a reason Biden is planning to leave the basement and is changing his positions.

[CatOwner]

In fact Trump did lose ground last week and probably more this week.

That seems counter to the reaction of the DEMs in the last 7-10 days.

[Paladin2]

James would be a BIG plus...

[11th_VA]

How can you say Trump lost ground this week ?

[gasport]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/technology/what-if-facebook-is-the-real-silent-majority.html

[Tobias Grimsley]

I couldn't resist, good grief...

[Buckeye McFrog]

Whitmer the Witch is destroying the Democrat brand up there.

[Buckeye McFrog]

In fact Trump did lose ground last week and probably more this week.

If you're going to do suppression trolling you really should use an account that was opened more than two years ago.

[frank ballenger]

It has been decades since Michigan has had anything but two dimwitted rubber stamp Dem US Senators-—always. Hope Gary Peters gets run out by James of the GOP.

Charles Potter, 1952.
Spencer Abraham, 1995.
Otherwise, all Dems all the way.

I believe Debbie Stabenow went through her first term without ever successfully introducing or passing one bill.
Smiled for TV cameras, though. Re-elected.

When I happened 2 or 3 times to hear a stupid dull sounding woman on the radio, I assumed I was hearing the person in front of the supermarket type interviews of passersby about some tornado or other local news event. Wrong. I was hearing Debbie Stabenow, United State Senator !! Embarrassingly uninformed and dumb sounding.

[Mariner]

LOL

It appears the author fails to comprehend and appreciate the extent and effect of rioting before Kenosha.

[11th_VA]

Lol - yeah - my thought after I asked

[BlueStateRightist]

My math has Trump up by 1.4%, not “2”. Just trying to be a bit more accurate.

[sheehan]

Scary that the psycho no-name L candidate could get 3% in MI (the pothead Johnson got 3.5%)

I’m not a big fan of polls this far out - but these Trafaglar guys were spot on in 2016, especially in rust belt states.

[the_Watchman]

There were no disasters onstage for the Dems last week.

I have to disagree with this statement from the article. The Democrats never even mentioned the violence in their strongholds. Forget about addressing the problem. Outside the convention Democrats were even cheering the "non-violent" [cough cough] "demonstrators" on. That was a big hole in their strategy which was noticed even by talking heads in the MSM.

I'll stretch the point a little and claim that that was a "disaster".

[Lod881019]

This guy is a never trumper once in awhile he pops up to bash trump then leaves