"A man's gotta know his limitations"
Posted on 07/10/2020 7:31:08 PM PDT by RandFan
Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), a first-term member who represents a district President Trump won by roughly 7 points in 2016, said that polls showing the president trailing former Vice President Joe Biden are “inaccurate.”
“I don’t believe it,” Slotkin told Politico Magazine when asked about recent polls showing Biden performing well in key swing states, such as Michigan. FiveThirtyEight currently has Biden nearly 10 points ahead of Trump in Slotkin’s state of Michigan.
The former CIA analyst said there are too many variables at play for a poll to accurately reflect what will happen in November.
“Listen, if anyone tells me they can accurately predict what major events are coming in the remainder of 2020, I’ll give them a thousand dollars,” Slotkin said. “I mean, this has been the year of black swans. … I don’t for one minute think this [presidential] race is safe in anyone’s column. I’ve been literally begging people to ignore those polls. They are a snapshot in time. And if 2020 has taught us anything, it’s that we have no idea what’s coming next.”
Slotkin, who was part of a wave of Democrats who won races in 2018, is considered one of the more vulnerable Democrats facing reelection this November. She was one of several swing district Democrats to face scrutiny from Republicans in her district over the House's impeachment vote.
Slotkins said when she hired a pollster in 2018, she used a tactic she learned while working at the Pentagon to probe them on why they didn’t accurately predict the results of the 2016 election.
“He told me that they fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote; that the Trump voter is not a voter in every single election, that they come out for Trump, so they’re hard to count,” Slotkin said of Al Quinlan of GQR, a large Washington-based polling firm.
Surveys often count people they determine are “likely voters,” but Slotkin learned that a person who tells a pollster that they don’t have plans to vote but may ultimately do so “were fundamentally undercounted.”
“I believe that same thing is happening right now,” Slotkin said.
First thing they got right in years. The way they are planning to mass cheat may give them the win though.
“Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.)”
Can we please stop calling them Democrats? These scumbugs today are not democrats, they are Marxists.
ALL lives matter.
MAGA
I wonder if the fact that 6 people showed up to Biden’s latest “rally” is an indication of voter enthusiasm?
There hasn’t been a poll that put a Republican presidential candidate ahead in my lifetime, at least since I was old enough to pay attention, which was Reagan ‘80.
The polls had Carter up right to the end.
The data turned on him in the last week; actually I think it was literally the weekend before the election. IIRC, it was Pat Caddell who gave him the bad news. The MSM, of course, saw nothing, heard nothing, and said nothing about that as the voting started.
During the election of 1984, the pollsters were silent, except when they gave Mondale the edge early in 1984. As the year went on, they kept mum.
poll by conservative Democracy Institute and perhaps it over-examples Republicans, but something rings true about the results nonetheless:
7 Jul: UK Express: Trump SHOCK election poll: Black Lives Matter protests will get Trump re-elected
THE FALLOUT from the Black Lives Matter protests in the US offers Donald Trump his best chance of winning the Presidential election, a shock poll for the Sunday Express has revealed.
By David Maddox
According to the poll conducted by the Washington based thinktank the Democracy Institute, President Trump is neck and neck with his rival Joe Biden on 47 percent. However, Mr Trump would win in the electoral college system by 309 to 229 delegates because he is on course to win the crucial swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where he outpolls Vice President Biden by 48 percent to 44 percent...
Given a choice between which phrases identified their views 71 percent chose “all lives matter” while 29 percent picked “black lives matter”...
In addition, 67 percent prefer President Trump’s law and order message compared to 29 percent who want black community relations improved with the police.
Hopes that a black running mate for Vice President Biden will help seal the campaign for him have also been questioned in the poll with 79 percent saying it would make no difference.
And of greater concern for the Democrats is that Mr Trump is still polling strong with ethnic minority voters – 35 percent for black voters and 34 percent for Hispanics.
Worse still is Mr Biden’s mental health after some stumbling performances and public concerns that he may be suffering from the early stages of dementia have also had an impact.
According to the poll 55 percent believe he is suffering from cognitive problems and 44 percent say that it means they are less likely to vote for him while 58 percent think aged 77 he is too old to be President...
The poll also appears to confirm that President Trump is benefiting from “silent support” which means it is not showing up in a lot of polls and has made Biden the odds on favourite to win.
While 77 percent of Trump voters are “enthusiastic” compared to 43 percent of Biden voters, 66 percent of Trump voters would not admit how they are voting to a friend or relative compared to just one third of Biden backers.
But the US President comes out as top for strong leader 67 percent while Biden is seen as a consensus builder 55 percent and more likeable 60 percent...
Poll Methodology
The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from July 1-3 2020...
The party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 38 percent; Republicans = 38 percent; and Independents = 24 percent.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1305342/Trump-news-Donald-Trump-US-election-2020-latest-Black-Lives-Matter
I, like so many, call them demonrats.
Speaking only for myself, I call them this either because they are Marxists, who are being influenced by Satan, or idiots who are so lacking in discernment that they might as well have a demon on their shoulder. Then there are your basic narcissists, who are ruled by one of the lessor demons.
To wit:
Student Invokes Satan To Drive Conservative Group From Campus
https://freebeacon.com/campus/student-invokes-satan-to-drive-conservative-group-from-campus/
Remember when Kerry ran against GWB and the exit polls had him winning in a landslide? All his minions were picking out drapes and then the REAL votes came in and they screamed and moaned that we cheated. It was almost as good as beating HRC in 2016!
There is a HUGE silent majority..people like me, who live in Commiefornia, who keeps her mouth shut about who she supports because of fear of being killed..yeah I know, its a shame isnt it, we have to be in fear to say who we support but it is what it is
The funniest poll was the Gallup poll from July 21-22, 1988 that showed Iron Mike Dukakis 17 points ahead of GHW Bush. Bush 41 ended up winning the popular vote by 7,000,000 and the electoral college 426-111 (1 faithless ‘Rat elector in WV voted for Lloyd Bentsen).
“The problem for Trump is this COVID nonsense.. He can’t hold his massive rallies which are so popular in certain states.”
No, I bet would bet a dollar to a donut hole he could hold one incredible Televised Billy Graham type political crusade.
Get a controlled, distanced crowd all wearing Trump mask and buy 65 minutes of air time on a local station. Or just put it on YouTube
Wow
Yep
Worse still is Mr Biden’s mental health after some stumbling performances and public concerns that he may be suffering from the early stages of dementia have also had an impact.
This could be a problem on the debate stage if he forgets his lines he could leave a bad impression.
I don’t know what he’s so worried about. Between the dem’s usual vote fraud, and the boost in fraud that they’re working to get out of the COVID farce, I’d say old Creepy Joe has a decent chance. Not a decent chance to actually win, but to win by massive fraud.
Ikr
Shush.
To add numbers to the inestimable Mr. Dilbert’s summary, there are also many moderate Democrat voters, some who may not have voted for serveral or many years, who may come out in strength for Trump given the pap put out by Biden and cohorts. Call these “Scoop Jackson voters.”
I don’t do pols and I suspect many conservatives don’t either. Leftists always have to shout their opinions out to polsters.
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