A majority (55%) of likely voters surveyed thought it was more likely (much more and somewhat more likely combined) that Vice President Biden is in the early stages of dementia, while 45% thought it was less likely (much less and somewhat less likely combined). Overall, subgroups who normally approve of Trump's job as president, were the most likely to believe Biden could be suffering from dementia. Thus, majorities of Republicans (77% more likely/23% less likely) and Independents (56% more likely/44% less likely) thought Joe Biden had early-onset dementia; while nearly a third of Democrats (32% more likely/68% less likely) thought this was the case
At the same time, some important subgroups did not believe the vice president was exhibiting a declining mental capacity. While a majority of men (60% more likely/40% less likely) thought it this was likely, women (50% more likely/50% less likely) were less likely to think that the vice president was in the early stages of dementia.
There was also an inverse relationship in the data between age and the likelihood of voters believing Biden had early-onset dementia, for example; as the age of voters increased the likelihood of voters believing Biden was exhibiting early-onset dementia decreased. Younger voters aged 18-24 (60% more likely/40% less likely) and 18-29 (59% more likely/41% less likely) were more likely to believe Biden had dementia than older voters aged 65+ (50% more likely/50% less likely).
Likely voters living in medium size cities (61% more likely/39% less likely) were more likely to believe Biden had dementia than voters living in the suburbs (52% more likely/48% less likely) and large cities (55% more likely/45% less likely). Suburban women (49% more likely/51% less likely) did not think Biden was mentally slipping but men living in urban areas (62% more likely/38% less likely) believed so.
African Americans (43% more likely/58% less likely) were less likely than Hispanics (61% more likely/39% less likely) to think Biden was in the early stages of dementia.
The voters most likely to believe Biden was having cognitive issues were staunch Trump supporters; weekly Walmart Shoppers (64% more likely/36% less likely), weekly Amazon shoppers (67% more likely/34% less likely) and union voters (71% more likely/29% less likely).
The issue of both candidates' physical fitness will be one of importance in the upcoming presidential election. Trump is 74 and is already taking heat about his health due to some unflattering images of him walking slowly. Questions surrounding Biden's health and physical fitness will be front and center because the president will use this against the vice president. Truth be told, Biden has not looked that great in his few video appearances, and has yet to really hit the trail with a winning message due to Covid-19. At some point the former vice president will need to be his best if he is going to win over voters, and appeal to important swing voters in order to defeat President Trump. Right now voters have questions concerning Biden's mental health and stamina, but will it cost him votes in November is undiagnosable at the moment.
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Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
6/1/20 - 6/2/20
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1007 likely voters in the US.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 36% Democrat, 36% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1007 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby's dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.
