Posted on 05/21/2020 4:39:12 AM PDT by Rennes Templar
New York (CNN Business)The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.
Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.
The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.
The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.
"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."
The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976 (although two candidates lost the popular vote but won the presidency in that span, including George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016).
(Excerpt) Read more at ntknetwork.com ...
“No, they wont.”
The average American does not think that deep. They do not care, they vote for their paycheck. That is why you see Democratic governors delaying reopening. You are a minority.
Hopefully Americans will see the truth since Russia was proven a hoax.
funny how Roosevelt kept getting reelected in a depression for 8 years
Same model that had hillary up by 10 and 2.5 million deaths.
Seriously? You think because I criticize his tactics (not his strategy or his objectives) that I am a stealth Never Trumper like Kristol. I guess you missed the second half of the sentence where I said despite accomplishing good things.
Political idolatry is ,or should be a trait, of the left. Us conservatives should never practice political idolatry as we need to support ideas, not people. That's the sick thing about the Never Trumpers is that they turned their back on a lifetime of conservative principles (a lot of them have stated they would vote for socialists or progressives against the President) just because they hate one person- Donald Trump. If you think I am among that pathetic group of people you are very much mistaken. I am loyal to my principles, not to a person no matter who they are
The Dems have won the popular vote in 6 out of the last 7 elections. No surprise if that happens again. But we don’t elect our Presidents using the popular vote.
The economy will be nearly full speed by July 4, unless the dems can think of another way to harm it.
This model is as accurate as the 2.2 million people dying from the chinese virus.
This isn’t political idolatry. Not for a second. But, given what has been going on for the last few years, and then some, you’re either on the train or your not. There is no compromise anymore. Not with the Left. Not with the Never Trumpers. Not with anyone. The aforementioned want to destroy this country and remake it to their liking...ie The Hunger Games and Divergent. No two ways about it.
But, if you have the time, can you provide an example of his tactics that you criticize? The man may be a little rough around the edges for some, but for about 60+ million folks, he’s exactly what was needed and will be needed in the future.
At the end of the day, the President isn’t a Conservative in what is probably the most accepted definition. He’s more a pragmatist and has common sense that definitely leans to the Right. The man says what he says, feels what he feels. Nothing more. Nothing less. And what is Right, is more or less, ALWAYS, something that those of us on the Right support.
If his language or tactics seem crude to you, maybe it’s because he’s learned in a very short time that perhaps that is the BEST and ONLY way he’ll get his message out there. He’s beaten the Left and the Dem’s at every turn. The media certainly isn’t going to help him. He, with one short tweet, can send the entire world into spasms. And, if I’m not mistaken, he hasn’t been wrong about much, if anything at all.
It’s time for those of us on the Right to start going at their throats the same way the Left has been going at ours since the 60s and beyond. Enough of this....Let’s play nice and come to an agreement, sh*t....they’ve always gotten what they wanted, no matter what. Look at the Covid-19 stimulus/PPP bill. Why in the f*ck does the Kennedy Center need/get $25million? Let their patrons, the elite from DC donate to keep it going and prevent them from laying everyone off as they did when they got their money.
Can’t speak for anyone esle, but when I pushed the button on the screen for Donald Trump, I knew what I was voting for. And I was and am hoping that he gets even more gangsta and angry in his second term.
In the immortal words of Max McGee, former Green Bay wide receiver: “When it’s 3rd and 10, you can take the milk drinkers and I’ll take the whiskey drinkers every time.”
I know the President doesn’t drink, but he for damn sure acts like a whiskey drinking when it’s 3rd & 10.
Nonsense. It will be improving but it won't be anywhere near full speed. Not in a month and a half. We won't even know all the business that have gone belly-up by then.
Look who he replaced? When compared to the cratering that Hoover oversaw anyone would have looked good by comparison.
Oxford Economics maybe had a pre-existing bias against the President?
When they predicted not just a Hillary win but a Democrat Senate?
Would that have been useful to lead off the conversation?
Are we just going to go full Drudge and make this place an #MSM mud hole?
But these types of #MSM #Narrative garbage can be debunked with just a little research.
By all means post it, but provide the context. This isn't even a 'bad poll', it's a shitty economic model utterly unsupportable, from a company who said the Democrats were going to take back the Senate in #2016 when almost no other serious polling or CFR-shadow-econ org was pimping that absurdity.
Greg posts a lot to his Twitter timeline but he hides his bias by simply retweeting links to garbage, anti-Trump #MSMr's.
This guy, on Election 2016, posted this:
What did "importance of #uncertainty" actually link to??
It linked to this horseface nutjob pulling "GLOBAL MARKETS -10% IF TRUMP WINS" out of her ass. Which not only is an object lesson in how Jim Cramer regarded Trump going in, but notably EManchin here got promptly handed off from TheStreet to Vox, which is where women with Imposter Syndrome go to be fired. |
Before you Trump haters orgasm in tour clothes. not even you will like what he will be replaced with. Within a year, you will secretly crying yourself to sleep wishing and praying for President Trump back. Before its over, you will learn, as the people of North Korea and Venezuela how good a roasted rat tastes. If you can catch one.
Meanwhile, the Democrat you helped replace him with will be living high on the hog.
Of course it’s garbage. I just put it out there so folks can observe first hand what games the opposition plays, and to have a little fun with it.
The Stock Market is fine at 24,401 today and precious metals are kickin’ it:
CNN is deeply saddened. :(
Models schmodels.
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