Posted on 04/25/2020 3:55:24 PM PDT by Bruiser 10
On the menu today: The possibility of another wave of Americans moving out of the big cities, the likelihood of some future pandemic further down the road, and how the Red AmericaBlue America divide is likely to be altered when we emerge from this crisis.
Yesterday on my work Facebook page, a reader asked, Why is it that the places Covid-19 show up the most are in Democrat controlled areas? As much as Id like to believe that all the troubles in the world can eventually be traced back to Bill de Blasio, I responded, Probably because the places it shows up the most are large densely-packed cities with a lot of international and domestic air travel and high use of mass transit, where Democrats have been winning elections more than Republicans for at least a generation and in many cases several generations.
You can split red and blue America in a lot of ways race, age, religiosity but arguably the strongest factor is geography. The Big Sort that Bill Bishop described has been at work for two decades. Sure, there are conservatives and Republicans who live in big cities and inner-ring suburbs, just rarely in the numbers that could make a difference. And there are progressives and Democrats who live in rural areas and exurbs, but again, rarely in the numbers that could make a difference in elections.
Kevin Williamson has noted that conservatives often dont even try to persuade city-dwellers of the value of their ideas, and lapse into a casual to overt contempt of life in the big city.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Why is it that the places Covid-19 show up the most are in Democrat controlled areas?
I won’t say it.
“Giuliani” has been all over [NYC] WABC radio for the last few weeks.
Red States dont seed their nursing homes with COVID patients. This herd thinning process is known as the Cuomo Doctrine.
Bump
I just saw him on FOX the other night.
It was either Laura or Hannity.
He looks good, and was smiling a lot.
What everyone needs to be looking forward to is MOVING UP and NOT COMING BACK. For believers in Christ it will be a move up in less than a nano second.
. For those new to the data, I standardize each municipality's cumulative COVID-19 fatality count per GitHub by its population, then multiply the resulting quotient by the US' population of 329MM to put everyone on a common/US scale. I then index each municipality's time-series to Day 1, where their size-adjusted fatality count is right before it breaches 1,000 people. This corrects for what I call the "Golf Problem" where broadcasts of the Masters etc have to show not only each golfer's score, but which hole they're at. I also list the Day 1 date and the population for reference. I've posted the history back to Day 1 on my About page.
Note for the US as nation, that Day 1 is March 25, which means Day 31 is April 24 for that row of data. You can do the math for the other municipalities to find out what Day XX means for them in calendar times; as a general rule, the last actual data point is the freshest date, but on a Golf timeline it gives each municipality's score as of the "31st hole." The sort order is Day 31 where Day 31 data exist, and then Day 25 for all other municipalities that haven't played their 31st hole.
The international ranking of the US hasn't changed in a long time. Sweden and the Netherland's "hands off" approach hasn't yielded fewer fatalities but they haven't wrecked their economy. We'll see what happens throug the end of the year. Stateside, for Day 31 the municipalities with higher adjusted fatalities than the US as a whole remain New York (Blue), New Jersey (Blue), Connecticut (Blue), Massachusetts (Blue), Michigan (Red), Louisiana (Red) and District of Columbia (Blue), respectively.
While I don't track this data at the city/county level, I built a logistic regression to see if Red/Blue states' (defined by the 2016 Presidential election results) ranking and logged fatality count on Day 25 was different. It depends: the regression with the ranking had an overall p-value of 0.095 but on the logged adjusted fatality count the p-value was a stronger 0.043.
Country | Date of Day 1=day priot to hitting 1,000+ population-adjusted deaths | Population | Day 25 | Day 26 | Day 27 | Day 28 | Day 29 | Day 30 | Day 31 | Day 32 | Day 33 |
San Marino | 3/3/20 | 33,574 | 206,132 | 215,948 | 215,948 | 245,396 | 255,211 | 255,211 | 294,475 | 294,475 | 314,106 |
Andorra | 3/21/20 | 77,543 | 131,749 | 140,249 | 140,249 | 148,749 | 148,749 | 152,999 | 157,249 | 157,249 | 157,249 |
Belgium | 3/19/20 | 11,524,454 | 102,947 | 111,611 | 118,875 | 126,967 | 138,892 | 147,643 | 155,935 | 162,513 | 166,659 |
Spain | 3/13/20 | 47,100,396 | 93,346 | 98,271 | 103,498 | 108,081 | 112,517 | 116,190 | 120,410 | 124,237 | 126,336 |
West Bank and Gaza | 3/25/20 | 11,700 | 56,334 | 84,502 | 84,502 | 112,669 | 112,669 | 112,669 | 112,669 | - | - |
France | 3/18/20 | 67,076,000 | 68,052 | 70,809 | 73,629 | 77,373 | 84,448 | 88,147 | 91,891 | 95,045 | 97,006 |
Italy | 3/5/20 | 60,243,406 | 58,966 | 63,408 | 67,986 | 71,963 | 76,121 | 80,311 | 84,036 | 86,908 | 90,388 |
United Kingdom | 3/20/20 | 66,435,550 | 56,287 | 60,166 | 63,961 | 68,252 | 72,459 | 76,878 | 79,840 | 82,097 | 86,204 |
Ireland | 3/25/20 | 4,921,500 | 38,236 | 40,847 | 46,003 | 48,883 | 51,494 | 53,168 | 67,900 | - | - |
Netherlands | 3/17/20 | 17,451,031 | 47,589 | 50,101 | 51,876 | 53,500 | 55,804 | 59,392 | 62,829 | 65,549 | 68,230 |
Sweden | 3/23/20 | 10,333,456 | 42,512 | 44,649 | 48,189 | 49,114 | 50,390 | 56,290 | 61,775 | 64,454 | 68,632 |
United States | 3/25/20 | 329,556,365 | 38,664 | 40,661 | 42,094 | 44,444 | 46,622 | 49,954 | 51,949 | - | - |
Switzerland | 3/16/20 | 8,586,550 | 36,385 | 38,457 | 39,762 | 42,449 | 43,677 | 45,059 | 47,553 | 49,165 | 50,931 |
Luxembourg | 3/17/20 | 613,894 | 28,989 | 33,283 | 35,431 | 37,041 | 35,968 | 37,041 | 37,041 | 38,652 | 38,652 |
Macedonia | 3/24/20 | 679,600 | 23,761 | 23,761 | 24,731 | 26,186 | 26,671 | 27,156 | 27,156 | 27,641 | - |
Portugal | 3/23/20 | 10,276,617 | 20,171 | 21,069 | 22,031 | 22,897 | 23,570 | 24,436 | 25,174 | 26,296 | 27,387 |
Germany | 3/25/20 | 83,149,300 | 17,673 | 18,176 | 19,270 | 19,948 | 20,923 | 22,096 | 22,829 | - | - |
Denmark | 3/22/20 | 5,822,763 | 17,489 | 18,168 | 19,017 | 19,583 | 20,092 | 20,602 | 20,941 | 21,734 | 22,300 |
Austria | 3/23/20 | 8,902,600 | 15,177 | 15,955 | 16,399 | 16,732 | 17,398 | 18,176 | 18,879 | 19,323 | 19,620 |
Iran | 3/9/20 | 83,331,064 | 12,497 | 13,027 | 13,652 | 14,249 | 14,787 | 15,313 | 15,791 | 16,254 | 16,737 |
Iceland | 3/23/20 | 364,260 | 7,238 | 8,143 | 8,143 | 8,143 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 | 9,047 |
Cyprus | 3/23/20 | 875,900 | 4,515 | 4,515 | 4,515 | 4,515 | 4,515 | 4,515 | 4,891 | 4,891 | 5,267 |
Municipality | Date of Day 1 = day prior to breaching size-adj 1,000 COVID19 fatalities | Population (MM) | Day 25 | Day 26 | Day 27 | Day 28 | Day 29 | Day 30 | Day 31 | Day 32 | Day 33 | Day 34 |
New York | 3/20/20 | 19,795,791 | 167,410 | 180,362 | 192,881 | 202,970 | 213,458 | 222,448 | 230,888 | 238,846 | 246,854 | 254,745 |
New Jersey | 3/23/20 | 8,958,013 | 129,424 | 141,270 | 149,731 | 154,587 | 161,025 | 174,858 | 186,263 | 197,483 | 206,644 | - |
Connecticut | 3/23/20 | 3,590,886 | 89,114 | 95,080 | 99,668 | 103,431 | 122,154 | 130,597 | 141,702 | 150,421 | 161,892 | - |
Massachusetts | 3/25/20 | 6,794,422 | 75,666 | 82,748 | 87,744 | 95,116 | 105,836 | 114,469 | 123,976 | - | - | - |
Michigan | 3/24/20 | 9,922,576 | 73,932 | 76,622 | 79,345 | 81,903 | 89,608 | 93,394 | 98,874 | 102,428 | - | - |
Louisiana | 3/20/20 | 4,670,724 | 62,373 | 71,475 | 77,825 | 81,565 | 85,587 | 89,397 | 91,443 | 93,701 | 99,134 | 103,932 |
District of Columbia | 3/24/20 | 672,228 | 42,161 | 44,612 | 47,064 | 51,476 | 54,907 | 62,261 | 68,144 | 75,007 | - | - |
United States | 3/25/20 | 329,556,365 | 38,664 | 40,661 | 42,094 | 44,444 | 46,622 | 49,954 | 51,949 | - | - | - |
Colorado | 3/24/20 | 5,456,574 | 23,494 | 24,702 | 25,427 | 27,058 | 29,232 | 31,768 | 33,641 | 40,586 | - | - |
Georgia | 3/23/20 | 10,214,860 | 19,712 | 21,325 | 21,616 | 22,003 | 24,745 | 26,133 | 27,004 | 28,101 | 28,681 | - |
Nevada | 3/24/20 | 2,890,845 | 17,214 | 17,670 | 18,012 | 18,582 | 18,582 | 21,318 | 22,230 | 23,142 | - | - |
Washington | 3/8/20 | 7,170,351 | 11,444 | 12,501 | 13,467 | 14,616 | 15,811 | 17,603 | 18,798 | 19,763 | 20,958 | 22,199 |
Vermont | 3/18/20 | 626,042 | 13,160 | 14,213 | 14,740 | 15,266 | 15,792 | 18,424 | 18,424 | 19,477 | 19,477 | 20,004 |
Rhode Island | 3/29/20 | 1,056,298 | 56,471 | 58,966 | 63,022 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Pennsylvania | 3/28/20 | 12,802,503 | 41,701 | 44,275 | 44,095 | 45,974 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Maryland | 3/31/20 | 6,006,401 | 39,669 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Illinois | 3/27/20 | 12,859,995 | 34,826 | 37,902 | 40,413 | 43,463 | 46,230 | - | - | - | - | - |
Indiana | 3/26/20 | 6,619,680 | 27,979 | 28,327 | 31,364 | 32,907 | 35,148 | 36,890 | - | - | - | - |
Delaware | 3/27/20 | 945,934 | 25,084 | 28,568 | 31,007 | 32,052 | 34,839 | - | - | - | - | - |
Mississippi | 3/27/20 | 2,992,333 | 18,613 | 20,154 | 21,256 | 22,137 | 23,018 | - | - | - | - | - |
Ohio | 3/29/20 | 11,614,373 | 17,309 | 18,614 | 19,579 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Florida | 3/29/20 | 20,271,272 | 15,054 | 16,030 | 16,989 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Kentucky | 3/30/20 | 4,425,092 | 14,448 | 15,118 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Alabama | 3/31/20 | 4,858,979 | 14,175 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Wisconsin | 3/29/20 | 5,771,337 | 14,104 | 14,675 | 14,961 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Virginia | 3/29/20 | 8,382,993 | 13,720 | 14,742 | 16,236 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Minnesota | 3/31/20 | 5,489,594 | 13,267 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Kansas | 3/29/20 | 2,911,641 | 12,564 | 12,677 | 13,243 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Arizona | 3/30/20 | 6,828,065 | 12,404 | 12,935 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Oklahoma | 3/27/20 | 3,911,338 | 12,049 | 13,818 | 14,239 | 15,082 | 15,840 | - | - | - | - | - |
Maine | 3/30/20 | 1,329,328 | 10,908 | 11,652 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
California | 3/27/20 | 39,144,818 | 10,296 | 11,079 | 11,997 | 13,075 | 13,630 | - | - | - | - | - |
Idaho | 3/28/20 | 1,654,930 | 10,156 | 10,753 | 10,753 | 10,753 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Tennessee | 3/31/20 | 6,600,299 | 8,987 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
South Carolina | 3/27/20 | 4,896,146 | 8,346 | 9,087 | 9,423 | 10,096 | 10,568 | - | - | - | - | - |
Oregon | 3/27/20 | 4,028,977 | 6,135 | 6,380 | 6,380 | 6,789 | 7,035 | - | - | - | - | - |
North Dakota | 3/29/20 | 756,927 | 6,095 | 6,531 | 6,531 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Arkansas | 3/31/20 | 2,978,204 | 5,201 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Montana | 3/29/20 | 1,032,949 | 4,467 | 4,467 | 4,467 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
It’s odd he attributes geography to the political differences in our country. It’s the underlying moral values. Is God in control or not? Is Jesus God or not? If these are yes, then you behave differently.
Well said! Thank you!
Dont come to Arizona unless you can prove you vote republican. Most of those looking berals drag their filth habits with them.
Tofflers Mega-Trends: Big City people move to the suburbs and small town people move to the big city.
You forgot to add, Bless your pea picking,Heart!”
A lot of the city folk won’t be able to survive out here. The conveniences they rely on aren’t here. They will have to learn how to deal with problems they are ordinarily used to just picking up a phone to handle. I’ve lived in the country off and on before I moved out here full time in 1990. The new sheriff (who didn’t know me) came out to pay me a visit shortly after we moved in. His welcome conversation included this:
Sheriff: “Do you own any guns?”
I replied: “Sure, I’ve been shooting all my life.”
Sheriff: “Good. We don’t have 911 in this county yet, and we just can’t protect you out here.”
I have a feeling this is going to be a spoiler for many city clickers.
Send Snake Plissken in - only this time to keep them corralled...
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