Posted on 04/19/2020 5:39:38 AM PDT by blam
Researchers at MIT trained a neural network model on data that predicted the spread of the coronavirus from late January to early March, including information on how countries implemented quarantine measures.
The researchers have a dire warning, as detailed in a preprint uploaded to medRxiv earlier this month: reopening the US too early would lead to a catastrophe.
“We further demonstrate that relaxing or reversing quarantine measures right now will lead to an exponential explosion in the infected case count, thus nullifying the role played by all measures implemented in the US since mid March 2020,” reads the paper.
The researchers’ model focused on four locations: Wuhan, Italy, South Korea and the US — and found some good news.
“Our results unequivocally indicate,” they wrote, “that the countries in which rapid government interventions and strict public health measures for quarantine and isolation were implemented were successful in halting the spread of infection and prevent it from exploding exponentially.”
The neural network was able to closely match the predictions by just feeding it data from January 24 to March 3. It was able to validate the US’s current infected curve growth and was even able to pinpoint a “halting of infection spread by April 20.”
The danger in reopening the gates and relaxing measures is very real. Singapore experienced a spike in new COVID-19 cases this week after initially seeing major successes after implementing lockdown measures.
The news also comes on the same day that president Donald Trump revealed his plans for “Opening Up America Again,” a guideline document for state governors.
“America wants to be open and Americans want to be open,” he said during today’s announcement. “A national shutdown is not a sustainable long-term solution.”
Epidemiologists found major flaws with the statistics model that the White House’s
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(Excerpt) Read more at futurism.com ...
The same amount of people will get infected, and the same amount die, whether restrictions lifted earlier or later. As long as med centers don’t collapse from overload.
Meanwhile in the USA, close to 1,000,000 lose their job every day!
So there’s an uptick. So what? Let it burn itself out naturally. Just monitor medcenters for overload, and deal with them locally if/when it happens.
How many people have been tested in those counties in Texas? Are there really no cases? or just no positive tests because no tests at all have been given?
‘I’m sure the study on economic harm is coming out any day now.’
since you’re so into believing studies, I assume you’d believe the economic harm model when someone comes out with it...
“At what point does the virus stop being a reason and start being an excuse?”
Oh, about 3 weeks ago.
I would imagine it's more of the latter.
‘then you can start to unwind the quarantines and manage the outbreak such that there are enough beds etc.’
and I’ll finish your thought as well: we must maintain draconian lockdowns until every possible exigency has been unwound, which of course is completely indefinite...
As the song goes, “I’m looking for the guy supplying the dimes.”
“How many dead you OK with?”
When did you stop beating your wife?
Same type of bullshit question - go back to DU
Did you happen to notice the ‘/s’ after my comment?
Look it up if you don’t know what it means.
Farr’s Law of Epidemics
So we need to stay locked down because Skynet told us to? I, for one, welcome our new computer overlord.
Pretty much everything is open here in NC even with the “Lock Down”.
About the only things closed are Mom & Pop stores, stores that sell only cloths and some manufacturing.
Chain food joints are doing take out - fast food is drive through only - but the small independent restaurants are closed or struggling.
People are out and about pretty much as normal - but many are now wearing masks.
Let’s just shut down MIT and see if that makes things better.
You are a petty, weak, small-minded fool, and your days of hand-wringing fear-mongering, are thankfully coming to an end.
Why should we believe them?
We now know that “scientist” are not beyond creating report to fit their own personal (or paid) bias. I point to the entire man made climate hoax as an example.
It is becoming evident that there are more cases of corona virus then previously thought. Most with the virus are not showing any symptoms.
The math used to determine just how lethal this virus is is fairly simple. Take the number of people infected and divide into the number that died.
The problem is that they do not know how many people are infected (but not showing symptoms). What we do know it is a lot more than what they do know. So the number showing how lethal the disease is, is going to be much lower then has been reported.
In other words, if we open the nation back up, more people will be exposed to the virus but relatively few will die (and they are more than likely already suffering from some other aliment).
Dear Mr. President: Please lift the State of Emergency... no longer needed.
“How many dead you OK with?”
How many you not OK with?
On average over 7,700 people die per day in the US.
The virus was listed as causing 1,867 yesterday. 2 in my state.
How much does the Chinese communist government invest in MIT? How about a full disclosure.
Reopening too late WILL cause explosion of bankruptcies.
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