Posted on 04/19/2020 5:39:38 AM PDT by blam
Researchers at MIT trained a neural network model on data that predicted the spread of the coronavirus from late January to early March, including information on how countries implemented quarantine measures.
The researchers have a dire warning, as detailed in a preprint uploaded to medRxiv earlier this month: reopening the US too early would lead to a catastrophe.
“We further demonstrate that relaxing or reversing quarantine measures right now will lead to an exponential explosion in the infected case count, thus nullifying the role played by all measures implemented in the US since mid March 2020,” reads the paper.
The researchers’ model focused on four locations: Wuhan, Italy, South Korea and the US — and found some good news.
“Our results unequivocally indicate,” they wrote, “that the countries in which rapid government interventions and strict public health measures for quarantine and isolation were implemented were successful in halting the spread of infection and prevent it from exploding exponentially.”
The neural network was able to closely match the predictions by just feeding it data from January 24 to March 3. It was able to validate the US’s current infected curve growth and was even able to pinpoint a “halting of infection spread by April 20.”
The danger in reopening the gates and relaxing measures is very real. Singapore experienced a spike in new COVID-19 cases this week after initially seeing major successes after implementing lockdown measures.
The news also comes on the same day that president Donald Trump revealed his plans for “Opening Up America Again,” a guideline document for state governors.
“America wants to be open and Americans want to be open,” he said during today’s announcement. “A national shutdown is not a sustainable long-term solution.”
Epidemiologists found major flaws with the statistics model that the White House’s
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(Excerpt) Read more at futurism.com ...
‘reopening the US too early would lead to a catastrophe’
we must wait until Wednesday, November 4, at the earliest...
I imagine we’re going to find out who is right on these predictions.
Very Very Interesting... Have to wonder if they input variables for the Temperature and Humility levels for the summer months. Mostly likely not
AN explosion of the sniffles.
Do you mean the type of “social distancing” that we saw once Florida opened it’s beaches back up just the other day?
Face it..once things open, many people will not do enough “social distancing” and the number of cases are going to increase like crazy.
Whether those cases are symptomatic or worse, require hospitalization, remains to be seen.
Wow, the Deep State™ gas lighting has really worked on you.
Final “numbers” ( cooking the books, anyway ) will not be different if we hadn’t shut down at all. Senior Center, advisedly, should always take precautions....for anything, even the Flu..
How many dead you OK with?
‘Face it..once things open, many people will not do enough “social distancing” and the number of cases are going to increase like crazy.’
I’ll finish your thought for you: ‘therefore, we must continue the lockdowns until there are no more cases out there to increase...’
it’s really hard to optimize two variables that are mutually exclusive: Repair the economy / Contain the virus
If you try to do both, it’s very likely you’ll accomplish neither.
There are certainly places we can start opening up. There are 18 counties in Texas that have no cases. We need the antibodies test!
“...reopening the US too early would lead to a catastrophe.”
Or not. There is some anecdotal evidence out there that the Wuhan virus has spread MUCH further in asymptomatic form than previously recognized, and much of the “herd immunity” is already established. Waiting for a vaccine may be an exercise in futility, and DEFINITELY no reason for an extended lockdown lasting a year or more.
More divining the future by killing chickens and reading the entrails. Few sorcerers are that good, and there is no way of discerning the good ones from the charlatans.
MIT, engineer some buildings and stay away from people who want to work.
MIT is welcome to stay shut.
And...? Reopening to late WILL cause massive deaths and irreparable harm, which delights the left.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I’m sure the study on economic harm is coming out any day now./s
Being MIT, we obviously should pay some attention.
BUT...given that none of the models have proven to have been even mediocre, who knows?
If you set the variable for “contain the virus” at “..so as not to overwhelm the health system,” and if you further know a lot more than we do about how prevalent the disease has been, and what % of infected people end up in hospital, then you can start to unwind the quarantines and manage the outbreak such that there are enough beds etc.
Would be nice if we had sufficient antibody testing and even sufficient virus testing, but that ship sailed a long time ago when Pence did nothing for a month or six weeks about increasing preparedness.
Protect those that need protecting and let every else GO ON WITH THEIR LIVES!
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