I give up.
Posted on 04/16/2020 8:08:00 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
India is four times more populous than the US, but has just 2% the number of cases and only 1.5% of the number of Covid-19 deaths. How has the country, whose per capita income is just tenth of the US, avoided being flattened by the pandemic?
There are four possible explanations:
1. The epidemic may have struck later than in other countries. Since epidemics have exponential growth at the start, a small delay can have massive effects on the number of cases.
2. India’s 21-day lockdown may have successfully suppressed the epidemic. Physical distancing is one of the best ways to slow the epidemic and, if anything, many have criticized the lockdown for being too draconian in that regard.
3. India has not been able to test enough to count all cases and deaths. Without sufficient testing, many deaths may not be labeled with Covid-19 for official statistics, leading to an underestimation of the severity of the crisis.
4. India may have protective characteristics against Covid-19. Researchers have proposed that the low share of elderly in the population, the high temperatures and humidity in India, widespread BCG vaccination for tuberculosis, or resistance to malaria have helped India escape the brunt of the pandemic.
First, we can rule out that India is in an early stage of the pandemic. The first infected travelers from Wuhan reached Kerala, southwest India, on January 29. While it is true that Kerala acted quickly and contained a potential outbreak, more carriers reached other states by early March.
While the lockdown will certainly have an effect on the pandemic in India in the long run, there has not been enough time for its impact to be felt. So the current low level of deaths is really telling us about what happened before the lockdown began.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
Other explanations center on universal BCG vaccination in India, or domestic Hydroxychloroquine use to combat malaria. While it is true, for instance, that countries with BCG vaccination appear so far to have less transmission, these countries are also warmer, have younger populations, and—because they are poorer—likely tested late. So it is hard to know whether there is a true link between Covid-19 and BCG or malaria burdens. Further analysis is required, though it may not come fast enough to help in this epidemic.
Ultimately, India’s relatively light exposure to Covid-19 remains a puzzle. It may have certain characteristics that protect it from the deadliest impact, but they do not suggest that it will escape the pandemic unscathed. Great care and vigilance are still necessary.
The author's background:
Anup Malani is a professor at the University of Chicago Law School and Pritzker School of Medicine; Arpit Gupta is an assistant professor of finance at the NYU Stern School of Business; and Reuben Abraham is CEO of the IDFC Foundation and IDFC Institute in Mumbai.
Domestic antimalarial Hydroxychloroquine use would also explain why Bangladesh hasn’t been hit hard.
I give up.
It’s because they hate the Chinese.
IMHO couple of reasons:
1) Extreme social distancing. Cops there are actually caning people who violate stay-at-home orders.
2) India is awash with Malaria and those who can afford to do so typically take HCQ as a prophylactic.
#1 is curious as at any given time there are at least fifteen diseases circulating in India that are worse than this one.
Plague killed them first?
“There are four possible explanations”. Then deep down: “another explanation is the medicine which is helping people”. MSM spends a lot of time making their articles are just twisted enough.
I cannot imagine it is at all related, but my understanding is that Yellow Fever has never had a presence in Asia despite Asia having the same species of mosquito that Africa and the Caribbean do. I think one theory is that some other, milder, virus in Asia is endemic and effectively blocks Yellow Fever from moving into the same space.
Maybe India is benefiting from something like that.
The closed borders early.
The imposed strict social distancing and contact tracing.
But, India is on a tear. Less than two weeks ago their numbers were in the low 100’s—roughly 400.
They are now about 12,000. They are growing about 10% per day.
I would suggest all of the reasons mentioned above—but I would caution folks not to be too excited as they may merely be behind “our” curve. And remember, our curve is NYC based. The rest of the US is pretty much behind “our curve.”
Curry? It’s been speculated that the reason arthritis is less common in India is because of curry.
Or Africa- with primitive medicine
You make a good point. Even in the worst parts of India they are exposed to some nasty stuff from birth.
Poor immune systems would not last long in the environment.
199. That`s the number of tests they have done per million residents. Plus many people are too poor to even contemplate getting medical help.
I have been watching You Tube videos of Mumbai slum population life. What I viewed is rechedness on an unbelievable scale.
From my observations, I will argue that India lacks the capability to gather and disseminate covid data at a meaningful level.
LA tent cities are Mumbai slums in the infant stage
RE: Domestic antimalarial Hydroxychloroquine use would also explain why Bangladesh hasn’t been hit hard.
Ahhh, but how many Indians and Bangladeshis are suffering side effects from taking these anti-malarial pills?
The HCQ might be it, but I’m betting the real reason is because no one is testing (or cares about) the deaths in the lower castes.
At the middle of March there were two places in Africa to be tested.
Keep an eye on South Africa, as they move into Winter it will be interesting to watch their cases change.
Perhaps somthing related to most of the nation being below the Tropic of Cancer.
Did you mean to say 'wretchedness' or 'ratchetness'.
(Not sure 'wretchedness' is a word but I know 'ratchetness' is)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.