Posted on 03/28/2020 6:09:15 PM PDT by rintintin
New Yorks coronavirus outbreak has violently erupted over the past few days, and the state is now driving the national epidemic while on the West Coast, public health experts are wondering if an early and aggressive response saved California from a similar fate.
California reported some of the earliest coronavirus cases in the United States in late January. And in the first week of March, California and New York were neck and neck on cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. But over the past week, New York case counts have doubled every few days, and the state now has nearly 10 times the cases California does: 38,000 to 4,200.
Infectious-disease experts say early maneuvers in California, especially in the Bay Area first discouraging people from gathering in crowds and then ordering them to shelter in place may have had a dramatic impact, even if they came only a few days ahead of those in New York.
But other factors may also be in play. New York is testing far more people three times as many as California and therefore identifying more cases, for example. And its possible that whats happening 3,000 miles away could be Californias future.
New York may just be three or four days in front of us. Were going to see an increase in the number of cases here as well, said Dr. Warner Greene, a senior investigator at the Gladstone Institutes in San Francisco who specializes in HIV but is studying the new coronavirus. Days matter they really matter. You think youre fine, youre absolutely fine, but this thing is just waiting to explode.
But we went into shelter in place quicker; we got people apart quicker, Greene said. That could be a contributing factor ...
(Excerpt) Read more at google.com ...
I have to believe the subways had a lot to do with it. Lots of virus alive on the surfaces.
I find this unbelievable we have a population of 40 million in Ca. NY has a population of 20 million there is NO WAY there are more cars in NY!!!
LA has 7,000 people per sq miles. NYC 27,000 per sq mile.
Manhattan has a big lead on density.
“The subway” in NYC is a web of disease vectors.
My question is about the idea that Cal is right behind NY but not enough people have been tested to show it. Wouldn’t there still be an increase in very sick people if the only question was not enough tests? People might not be being tested but they would still be getting sick if the virus was anywhere near NY levels.
The counter to that is that there are many more recent Chinese immigrants thanks to the University of Chinese Immigrants (UC Irvine) and the many Chinese in tech in Silicon Valley and surrounds. The Chinatowns are, I think, irrelevant.
freeways vs subways
New York reveals a big reason why mass transit, with its illusion of safety, has one big safety factor to consider: our physical health. If COVID-19 was like the 1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus), we would have had a 50-50 chance of death, if we caught it. Imagine the havoc a transit system would play with a similar disease.
Here is probably why:
New York Health Officials Told Residents to Congregate in Huge Crowds in Defiance of Coronavirus
Summit News ^ | 3/23/20 | Paul Joseph Watson
Posted on 3/28/2020, 7:04:11 PM by Its All Over Except ...Back in February, health officials in New York told residents to congregate in huge crowds in defiance of coronavirus, a move that could have exposed thousands of people to COVID-19.
New York City Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot posted a tweet on February 9 urging citizens to flock to Chinatown in large numbers to celebrate the lunar new year while suggesting that advice to avoid crowds was misinformation.
Commissioner Oxiris Barbot ✔ @NYCHealthCommr Today our city is celebrating the #LunarNewYear parade in Chinatown, a beautiful cultural tradition with a rich history in our city. I want to remind everyone to enjoy the parade and not change any plans due to misinformation spreading about #coronavirus. https://on.nyc.gov/377LlcH ...
On the same day, Mark D. Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee, lauded how huge crowds gathering in NYCs Chinatown was a powerful show of defiance of #coronavirus scare, tweeting four images of large groups of people gathered to celebrate the occasion.
Mark D. Levine ✔ @MarkLevineNYC In powerful show of defiance of #coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC's Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual #LunarNewYear parade. Chants of "be strong Wuhan!"
Wuhan was surprisingly low(ish) population density for a modern city, shockingly low for an Asian city.
Italian (indeed, much of Europe) towns and cities are surprisingly high density, surrounded by extremely low density farmlands that are technically part of the city or metro area, so the density numbers don’t mean the same thing.
As for the accuracy of the data, deaths are presumably fairly reliable, If CA is less than NYC, IMHO that is either because the two environments are genuinely different contagion-wise or CA (and therefore the whole country) is all equally vulnerable and all we can do is wait for the hammer to come down.
Downtown SF is nothing but public transportation. Other CA cities not quite as much, but still a lot in Oakland and San Jose.
Here is what actually happened:
1. Trump stops in-bound travel from China
2. Chinese tourist switch to Italy, Spain.
3. Covid-19 grows in Europe with free travel in Euro countries.
4. Europeans bring the virus to New York.
5. With the high density of population in NY city, the virus grows fast.
Different strain. L vs S.
I think PC thinking is ruling over science. I have from the start of this, wondered what the ethnic identity of the people coming into the hospitals and found to have COVID-19. Why isn’t that information being revealed in the news? It would cause those in such ethnic communities to be more cautious.
Why? ... JFK, EWR, and LGA.
Testing is not cure for the disease. If proper prevention is practiced one avoids getting the disease in the first place. This emphasis on testing should be directed towards prevention which is basically simple steps most can emulate.
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