Posted on 03/17/2020 10:42:50 AM PDT by Perseverando
This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.
For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.
WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:
As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find value in the post and although it's a long read, I believe you will find this information valuable too.
For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have
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Which is why I keep saying you have to look at the deaths. The # of seriously ill is an extrapolation from that as is the # of asymptomatic (+ mild illness). So if the 40 deaths in Seattle are one cluster and we discount that we have 30 deaths. Extrapolate that to estimate the # of seriously ill, the # of asymptomatic and mildly ill. Watch how the number of deaths increase. If the number of deaths is not increasing in two weeks we can call it and see what happens.
All Quiet on the Western Front
You mean, standby for inflation and potentially hyper-inflation down the road? That is after the economic contraction/recession/deflation.
I think about how to get $$ to a waiter or a cook at a restaurant. Folks in these types of jobs will be hurting like right now. This is not an easy task.
Heck. Many of those people change addresses too often to find. This is a monumental task that quite frankly the govt will suck at.
Maybe require an official ID and go to Walmart and pick up a check?
I am interested to know what Freepers have to think about this.
If your Democrat neighbor yells “fire” because your house is burning down I suppose you’d stay in bed until you smell the smoke.
The number of daily US confirmed deaths are plotted in the graph in this webpage (scroll down): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The daily deaths are increasing:
March 14: 7
March 15: 11
March 16: 17
March 17: 15 (just so far today until noon Pacific Time)
Most people expect the number of dead to keep increasing and spiking without social distancing and containment. It will NOT taper off in 2 weeks. Possibly in 4-6 weeks we will see.
"the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30 days unless something changes."
"Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were identified (and they had access to testing that America has systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan did when it was shut down,..our response is tepid at best. "
[And Wuhan has how many people vs. 333 million?]
"there are only two ways, as of today, that the virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of millions of people, or social distancing."
[meaning no vaccines are to be assumed, but overwhelmed hospitals are.]
"the quantity of infected people, most who will not show symptoms, is doubling every three days."
[And how is this a fact? And if most will not show symptoms then the death rate plummets in the light of increased carriers]
"The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere."
[Somehow it gets into areas that had no social contact, or is almost everyone a carrier of a disease that shows no symptoms in most cases?]
"For every known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases."
[An assumption.]
"This is because if I become sick, I infect several people today,"
[An assumption, but "Those who are only mildly sick are likely not still infectious by about 10 days after they start to experience symptoms.' (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/09/people-shed-high-levels-of-coronavirus-study-finds-but-most-are-likely-not-infectious-after-recovery-begins.), and at least "one study suggests that people are mainly contagious before they have symptoms and in the first week of the disease.... Patients produced thousands to millions of viruses in their noses and throats, about 1,000 times as much virus as produced in SARS patients, That heavy load of viruses may help explain why the new coronavirus is so infectious. (https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms.]
[However, about 80 percent of people recover from the symptoms of COVID-19 without needing any special medical treatment. (https://www.healthline.com/health/coronavirus-incubation-period#symptoms).]
"So instead of the 1573 reported known cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday...March 18th."
[4,556 this morning in the US, and 85 deaths. For the record.]
"Yes the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1–2%). All of this true, but is immaterial."
This is as far as I am going on this.
Thank you for raising a real issue — “What is an acceptable death rate from an epidemic?” Personally, I believe this will be a “pause” mostly over in 4-6 weeks and not trigger a long lasting economic calamity. There may actually be good that comes out it, but that’s also another discussion.
At this rate we’ll have a real good idea of where we are in ten days.
Like i said, if this goes on for more than a couple weeks we are going to be in a royal mess.
Very few people can get by without 2 weeks pay. Rent / mortgages, and other bills, have to be paid.
Even if this only last 2 weeks ..it will take some people a couple month to get back on track.
I’ve been telling my wife the same thing about unknown carriers since Saturday. Even though there were only 2 reported cases in our entire state of 3 million I estimated 1 out of every 300 to 3000 people in our city might have it. Maybe a few days early, but it kept me vigilant. There’s now 10 with at least 7 more in hospitals.
Maybe he can use his math skills to explain the drop off of cases in China, Singapore, South Korea.
Another number cruncher with a bit more pedigree stated that what China did had no effect on the disease—it was already everywhere in the population when the government started its crackdown and did what viruses tend to do-—die off.
I, of course, have no clue. But I have read supposedly authoritative articles saying completely contradictory things.
“A Hillary supporter now there some truth”
Now, I have a small issue with his math, which is that the rate of doubling cannot continue once we get to larger numbers - mainly because a growing number of people who would otherwise have gotten infected, are themselves already infected. So the rate MUST slow down. However, that point is pretty far off (closer to 2-3 weeks from now), and if we get to that point our entire hospital care system is phucked - which IS his point, that we can’t let it get that way.
“It’s just the flu, bro” will become similar to what was undoubtedly said in the late 1930s by a lot of German Jews: “Nothing like that can happen here, we’re a civilized country.” Yeah, nothing like Normalcy Bias. Something just cannot happen...until it actually does.
This is NOT the flu - it is worse because it is more communicable, there is no vaccine or cure (yet, in both cases), and we don’t yet fully understand what this does to the lungs and other systems in the body of an infected person of several different ages. It seems to be worse in quite a number of people, at least at this time.
I firmly believe that we’ll have them...but maybe not in time to stop this outbreak and its effects. THAT is why we have to practice social distancing, and do so NOW.
There were precious few tests during that time, so the CDC would not (and will continue to not) report them as cases of CV.
Now that tests are rolling out nationwide, expect to see a very large surge. This will be evident by week’s end.
On March 17,2020 they had over 28,000.
Anyway, the next eight days will show who is correct. The alleged ‘fear mongers’ or the alleged ‘it’s an overreaction’ folk. Just a week and a day.
Just a week and a day from now
Excuse me?
Where does this come from?
Still scratching my head here.
Does this mean we shouldn’t question the analysis of someone who gave 800K mostly to Hillary in a situation where there is a great deal of spin & data is still volatile, capable of being crunched to suit the cruncher?
You seem a bit overwrought.
Meanwhile, we’re committing national suicide over 91 lives lost to this, while more people get killed every day in auto accidents and the death rate from the flu is more than 40 times higher.
Not sure I could get through his whole article. I was dozing off just reading his narcissistic prelude telling us about his credentials.
“I don’t see it. In fact, I expect this crisis will come to a head over generational differences. Why should 20-30 somethings just beginning their families and careers sacrifice their futures for the sake of Boomers? They already pay the tax bills to support SS/MCare, they already live in a world established to cater to Boomers. Now, they must be tied to a yoke and be made to suffer & sacrifice for the relative few yet again?”
I’m in the higher risk group and I agree with you totally. I have kids in their early 20s and 30s raising families and freaking out about the future for themselves and their kids. Why are we sacrificing their economic stability to this extend to possibly save people who have already enjoyed most of their lives? I’m willing to take the risk, wash my hands, and quarantine myself because that’s my responsibility. Is this all a move to save the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer? Maybe it’s time to let the younger folks have some say in the game instead of trying to guilt them for not staying hidden in their homes. I talked to a young single mother of three today who was terrified that her store would close and she would not be able to provide for her kids. We have lost all reason here. We grew up with the measles and no seat belts for God’s sake. When did we lose our courage?
That 86% that don’t know they have it, if they existed, would be infecting other people, 14% of whom would be symptomatic and know they were sick.
However, even your flawed argument doesn’t mean much as we don’t count the asymptomatic, didn’t know they had it, people for other diseases and the models are built around identified cases.
It’s just wishful thinking to believe there is a huge pool of didn’t-get-sick out there to somehow protect you. How would that work, anyway?
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