Which is why I keep saying you have to look at the deaths. The # of seriously ill is an extrapolation from that as is the # of asymptomatic (+ mild illness). So if the 40 deaths in Seattle are one cluster and we discount that we have 30 deaths. Extrapolate that to estimate the # of seriously ill, the # of asymptomatic and mildly ill. Watch how the number of deaths increase. If the number of deaths is not increasing in two weeks we can call it and see what happens.
The number of daily US confirmed deaths are plotted in the graph in this webpage (scroll down): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The daily deaths are increasing:
March 14: 7
March 15: 11
March 16: 17
March 17: 15 (just so far today until noon Pacific Time)
Most people expect the number of dead to keep increasing and spiking without social distancing and containment. It will NOT taper off in 2 weeks. Possibly in 4-6 weeks we will see.