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Let’s put it a different way - Italy had three COVID19 cases in February 17, 2020. Three confirmed cases.

On March 17,2020 they had over 28,000.

Anyway, the next eight days will show who is correct. The alleged ‘fear mongers’ or the alleged ‘it’s an overreaction’ folk. Just a week and a day.

Just a week and a day from now

The USA had more cases than Italy by February 17 - if I recall - dozens, as opposed to the three in Italy that you cite at that date. Now, they have 28,000 and we have somewhere over 4,200 according to the CDC. So the rates of growth in the two countries are not comparable, for whatever reason.

During the first two weeks of March, the CDC reports a range of 50-113 new cases per day, with the figure going up and down rather than steadily rising. (The daily average was 79.9 new cases.) That is good news, but I agree that the figures over the next two weeks will be critical.

The increase in testing may bump up the total number of cases, but that will not necessarily translate to a huge jump in the death toll, because many of those who test positive will not develop serious symptoms or require hospitalization. Those people are already out there, and if they were seriously sick they'd already be in the hospital and would be included in the statistics.