Posted on 03/15/2020 11:30:14 PM PDT by dangus
When plotted on a logarithmic graph, the graph of the number of cases of an epidemic usually reaches a certain angle, and then eventually begins to flatten out. That brings a HUGE sigh of relief to those in charge of managing an outbreak, and begins when the PERCENT increase in the number of cases declines. You'll very likely continue to have more and more new cases for a while, and you'll certainly have more and more total cases.
So, the $100 trillion question is: Is the curve flattening? Through March 8, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States increased an average of well over 40% per day. On March 9, however, there were scarcely more NEW coronavirus cases than on March 8... but on March 10, the number popped again, with 45% more cases, or almost double the number of new cases (289 from 148). But then, the number of new cases dropped again on March 11 (271). That was only 29% more cases than the day before.
March 12 and March 13 saw higher growth rates again (33% and 35%). But on March 14, the growth rate slowed to 30%. And yesterday, the growth rate dropped again, to just 23%.
Now, I should note that I'm using Wikipedia's collation of the 50 states' departments of health. This differs from Johns Hopkins U.'s ARCGIS page. But I've fact-checked Wikipedia's citations and compared their count to previous days, so I know that even if Wikipedia counts new cases more slowly, I'm comparing apples to apples when I report that the growth rate has gone down... although it seems highly possible that the growth rate could end up being recorded in Wikipedia as slightly higher, and perhaps high enough that we don't quite manage fewer cases than the previous date.
I should also note that data like this is noisy, meaning it takes some time to be sure whether a decrease in the growth rate is going to be a part of a continuing trend. And changes in the data may not reflect real changes. For instance, a surge in testing could cause a surge in the number of cases identified even after the true growth rate has slowed.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE BATTLE IS OVER BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION. This is not about possibly only getting 5,000 or 6,000 cases... this is about whether we get hundreds of thousands of cases or tens of millions.
Now, I've seen from several people on Facebook a comparison on the spread of Coronavirus in the U.S. to the spread in Italy. We've gotten to 3,500 cases faster than Italy! Well, we're five times the size of Italy, so that shouldn't be surprising. But what makes the case in Italy so shocking is that 7% of the people who get coronavirus die of it. So far in the U.S., that's only about 1%, and much lower still if you don't include the Seattle cluster. So there's probably something deeply wrong with the Italian system that isn't showing up in ours.
Do everything you're supposed to: Stay out of crowds... obey the authorities (for now) (unless you can receive the Eucharist on the down-low somehow :-) )... don't go out clubbing... Make sure the older people you have are well provisioned... help the homeless to some clean food... But please, don't panic.
Panfreepics ?
Yes, I suggested countries because thats easy. But in large countries like China and the US, there are sub-populations that have their own characteristics. The cities of the northwest of China are different than the cities of the southeast. As Seattle has little to do with a city like St. Louis. Anyway the overall curve could be flattening. But that is a composite of the micro populations that make up the worlds population. And no behavior or government tactic can be said to be effective or useless, because each is applied to a different population.
A worthy effort, but subject to many qualifications. Most of all, epidemic modeling is a retrospective discipline commonly undertaken with clean, reliable data that becomes available only after the epidemic is over. When the epidemic is underway, the data is usually too messy and unreliable to be usefully modeled.
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?scene=2&clicktime=1579582238&enterid=1579582238&from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0 [link in Chinese, but the white provinces are disease free.]
China now has 12 provinces that are reported to be completely disease free. That is progress.
Washington State Coronavirus Testing for known exposures and serious symptoms:
Total Tests - 10,220
Positive - 769 (7.5%)
Negative - 9451 (92.5%)
In other words, only 7.5% of a high risk population have been infected.
Also - The USA Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has been dropping for seven straight days. Current numbers:
USA Infections - 3,774
USA Deaths - 69 (42 in Washington state)
USA CFR - 1.8%
China and South Korea seem to be on the downside of the Bell curve.
This is a new era in medical testing. Previously we had traditional medical testing, for symptoms. We also had testing for “screening”. Testing asymptomatic people. Which is a very difficult and prickly subject. AFAIK there has never been a mass screening of random people. I can just about guarantee there will be a world of to date unforeseen fallout.
Big question is why aren’t the other members of the EU helping Italy with logistics and medical personnel? They are part of the Schengen area, which has open borders for all member nations.
Correct.
From the CDC:
Oct 2019-March 2020 - most conservative estimate is 22,000 USA flu deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Can we send Bernie and AOC to Italy then?
USA Infections - 3,774
USA Deaths - 69 (42 in Washington state)
USA CFR - 1.8%
the elephant in the room is this:
we know the infection rate is much higher than reported: it's the FLU, for cripe sakes, and the government says, unless you're turning blue, tough-it-out! = many unreported cases
so, if the infection rate is much higher, then the Case Fatality Rate must be much lower: I don't think the deep state is hiding corona fatalities.
The biggest challenge facing the U.S. is a serious lack of hospital beds for a potential calamity like this. Hospitals have been reducing their patient handling capacity dramatically for years. This has been driven by the major improvements in surgical techniques that make it so much easier to do more and more surgeries at outpatient facilities and/or with minimal hospital stays.
Lombardy is suffering from critical resource shortage - not enough docs, vents, tubes, ECMOs. The number of people who can be saved is determined by the number of docs and machines available, and once they hit the upper limit, the rest are on their own. So people choose to save those who have more years to live.
This was overwhelming numbers ALL AT ONCE — and the Italians didn’t implement social lockdown.
In contrast, look at China == the first fatality in China happened on January 10th. Then in the next two weeks, 6 out of the first 42 cases died. 15% mortality rate. Their average age was 68 years. So China immediately ordered lock down of all their retirement homes in Mid-Jan, because they could see that the older people would be the most hard-hit. So they locked down all the retirement homes, the seniors AND the staff, all locked down together for a month, until the virus is cleared. There was one retirement home in Wuhan that got the virus before the lock down, and the numbers are just as ugly. But pretty much all the other major institutions escaped. The only way to save the vulnerable population is to prevent them from ever facing the virus.
"The "super spreader" is a 38 year old local resident who works for Unilever. The name is unknown, only he is known as Mattia. Mattia is the 4th case in Italy. The previous 3 cases were two Chinese tourists and an Italian evacuated from Wuhan. None of them caused an outbreak. Because it is the first confirmed citizen of Lombardy in the country, Mattia is called "patient 1."
On the 16th, Mattia developed flu symptoms and went to Codogno Hospital for treatment. Since he had never been to China, doctors only treated him with antibiotics and did not conduct in-depth investigations.
But a few days later, he developed symptoms of respiratory failure and the doctors tested him again, only to find that he was infected with COVID-19. The diagnosis date was Feb 20th.
Incubation period ofr COVID-19 ranges frrom 3–14 days(usually), just imagine how many people he has infected…"
“why aren’t the other members of the EU helping Italy with logistics and medical personnel”
Because they are individual countries and are keeping their logistics and medical personnel to take care of themselves.
Unlike China or the USA, the EU is just a loose confederation, not a country. So each country is taking care of itself
Those are hospital beds per 1000 people. Italy has 3.2 hospital beds for every 1000 people, the USA has 2.8
True and the question is how to do that?
1. Lockdown retirement homes etc.
2. what about older folks at home?
3. also the problem is that even for the under 60s the death rate is 0.2% - so 1 out of every 500 die. That’s more than flu. And reports (not confirmed) are that your lungs are affected (no clear reports what that means exactly) even if you recover.
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