Posted on 03/15/2020 11:30:14 PM PDT by dangus
When plotted on a logarithmic graph, the graph of the number of cases of an epidemic usually reaches a certain angle, and then eventually begins to flatten out. That brings a HUGE sigh of relief to those in charge of managing an outbreak, and begins when the PERCENT increase in the number of cases declines. You'll very likely continue to have more and more new cases for a while, and you'll certainly have more and more total cases.
So, the $100 trillion question is: Is the curve flattening? Through March 8, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States increased an average of well over 40% per day. On March 9, however, there were scarcely more NEW coronavirus cases than on March 8... but on March 10, the number popped again, with 45% more cases, or almost double the number of new cases (289 from 148). But then, the number of new cases dropped again on March 11 (271). That was only 29% more cases than the day before.
March 12 and March 13 saw higher growth rates again (33% and 35%). But on March 14, the growth rate slowed to 30%. And yesterday, the growth rate dropped again, to just 23%.
Now, I should note that I'm using Wikipedia's collation of the 50 states' departments of health. This differs from Johns Hopkins U.'s ARCGIS page. But I've fact-checked Wikipedia's citations and compared their count to previous days, so I know that even if Wikipedia counts new cases more slowly, I'm comparing apples to apples when I report that the growth rate has gone down... although it seems highly possible that the growth rate could end up being recorded in Wikipedia as slightly higher, and perhaps high enough that we don't quite manage fewer cases than the previous date.
I should also note that data like this is noisy, meaning it takes some time to be sure whether a decrease in the growth rate is going to be a part of a continuing trend. And changes in the data may not reflect real changes. For instance, a surge in testing could cause a surge in the number of cases identified even after the true growth rate has slowed.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE BATTLE IS OVER BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION. This is not about possibly only getting 5,000 or 6,000 cases... this is about whether we get hundreds of thousands of cases or tens of millions.
Now, I've seen from several people on Facebook a comparison on the spread of Coronavirus in the U.S. to the spread in Italy. We've gotten to 3,500 cases faster than Italy! Well, we're five times the size of Italy, so that shouldn't be surprising. But what makes the case in Italy so shocking is that 7% of the people who get coronavirus die of it. So far in the U.S., that's only about 1%, and much lower still if you don't include the Seattle cluster. So there's probably something deeply wrong with the Italian system that isn't showing up in ours.
Do everything you're supposed to: Stay out of crowds... obey the authorities (for now) (unless you can receive the Eucharist on the down-low somehow :-) )... don't go out clubbing... Make sure the older people you have are well provisioned... help the homeless to some clean food... But please, don't panic.
Sometimes, a pandemic is just a panic, with a dem in the middle of it.
Unfortunately the curve can bend the other way again, as already happened when it changed from chinese disease to spreading pandemic.
Really?
They are mostly elected or appointed by Soviet Socialists like Bernie.
>> Unfortunately the curve can bend the other way again, as already happened when it changed from chinese disease to spreading pandemic. <<
ehhhhhhh.... that was jumping into new populations... kinda misses the point.
The numbers are meaningless because testing is spotty.
So far the good thing is not that many deaths and no overwhelming of the health systems.
The Italian system is overwhelmed. Medical professionals are working until they drop. Some people are not getting any care.
In a bad situation like that people that could have been saved die instead.
That’s why they are trying to get people here to flatten the curve. No spike should mean a much smaller number of deaths than what will happen if the system is overwhelmed.
I think Italy’s big problem is the single-payer medical system, which lacks the flexibility to fight the increase in cases. When you read that people are being turned away from treatment, that is a red flag that something is gone wrong. Starting from the beginning, their medical system didn’t respond to the virus in its early infections. It showed an awkward, irresponsive, clumsy system inherent in government run medical systems. It stands as a warning to America to not go the route that people like Bernie Sanders want.
There should be some way to get that info without having to do all that work. But maybe there is not, so please keep posting.
Am I saying this will happen? Am I being alarmist? No, I'm just pointing out that a flattening can go the other way in a hurry. I hope all the countermeasures will work.Here in Washington state the testing is huge. We are up to 10,000 tested with only 100 per day testing positive.
We were testing 1000 per day with 100 positive and now it is 2500 per day with 100 positive per day testing positive.
To me, that is flattening.
You have my vote for Quip of the Year. Very well done!
Can’t we fly the Italian overflow to Burlington and then out to Bernie’s Camp Compound on the Lake?
Try googling ...
The curve will go up when testing becomes readily available. Likely that many many cases will be discovered among people who had or have only mild symptoms. That will be when the nation wide lockdown and quarantines begin.
The curve is possibly flattening out. Look at the chart of daily cases, labeled actual/logarithmic/daily cases chart. Overall the trend is leveling out, even if the data from China is suspect. Outside of China, there is a spike in new cases that will hopefully level out in a few days.
Data are for the U.S.
Number of deaths for leading causes of death
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Source: Deaths: Leading Causes for 2017
And how many Corona virus deaths so far?
And a whole lot of freepers you may have noticed
Between May 6 and May 10? What disease is this tracking... and again, you are looking at a global dataset. Also, you’re looking at the wrong curve, when you say cases flattened between May 6 and May 10... you’re looking at death rate, which, having so few cases (dozens instead of thousands) is going to be inherently extremely noisy.
And yes, you have unexposed people... that’s the whole point of the curve... cases increase as the infections saturate a population. But New York and Massachusetts are much more related populations than Washington and Wuhan.
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