Posted on 03/15/2020 11:30:14 PM PDT by dangus
When plotted on a logarithmic graph, the graph of the number of cases of an epidemic usually reaches a certain angle, and then eventually begins to flatten out. That brings a HUGE sigh of relief to those in charge of managing an outbreak, and begins when the PERCENT increase in the number of cases declines. You'll very likely continue to have more and more new cases for a while, and you'll certainly have more and more total cases.
So, the $100 trillion question is: Is the curve flattening? Through March 8, the number of coronavirus cases in the United States increased an average of well over 40% per day. On March 9, however, there were scarcely more NEW coronavirus cases than on March 8... but on March 10, the number popped again, with 45% more cases, or almost double the number of new cases (289 from 148). But then, the number of new cases dropped again on March 11 (271). That was only 29% more cases than the day before.
March 12 and March 13 saw higher growth rates again (33% and 35%). But on March 14, the growth rate slowed to 30%. And yesterday, the growth rate dropped again, to just 23%.
Now, I should note that I'm using Wikipedia's collation of the 50 states' departments of health. This differs from Johns Hopkins U.'s ARCGIS page. But I've fact-checked Wikipedia's citations and compared their count to previous days, so I know that even if Wikipedia counts new cases more slowly, I'm comparing apples to apples when I report that the growth rate has gone down... although it seems highly possible that the growth rate could end up being recorded in Wikipedia as slightly higher, and perhaps high enough that we don't quite manage fewer cases than the previous date.
I should also note that data like this is noisy, meaning it takes some time to be sure whether a decrease in the growth rate is going to be a part of a continuing trend. And changes in the data may not reflect real changes. For instance, a surge in testing could cause a surge in the number of cases identified even after the true growth rate has slowed.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE BATTLE IS OVER BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION. This is not about possibly only getting 5,000 or 6,000 cases... this is about whether we get hundreds of thousands of cases or tens of millions.
Now, I've seen from several people on Facebook a comparison on the spread of Coronavirus in the U.S. to the spread in Italy. We've gotten to 3,500 cases faster than Italy! Well, we're five times the size of Italy, so that shouldn't be surprising. But what makes the case in Italy so shocking is that 7% of the people who get coronavirus die of it. So far in the U.S., that's only about 1%, and much lower still if you don't include the Seattle cluster. So there's probably something deeply wrong with the Italian system that isn't showing up in ours.
Do everything you're supposed to: Stay out of crowds... obey the authorities (for now) (unless you can receive the Eucharist on the down-low somehow :-) )... don't go out clubbing... Make sure the older people you have are well provisioned... help the homeless to some clean food... But please, don't panic.
“Cant we fly the Italian overflow to Burlington and then out to Bernies Camp Compound on the Lake?”
Yes, the fresh air at Bernie’s dacha on the lake should do wonders for the patients.
Perhaps a more important statistic is the number of critical-care beds per 100,000 people:
https://www.statista.com/chart/21105/number-of-critical-care-beds-per-100000-inhabitants/
The curve will be inaccurate for a couple of weeks. The reason is we are just beginning to test. We cannot chart the true, initial exponential spread of the diseasethat has probably already happened.
This weeks case load will appear much more sharp. This will continue for at least another week. Only then will we see a real progression. And that is when we see it flatten.
I I think you are missing the point of the posting. Posting this stuff distracts from people actually learning something. Its not productive.
> 1. Masses for less than 50 people - first priority to petitioners
do you mean parisioners?
the EU should have included multilateral pandemic treatment sharing in Shengen, but (apparently) they did not.
If true, then not so much ugly as just plain out dumb.
FLATTEN THE CURVE!
I heard an interesting radio interview with a doctor over the weekend. He said U.S. hospitals have been reducing their beds for years, and that this trend has been driven mainly by dramatic improvements in medical procedures that have helped minimize -- or even eliminate, in many cases -- hospital stays for surgery patients.
>> The nice doctor lady on tv told us that with the release of ALL THE NEW TESTS the numbers would go waaaaaaayyyyy up and not to get scared. <<
True... and yet...
At some point we must weigh the economic impact on our society against what may be considered an acceptable mortality rate. We seem to have done that with the generic flu. How far do we go in destroying the economy to combat the coronavirus? Fauci and his experts can opine what is the optimum solution from a scientific basis, but the President must look at the total impact on the society.
IMO we are overreacting and I say that as someone who is in the higher risk category of the elderly. I remember my days in Vietnam when it was said that we had to destroy a village in order to save it. Test question: If Obama was the President rather than Trump, would this be the same response recommended by the bureaucracy? Or is this a Deep State ploy to destroy the Trump economy in an election year?
Daily new cases in South Korea show a country on the downside of the Bell Curve. They see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Can you think of a single industry or aspect of life that is operationally configured to meet the maximum foreseeable demand at all times?
There are none. That's why we have traffic congestion, for heaven's sake. It makes no economic sense to design a road to meet the demands that are placed on it for two to four hours a day, five days a week.
That's also why a world class sprinter can run 100 meters in less than 10 seconds, but marathon runners can't maintain that same pace for 26+ miles.
I didn’t use the right word — I don’t know the right word. But if you tell the priest the mass is in memory of some loved one, then you get the priority to attend
May?
the eu parliament doesn't make a lot of decisions for eu members - if they did, then there would be more help for Italy from other members
The EU flag is just a little more significant than
Italy is getting help - but not enough.
E are you talking about May of 2019?
How long did it take to make Inner Mongolia disease free.
what is wrong with that?
Population 25 million. Shut down February 1 (at 23 cases). Current total 75 cases (last new case reported February 19), one death (March 4). I believe it was disease free with the last known case cleared March 11.
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