China Virus Death Toll Rises To At Least 212 As WHO Declares Global Emergency

Thomson Reuters ^ | 01/30/20 | Rosalba O'Brien

[Enlightened1]

SHANGHAI, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Health authorities in Hubei, the Chinese province at the centre of the coronavirus epidemic, said on Friday that deaths from the disease had risen to 204, a sharp increase that underscores concerns about the virus from global health officials.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said late Thursday that it was declaring the outbreak a global emergency, as cases spread to at least 18 countries.

The latest Hubei figures take the total death toll for China to at least 212. China's National Health Commission is expected to release new national figures later on Friday.

There have been a further 1,220 cases detected in Hubei by end of Jan. 30, taking the total for the province alone to close to 6,000, Hubei's health commission said.

Nearly 100 cases have emerged in other countries, spurring cuts to travel, outbreaks of anti-China sentiment in some places, and a surge in demand for protective face masks.

In Hubei some 60 million people are living under virtual lockdown as China seeks to contain the epidemic.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, praised China's response in a news conference in Geneva on Thursday evening but said the WHO was concerned about the virus spreading to countries that did not have the resources to deal with it.

"The main reason for this declaration is not because of what is happening in China but because of what is happening in other countries. Our greatest concern is the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems," he said.

The WHO move will trigger tighter containment and information-sharing guidelines to all countries, but may disappoint Beijing, which had expressed confidence it can beat the "devil" virus.

China's U.N. ambassador, Zhang Jun, said Beijing was assessing the declaration.

[Captain7seas]

“Personally I believe that this was a biological weapon that escaped from the lab (most likely accidental).”

Agree with the first part.

Disagree it was accidental escape.

IMHO, Intentional release for trial run.

Hate to be so cynical however evil is on the loose.

[DoodleBob]

Unfortunately, the data from China are likely not apples, but rocks and twigs. A real comparison may not be possible for some time.

This CDC report is an excellent source of normal US influenza data.

For the 2017-2018 flu season, the CDC estimated that 45MM people got the flu ("Symptomatic Illnesses"), 21MM sought tratement, 810k were hospitalized, and 61k died.

Thus, for that season, and assuming 330MM people in America,

-the raw mortality rate was 0.018% or 18.48 people per 100,000
-the likelihood of contracting the flu was 13.6% (45MM/330MM)
-the Case Fatality Rate was 0.14% (if you define a "case" as having Symptomatic Illness) or 0.29% (where "case"=seeking treatment) or 7.5% ("case"=hospitalization)

Going further, and I'm not saying this virus isn't SARS, and that experience isn't this experience, but these charts may shed light on the potential progression and path of the disease. These charts cover the number of SARS cases in Hong Kong...

...and the case fatality rate (CFR) over time across three countries.

What is clear, is that the CFR in HK started out very high - very Ebola-like - then comes down and hits a long-run average as the volume of cases rise.

The same "mean-reversion" happened in Canada.

Taiwan's experience is interesting: things were well until an undiagnosed hospital worker (who boarded at the hospital!) spread SARS throughout the hospital wards.

If this current situation is like HK or Canada, then things will get better. If the situation is like Taiwan, they'll get worse.... then even out.

I'm not trying to say we should ignore this thing, nor am I selling freeze-dried food and declaring this is TEOTWAWKI. But a little balance is always good.

[FBRhawk]

For those who say a few hundred deaths is no big deal, you have to look at the fatality rate which is estimated to be about 2%. This doesn’t seem like much, but it is 40 times that of the common flu. If this virus spreads to flu like proportions, the death toll will be huge.

[FBRhawk]

Last year there were 45 million Americans who caught the flu. It was more deadly than normal and 61,000 died. If the same number of people caught this new virus, the estimated death toll would be 900,000.

[Hardastarboard]

EXACTLY. The corona virus will turn out to be one of the most over hyped things in history, until the next one. I hate the media 😡 with the heat of a thousand suns.

[blueplum]

but that’s a fatality rate based on Chinese care - and the propensity of Chinese to try herbal magic before going to a hospital. And the delay in receiving care of a hospital suddenly overwhelmed, with at least one infected doctor treating patients (RIP doc, sorry you caught it). In England, I read an article their wait times are up to 5 hours. Whereas in America especially, we tend to run to the doctor or urgent care at the first sign of fever or sneeze and generally see someone immediately. I’ll trust the fatality rate under American care. Which is zero so far. I’ll worry when half the patients we have start dying.

[MuttTheHoople]

212 deaths isn’t an emergency. This is virulent but overblown.

Translation- Trump is winning the impeachment fight, the Democrats and MSM are looking more and morelike Wile E. Coyote, and November 3 for Democrats will look like a cross between Hitler's Bunker and Jonestown.

[sun7]

The Wuhan Crematorium kept burning?

(Translation from Chinese language Epoch Times)
…
Key point one: Speculation on deaths in Wuhan crematorium operating 24 hours
According to a notice flowing out of Wuhan, Wuhan Funeral Parlour and Crematorium has started a “24-hour service” and operates around the clock, attracting attention at home and abroad.

This notice also requires that after the body enters the museum, the processing procedures must be “short, flat, and fast.” The funeral home has temporarily suspended farewells, and only provides three services: “delivery of remains, cremation of remains, and ashes storage”. field.
In my opinion, this announcement, although on the surface, is intended to reduce the time people spend visiting and staying at funeral homes, and reduce the chance of contracting the virus. However, there are two important pieces of information worthy of attention: First, why do funeral homes and crematoriums need to be activated 24 hours a day? Is it necessary to work overtime for ignition because there are too many bodies?

Secondly, the funeral home not only operates around the clock, but also significantly shortens the time and process for processing each body, which is used to increase the number of bodies processed each day. The two information seem to indicate that the local epidemic in Wuhan is quite serious, and the number of people who have died of the disease has already put a heavy load on the crematorium.

In addition, it is worth noting that there is also the purpose of quickly destroying evidence and concealing data behind the overtime and ignition of remains. At the same time, were any other remains sent to crematoriums around Wuhan for cremation?”

One of the comments on the article:
“In fact, the Chinese Communist Party’s lies can be dismantled simply by thinking about it. According to the plague provided by the Chinese Communist Party, the death toll is less than two hundred people, two hundred people died, and 14 incinerators were operating around the clock. How many corpses can it handle? According to the data provided on the Internet, the processing time of a corpse is 1.5 to 3 hours, then 112 to 224 corpses can be processed in a day. It should be very clear when looking at the death data published by the CCP. If the data is true, then There is simply no need to open so many incinerators around the clock. And now it is also based on the information released by the CCP authority that it is necessary to requisition more funeral vehicles to transport corpses. It means that if the number of people killed in the plague in Wuhan can adapt to the funeral home’s trend, the number of people killed in the plague will definitely not be more than one hundred people, but hundreds or more per day. Otherwise, it is not necessary for the Wuhan government to issue such an announcement. As for the attitude of the World Health Organization, it makes people feel that they have been bought by the benefits provided by the Communist Party of China. In this regard, relevant international organizations should immediately investigate it and see how many people in this organization have joined the Communist Party under the temptation of money. The thief ship is also providing protection for the CCP’s crimes against humanity.”
https://www.epochtimes.com/b5/20/1/30/n11831089.htm

[DoodleBob]

Let's be precise: the 2% Case Fatality Rate (CFR) you quote is based on confirmed deaths divided by confirmed cases in the PRC.

The CDC estimates for the year you referenced consisted of 45MM people who had flu symptoms, 21MM who sought medical attention, and 810k that landed in the hospital.

Now, your 900,000 quantum is based on the 45MM people who had flu symptoms. To keep it apples-to-apples, you'd want to multiply the 2% CFR by the number of people who'd be hospitalized in America with cornoavirus.

If we assumed all 810k people who landed in the hospital with influenza would be a comparable number of people hospitalized with coronavirus (a purely speculative assumption but it's at least anchored to SOMETHING concrete), 2% of that lot would be 16,200 people.

That's a lot of dead people, but it's not 61,000 or 900,000.

[BobL]

“Thanks for posting. Time to prep.”

Everyone can do as they please, but my wife doesn’t have the best immune system, so if she gets it, it may well be game over. So, she’s ok hunkering down, when that time comes, and in the meantime we’re taking small (easy) steps like avoiding crowds (flying, avoiding Asian stores/restaurants, etc.). But my fear is (really was) having to stand in line for supplies with a bunch of people wearing masks, as is now the case in China and Hong Kong, or even worse, with many of the people NOT wearing masks, because they couldn’t obtain them. Just having to live miserable, when it could have been prevented.

So we’re good for at least few months prep-wise. Lots of food and other supplies. Also the means to obtain drinking water if needed, but I doubt that will be the case for a long time, as I figure utility workers will still have to show up, even if in bunny suits (although we’ll be fine in a full utility outage too).

But, feel free to consider me filled with panic, but I’ve now got about as much as I think we’ll need, and without having to worry about the condition of the other people in the stores...and we’ll consume of it in the next year anyway, so is it really panic-buying?

[BobL]

“Has anyone offered the opinion that China did this deliberately with the eye toward infecting the United States? Yes, I know that many Chinese will die, but in a country with more than a billion people too many - I hardly think they care.”

A couple of things make it unlikely, in my opinion. First, this kind of an extreme measure to cull their population...but then they are Communists. But they were doing well, at least economically, with their huge population...certainly better (much better) than India.

But why hit Wuhan first, since that’s where their Biological Warfare capability is centered, as that points right at them? Then no antidote or vaccine, or at least nothing that we know of. Much more likely a breakdown in containment there.

What I do worry about are the people ‘advising’ Trump, from the medical community - one can be sure that most of them despise him (since he isn’t upper crust in behavior), so why not tell him to hold-off on locking down this country? If a pandemic means him gets defeated in November, it probably is a reasonable trade-off to them. Part of the reason for my cynicism/suspicion is because I’ve seen just how politicized that bunch is when it comes to our obesity/diabetes epidemic, preferring to have customers in lieu of a willingness to address the problem through diet (or at least one that can work).

[BobL]

“Last year there were 45 million Americans who caught the flu.”

True, but to add to that, how many Americans had flu shots and thus DID NOT catch the flu (as was my case)?

No flu shot for this bug, for quite a while.

[MarMema]

You’re fine. The real tale will be told in Chicago by mid or late Feb.

Don’t worry. This virus prefers men and just might like Asians better.

It’s always good to not smoke of course and def we should all have several months of supplies. CW2, national disasters, etc.

Let me know if you have any questions. Don’t forget the pet food. Several million will die but most will be in Asia. In the original Lancet study there was a 68% survival rate.

[MarMema]

We’re already in the initial stage of a pandemic.
Of the first 41 infected people, 2/3 had been to the wet market.

It amazes me how many here are buying into bizarre conspiracy stuff when all the data, including the genome, and science are perfectly capable of explaining this.

I’m forced to conclude there is a lack of scientific knowledge here.

[sun7]

> “Has anyone offered the opinion that China did this deliberately with the eye toward infecting the United States?”

There are strong indications the new virus came from the P4 lab in Wuhan; whether it’s deliberate is not clear yet. I hope the day will come when China is forced to admit it when the evidence become irrefutable.

It is no secret China’s ruling class thinks China has too many people and too many mouths to feed, and they only want half of the 1.4 billion.

Instead of the United States, another possibility is to spread the virus to Hong Kong to stop people from taking to the streets. Wuhan also had a big protest last July where they emulated Hong Kongers with their own Five Demands.

Now it just occurred to me this epidemic might just give the communists the perfect excuse to renege on or reduce the purchase commitments in the trade deal.

[familyop]

Wuhan Jiayou! Wuhan Jiayou!

[familyop]

Ah, here it is. For reference (re. my last comment before this),...

Chinese Tourists in Batam Chant 'Wuhan Jiayou' as They Head Home
https://en.tempo.co/read/1301776/chinese-tourists-in-batam-chant-wuhan-jiayou-as-they-head-home

Also...

'Draconian measures': China allegedly cremating coronavirus victims in secret
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/draconian-measures-china-allegedly-cremating-coronavirus-victims-in-secret

[familyop]

Pronunciation Jia You (Go for it!!) 加油! | Learn Chinese Now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PN9ZMRJL0jM

[familyop]

Oops...characters and HTML... Here.

Pronunciation

Jia You (Go for it!!) 加油! | Learn Chinese Now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PN9ZMRJL0jM

[BobL]

Thanks - I wasn’t directing my comment to you, since I figured you wouldn’t have mentioned prepping, if you disagreed with the idea.