Posted on 01/24/2020 9:51:30 AM PST by Zhang Fei
China's communist rulers draw on a deep well of public acquiesence -- partly due to control of the internet, no free press and a brutally efficient security apparatus.
"I can't imagine there would be too many countries that would be able to do something on this scale as quickly as China has done," Kamradt-Scott said.
Even so, Kamradt-Scott warned a lockdown that extends for a week or more would produce "growing levels of discontent and frustration".
- Quarantine 'illusion' -
Kamradt-Scott said that, even though the virus would inevitably spread, the quarantine appeared designed to buy authorities time to put in place other measures.
He cited China's plans to build a 1,000-bed hospital in Wuhan in just 10 days.
Zi, from the S. Rajaratnam School, also said there was some hope the quarantines would have a level of success in containing the outbreak.
"I believe it is possible given China's expertise in this area of population control, or urban control," Zi said.
Yet the history of quarantine suggests controls will be far from watertight.
The concept emerged in Venice in the 14th century, where ships arriving at the city state from infected ports were held offshore for 40 days.
Over the centuries the US attempted quarantines to combat yellow fever, European nations tried to subdue cholera outbreaks, and several West African nations sealed off townships to hem in Ebola in the last decade.
Quarantine is "purely an illusion", said Bruno Halioua, a historian of medicine at the University of Paris IV.
"Quarantine has never worked. Each time, there have been problems."
And after seeing the situation in Wuhan first-hand, Guan Yi of Hong Kong University shared an equally pessimistic outlook.
"I've never felt scared," Guan said. "This time I'm scared."
(Excerpt) Read more at france24.com ...
Greta should be pleased. Nothing like a mass extinction plague to get rid of those pesky human earth polluters.
One would have to believe that Mariner is right. Grim stuff to be talking about... I think all I might say about it right now is don’t let the kids get all scared over it.
IIRC there were three U.S. towns that had a total quarantine prohibiting anyone from entering during the 1918 flu pandemic. No one caught the flu. Only practical on a small scale.
The WHO recently reports a fatality rate of 4% from the Wuhan virus (airborne pneumonia).
Act accordingly :a N 95 face mask, or better, latex gloves,
extra domestic supplies, disinfectant, hand soap, food supplies, etc.,
so that you don't have to go out shopping if it rages in your neighborhood.
Take a recent lesson from the Chinese quarantine.
Remember to be : pro active, rather than reactive !
Remember : OODA loop
[It would have little economic impact in China if 22 million Chinese died from this disease. ]
Wuhan is one of China’s most modern cities. Just take a look at that skyline. Everything is brand spanking new. People in the cities are young, energetic and highly-educated, relative to those still in the sticks. The loss of Wuhan would be a major hit to economic output. A 5% hit wouldn’t surprise me. Imagine a GDP that swung from 6% growth to 1%. That’s $600b, or close to the entire Pentagon budget. It’s also why Wall Street is reacting somewhat, with perhaps more on tap.
When the Spanish flu was killing people, we had no antibiotics for any secondary infections involving bacteria, we had very little access to IV technology for hydration (that took off in the 1950s), and aspirin was considered new, cutting edge treatment for fever.
The high death rate for Spanish Flu says a lot about the medical situation in 1918. For equivalent death rates today, you’d need a disease significantly worse.
I admit that poor areas in China may be living today like it was still 1918. That’s not good for them. But the US is unlikely to see much death from this. Sure, anything is possible. But the media does hype this stuff every year. I don’t panic when the boy cries wolf.
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I disagree; people got so sick, so quickly, from the 1918 flu pandemic that it was not unusual for people to die within 2 days of symptoms. Many people died of cytokine storm, which is basically the immune system going on overdrive. No vax or antibiotics would do anything for that, even if avaialable. Also the sheer numbers of sick people would even now completely overwhelm health facilities, as many patients would get so sick they need much higher level of nursing care, even in the 2009 H1N1 flu, many patients needed ECMO machines and there are very few, and require very skilled nursing. (Extra Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation).
https://uihc.org/health-topics/family-guide-ecmo
Even the H1N1 of 2009 caused death by organ failure in heart, liver, lungs, and kidneys. Bad flus can do VERY bad things not all of which are treatable with antibiotics or antivirals. Or in time.
4% fatality, ugh....
I just saw a Twitter report saying two cases are now confirmed in France.
https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1220792291239002115
Cytokine storm.
Lots of healthy young people in 1918 went to bed healthy and symptom free but never woke up.
I agree ! That's why I encourage pro-active involvement, rather than re-active emotion.
Notice that fear never enters into the OODA LOOP below
The OODA Loop : Observe, Orient , Decide , Act
Observe : communicate, be aware, absorb new information, stay current
Orient.. : evaluate your situation, consider possible options and repercussions
Decide.. : make an honest evaluation with no emotional attachment
Act ......: after an honest evaluation, make the decision to act, and then do it !
The in-depth instructions and anylisis for the OODA Loop can be found at :
http://www.artofmanliness.com/articles/ooda-loop/
Think I'd rather take my chances with the virus than walk into a Chinese-built hospital that was built in 10 days.
Actually, the lockdown is to save those inside the lockdown, who will be cured first. Those on the outside are phuk’t!
Now’s a good time for POTUS to make a deal with the Chinese PTB to open up the internet to all people. With better communications this might have been handled before it got out of control
Remember for all case reports under these circumstances it’s “worst first”. There are no population surveys to find mild or asymptomatic infections and there won’t be for a while.
4% is probably too high.
[You might be interested in this: Expert says coronavirus is spread through eyes as killer disease ‘shuts down China’
My Wife and I discussed this from day one. There is disposable eye protection on Amazon.
For protection one needs N99 masks. The masks people are wearing is to prevent them from spreading the virus. It may seem cynical at first, however cold calculations were made to reduce the spread. ]
“’I can’t imagine there would be too many countries that would be able to do something on this scale as quickly as China has done,’ Kamradt-Scott said.”
Does this person even know for sure when this started? China isn’t too forthcoming with information, and this could’ve been in the works long before they let the cat out of the bag.
Health officials investigate possible case of coronavirus in North Carolina
Touch a doorknob, don’t wash your hands right after.
Or, pick up a can of tomatoes at the local grocery.
Or, gas up. Or use the ATM etc.
Then rub your eyes, or light a smoke, or eat a burger,.
Easy.
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