'This time I'm scared': experts fear too late for China virus lockdown

AFP ^ | Issued on: 24/01/2020 - 11:40 Modified: 24/01/2020 - 11:39 | Agence France-Presse

[Zhang Fei]

China's communist rulers draw on a deep well of public acquiesence -- partly due to control of the internet, no free press and a brutally efficient security apparatus.

"I can't imagine there would be too many countries that would be able to do something on this scale as quickly as China has done," Kamradt-Scott said.

Even so, Kamradt-Scott warned a lockdown that extends for a week or more would produce "growing levels of discontent and frustration".

- Quarantine 'illusion' -

Kamradt-Scott said that, even though the virus would inevitably spread, the quarantine appeared designed to buy authorities time to put in place other measures.

He cited China's plans to build a 1,000-bed hospital in Wuhan in just 10 days.

Zi, from the S. Rajaratnam School, also said there was some hope the quarantines would have a level of success in containing the outbreak.

"I believe it is possible given China's expertise in this area of population control, or urban control," Zi said.

Yet the history of quarantine suggests controls will be far from watertight.

The concept emerged in Venice in the 14th century, where ships arriving at the city state from infected ports were held offshore for 40 days.

Over the centuries the US attempted quarantines to combat yellow fever, European nations tried to subdue cholera outbreaks, and several West African nations sealed off townships to hem in Ebola in the last decade.

Quarantine is "purely an illusion", said Bruno Halioua, a historian of medicine at the University of Paris IV.

"Quarantine has never worked. Each time, there have been problems."

And after seeing the situation in Wuhan first-hand, Guan Yi of Hong Kong University shared an equally pessimistic outlook.

"I've never felt scared," Guan said. "This time I'm scared."

[goldstategop]

Quarantines are seldom effective in the long term. This buys the Chinese government some time.

Whether other measures they take will bring it under control remains to be seen.

[ifinnegan]

Hysteria.

This does, though, serve the ChiComs in being able to institute martial law as an exercise which will come in very handy if there is ever a wide scale movement against them.

[Red Badger]

Quarantines do work.

For the people on the outside.

For those inside, not so much..................

[struggle]

I’m not too worried, but I am a school teacher.

[ClearCase_guy]

Perhaps I’m wrong, but this stuff gets hyped every year. Maybe this is the year it’s a real thing and we all die. But I suspect this is nothing at all.

The media really wants everyone to be scared all the time. That way strong government can save us.

[bkopto]

The leftist Promethians ought to be doing handsprings over a global pandemic that threatens billions of people. After all, they worship death and want to reduce the world’s population to 500 million (as long as its not them).

[mewzilla]

It's not just about the mortality rate though. For example, per the CDC...

Burden of Influenza

And we have a vaccine for the flu.

[goldstategop]

Why isn’t Greta Thuneberg celebrating? This may postpone the end of the world for another decade.

[Lemon Curry]

In 1918, upwards of 50 million people died from the flu.

While ulterior politic motives are possible and often likely, we have within living memory the reality of a deadly pandemic. We need to leave the conspiracy theories aside when these outbreaks occur. This stuff is major league.

[bkopto]

Why isn’t Greta Thuneberg celebrating?

Her father has yet to write it into her talking points....

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[blam]

Radio:

"Stock market down due to report of second confirmed case of coronavirus in Chicago"

[Zhang Fei]

[This does, though, serve the ChiComs in being able to institute martial law as an exercise which will come in very handy if there is ever a wide scale movement against them.]

---

The possibility of mutinies resulting in all-out revolution is always a risk when troops are deployed against civilians. Both of these incidents occurred in Wuhan:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuchang_Uprising

[TangledUpInBlue]

God’s way of culling the filthy herd

[ClearCase_guy]

When the Spanish flu was killing people, we had no antibiotics for any secondary infections involving bacteria, we had very little access to IV technology for hydration (that took off in the 1950s), and aspirin was considered new, cutting edge treatment for fever.

The high death rate for Spanish Flu says a lot about the medical situation in 1918. For equivalent death rates today, you’d need a disease significantly worse.

I admit that poor areas in China may be living today like it was still 1918. That’s not good for them. But the US is unlikely to see much death from this. Sure, anything is possible. But the media does hype this stuff every year. I don’t panic when the boy cries wolf.

[PIF]

2019-ncov vaccine is 2 years out according to reports

[Zhang Fei]

[Perhaps I’m wrong, but this stuff gets hyped every year. Maybe this is the year it’s a real thing and we all die. But I suspect this is nothing at all.

The media really wants everyone to be scared all the time. That way strong government can save us.]

---

China isn’t quarantining a region of 40m people that’s maybe the size of Maryland (~12,000 sq miles) for the heck of it. That “city” of Wuhan is really an agglomeration of 11m people in an area (~3,000 sq miles) 1/3 bigger than Delaware.

[Karma_Sherab]

The media really wants everyone to be scared all the time.

Impeachment isn't working, so they have to change the focus

[Bob434]

[[While ulterior politic motives are possible and often likely, we have within living memory the reality of a deadly pandemic.]]

Go to old grave years and you will notice that a lot of children died during those years due to epidemics- one of which was the spanish flu-

[[This stuff is major league.]]

It certainly does have the potential to be- however, scientists have stated they could begin experimental vaccine within three months- but, by that time- many folks could potentially be suffering from the virus, and spreading it- and just because they will be experimenting with it does not mean it will be widely available-