Bloomberg bets 2020 campaign on unprecedented strategy

The Hill ^ | 11/27/19 03:32 PM EST | JULIA MANCHESTER

[robowombat]

Bloomberg bets 2020 campaign on unprecedented strategy BY JULIA MANCHESTER - 11/27/19 03:32 PM EST

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s unconventional campaign strategy is panning out to be one of riskiest experiments in primary politics, testing the limits of personal wealth and name recognition.

Bloomberg, who officially threw his hat in the Democratic primary ring last week, will not accept donations nor fund his own campaign, automatically disqualifying himself from the primary debates.

The billionaire politician also says he plans to focus on the Super Tuesday states, and won’t compete in the crucial early contest states of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Operatives acknowledge Bloomberg’s game plan is risky, but are not dismissing his chances given that he is backed by his enormous personal wealth.

Bloomberg is worth roughly over $50 billion and has long championed liberal causes like combatting climate change. But he is also a former Republican, an affiliation that is expected to draw scrutiny during the primary.

The former mayor is hoping his history in politics and advocacy on issues such as gun control could be key in building a coalition of moderate and liberal voters.

That's a feat none of the existing candidates in the race have been able to pull off so far in a race that has featured four leading contenders: former Vice President Joe Biden and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg from the party's centrist wing, and Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) from the progressive camp.

Whether Bloomberg can emerge as an alternative without spending time in early states or facing off on the debate stage remains in doubt.

“I think skipping the early states and skipping the debates could definitely be a problem,” veteran Democratic operative David Brock told The Hill.

“Both of those are opportunities to speak more directly to voters.”

Other strategists, however, argue that Bloomberg’s absence from Iowa and New Hampshire may not be critical because of the states’ lack of voter diversity.

“I have to say it'll probably piss people [off] in Iowa, New Hampshire, who are used to almost two years of slavish devotion,” a Democratic strategist told The Hill. “But is it a bad thing to move beyond those small, white, rural, under-representative early states?”

Another former New York City Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, similarly skipped the early states for the most part to focus on Florida and the Super Tuesday states. The strategy ended badly, and he was forced to withdraw after finishing third in the Sunshine State and never even making it to Super Tuesday.

Despite being a billionaire and former mayor of New York, Bloomberg will similarly have to work to put his name out in a number of the Super Tuesday states where he is less known, such as those in the South.

But unlike Giuliani, Bloomberg has deployed a $31 million ad buy across 98 local media markets, as well as on some national cable outlets -- an unprecedented level of spending for a candidate who has just joined the race.

Whether that can be enough remains to be seen. Warren attacked Bloomberg for using "bags and bags of money" to buy his way into the race, while Sanders declared himself "disgusted" by the spending.

“His name ID his significantly less than Biden or Warren or Sanders in any of those states in the middle [of the country] of the South,” Michael Gordon, a Democratic strategist and principal at Group Gordon, said. “His money can help there but he doesn’t have the longstanding credibility."

In order to be competitive in the South, Bloomberg will need to perform well among African-Americans, a potential hurdle given the scrutiny on his record as New York City mayor.

The billionaire this month apologized for his “stop and frisk” policing strategy during his tenure as mayor, saying he did not understand “the full impact that stops were having on the black and Latino communities.”

There are also few signs that Bloomberg has built-in support from other critical Democratic constituencies such as Latinos. Sanders, for example, has avidly courted Latino voters since his 2016 campaign.

“The political reality is, I don't think he will do exceptionally well with Latino voters because I don't think they know who the heck he is," Moe Vela, a Democratic strategist and former adviser in the Clinton and Obama White Houses, told The Hill.

“I’ve never seen Michael Bloomberg do anything to connect with the Latino community,” he continued. “So all of the sudden you’re going to come into Texas and California and Super Tuesday states and you’re going to pump in a bunch of money.”

Bloomberg’s absence on the debate stage could also prove to be a hurdle in his efforts to familiarize voters with his name.

A number of candidates like Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and businessman Andrew Yang are scrambling to ensure they get a spot on next month’s debate stage under toughened criteria.

But other strategists believe Bloomberg can afford not to take part in debates given that he is better known than some of the lower-polling candidates in the race.

“So many of them are fighting for oxygen that they are looking for a clip that can go viral, they're looking for a mention or maybe even a seat around the [morning news shows] table,” another Democratic strategist said. “He doesn’t have to do that. Michael Bloomberg doesn’t fight for oxygen.”

Others say Bloomberg could even benefit from being absent from the primary debates, and avoiding the likely on-stage attacks from candidates such as Warren and Sanders.

“Why would you want to stay in a place where your opponents could beat the devil out of you?” veteran New York strategist Hank Sheinkopf, who has worked with Bloomberg, told The Hill.

Despite the doubts about Bloomberg's strategy, few are willing to dismiss his chances in an unusually fluid race that has seen candidates such as Buttigieg vault from obscurity to top contender in the matter of months.

“Six months ago, there was a guy with a name no one could pronounce from a state with a low population, from a city that very few people go to to visit,” Sheinkopf said, referring to Buttigieg. “He is now one of the top four competitors in public polling.”

“This is 2019,” he said. “Anything can happen.”

[jjotto]

Assigning prime slots to one candidate to the exclusion of any others would not be acceptable to the FCC, and would be foolish for the broadcaster who is locked into one rate for everyone. The FEC likely would take action as well.

I don’t believe he’s really running. He’s just getting the best ad rates and treatment for his issues advertising.

[RightGeek]

The "nor fund" is a typo. Article now says Bloomberg, who officially threw his hat in the Democratic primary ring last week, will not accept donations but will fund his own campaign, automatically disqualifying himself from the primary debates.

[OddLane]

This is a good point. I think this was one of the reasons the establishment was so irate over Trump’s victory. It exposed the utter absurdity of paying hundreds of millions of dollars in consultancy fees to cretins like Rick Wilson.

[CincyRichieRich]

In my opinion all of these candidates our place holders paid for by Soros. Michelle Obama, or Michelle, or Michael... is the real can do that that will show up around January and claim that she / he / it had no choice but to save the party and save the country.

[Kickass Conservative]

Two words, elevator shoes...

[StAnDeliver]

"Assigning prime slots to one candidate to the exclusion of any others would not be acceptable to the FCC, and would be foolish for the broadcaster who is locked into one rate for everyone. The FEC likely would take action as well."

Total non-starter.

Show me where the FCC has twitched a whisker to force a market to level the playing field this century on political ads.

Show me where the FEC -- headed by the GOP most of this century -- has interjected themselves in a modern monopoly political ad suit.

You think the FEC gives a shit if Doomberg freezes out Biden in DMA15 Minneapolis? The FEC is rightfully more invested in investigating Doomberg's refusal to permit BloombergNews to investigate other Democrats!

That said, Karamela would be free to sue Doomberg on a cheezy suit (just like that cheezy suit she bought and exposed her kneepad brand of stupid right. out. of. the. gate.) that would be settled in June, even if expedited through the DC Circuit.

By Monday, Doomberg will have locked down prime ad space in 8 of 13 SuperTuesday states by simply monopolizing 8 DMAs with the smallest chunk of his $37M buy; and only the first 2 DMAs could be described with the word 'millions' in total dollars to accomplish saturation:

• MN: DMA15 Minneapolis
• CO: DMA17 Denver
• TN: DMA29 Nashville
• UT: DMA35 Salt Lake City
• OK: DMA41 Oklahoma City
• AL: DMA45 Birmingham
• AR: DMA57 Little Rock
• VT: DMA97 Burlington

[Candor7]

As North Korea’s Kim might say:

“Too rittle, too rate!”

[jjotto]

As a point of comparison, 2016 candidates spent over $60 million in ads on the Iowa caucuses alone, excluding the general election.

Nobody is going to run out of ad time.

[Brown Deer]

Remember back in 2016, when all the liberals were complaining about the "old" age of Donald Trump? He was only a few months older than Reagan, on the day of his inauguration.

It's Trump's Birthday. If He Wins, He'd Be The Oldest President Ever To Take Office

But now those same people on the left are ignoring the fact, that there are three grumpy old men, running against the much younger Donald J. Trump, who has more than proven that he his fit for the job with his numerous accomplishments, despite the #fakenews media.

Sanders, Bloomberg and Biden will each be nearly 80 years old on inauguration day 2021 (if they are still alive). Indeed, that is almost ten years older than Ronald Reagan was, when he was first elected!

[unread]

“I think skipping the early states and skipping the debates could definitely be a problem,” veteran Democratic operative David Brock told The Hill. “Both of those are opportunities to speak more directly to voters.”

Yeah, I don't think talking to the voters has anything to do with his plans.. He seems to think just showing up with all his money will be enough to secure the nomination .. Knowing how the dimocraps work, maybe he's right..

[John S Mosby]

David Brock comments on “the voters”!! WHAT voters— the superdelegates who can be and have been BOUGHT for years, number one.

Bloomberg assuredly doesn’t give a shite about the “voters”. He thinks they shouldn’t have plastic straws cause he says so, and also no one should have 32 oz soft drink if they want one!

Got news bloomie (who is also a little shrimp of a person)- NO ONE wants you. Not the military as a CIC (what a joke), not the business world (outside of the news media tech weenie neonazi socialists and world government, and especially not working people in the US. Crash burn— you have NOTHING to say to us, and we want nothing to do with you or your stupid “network” of gob swallowing drones who work there. You fraud. You turned all of the beautiful work Giuliani did to save New York, right up to 9-11, and then took that and turned it into absolute shite.

Manipulative lying doodie squat. Think Moochelle— but white, small, and a complete “nudge”, annoying whining oddball, with an odd persona as well.

[Squantos]

Is Bloomberg the same size as Ross Perot or shorter ?

[Does so]

+2

[monkeyshine]

He can have my Big Gulp when he pries it from my cold drinking hand...

[monkeyshine]

Plan B for many of them is a brokered convention. I’ll have to do some reading about the new convention/delegate distribution rules. I think they have been changed since 2016 though I would guess not by much. The DNC rules are designed to give the appearance of democratic principles but essentially give all the power to decide the nomination in the backroom with the “super delegate” vote.

The GOP is a little different, it has super delegates too but not nearly as many, and the GOP primaries are winner take all for the states. In the DNC, they allocate popular vote proportionally by state, so it is possible that someone who comes in 2nd or 3rd or even 4th in every state - who never got a majority in any state - could become the nominee if they swing the super delegate votes. Harder to do that in the GOP.

[nicollo]

I’m guessing that Hillary will be the dark horse. She resents the Obamas enough to squash any Moochelle attempt, which the Mooche doesn’t want anyway. Hillary won’t be denied twice by the Obamas.

If Obama wants to squash Hillary, we’ll know as soon as the MSM gets on the Epstein story, as they have w/ that Brit, Andrew. They Hillary has skated from this story means the MSM/ Dem establishment is still making space for her.

We’ll see. Will be most amusing to watch unfold.

[Karma_Sherab]

If he promises to spend every penny he owns I promise to vote for him.
That wouldn't work. Once in, he'd just graft his way back to billions

[E. Pluribus Unum]

I wouldn’t vote for him anyway. If Democrats can make promises they never intend to keep, so can I.

[monkeyshine]

I don’t think she will jump in, and I don’t think the party would nominate her at the last minute. They Clintons are through... imo.

[Crucial]

Bloomberg is so rich he could spend Trumps net worth and not miss it. I think he’s serious. Whether he can get any traction nationwide is a real question.