Posted on 11/16/2019 1:56:51 PM PST by goldstategop
f you thought there weren’t any major elections until the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 3, guess again. On Saturday, Louisiana will choose between incumbent Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards and Republican businessman Eddie Rispone for governor. And the race down in the Bayou looks increasingly close, so it’s an open question whether Edwards can once again overcome Louisiana’s deep red hue to win reelection. Here’s where things stand heading into Election Day.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Not necessarily so.
Louisiana politics are a bizarro world and few election results can be viewed as part of a national trend.
New Orleans always votes Dem. Always has. The rest of the state can vote for the Republican, but N.O. massive voting numbers cancel everything north of Baton Rouge. The only way a Republican can win is if the N.O. voters stay home.
I'm convinced half of the N.O. voters thought they were voting for Edwin Edwards.
That’s not the point. You can’t win an election (in swing states) with just Republican votes. You need independents. And you need new voters.
In 2016, Trump won a surprising number of independent voters in the suburbs of the swing states. Those same voters right now are very lukewarm. Now maybe most of those voters will ultimately come back. But right now, they are not solid. They are going to need convincing. Trump also won 53% of white women in these states. He doesn’t have that right now. He’s got to find a way to get those women back.
If you think Trump’s re-election is in the bag, then you are making the same mistake Hillary made in 2016. Democrats are turning out in very heavy numbers in their strongholds. This is not going to be an easy election.
and basing all these projections on off year Gov races ...talking about coat tails... is a little sky is falling. This Edwards actually ran ads bragging about his relation with Trump. Romney and McCain both ignored their bases trying for the “middle”...heh...we see how that worked out.
also...in Kentucky and Louisiana, down ballot, the dems have been literally wiped out...
No we can’t be relying on the cheat crap!! Our base has lost the ability to turnout in droves! Perhaps, just perhaps, our base is exhausted with the fight of constantly losing battles that should have been easily won! I TOTALLY blame the RNC...TOTALLY!!! The evil rats have done a good job of demoralizing conservatives....they are winning..I don’t see us winning JACK!! President Trump can’t do it alone!! I hate to say this but THE SOCIALIST BASTA DS are more motivated to vote!! 2020 might be a disappointment!
IMHO, what this shows is that:
1) Trump still has a lot of power-—he added 5-6 points to Rispone, who was losing big before Trump came in.
2) JBE was popular +6 approval, pro-gun, pro-life DemoKKKrat, perhaps the last in the nation. That’s hard to beat.
3) Candidates matter. I keep saying this and saying this. It mattered in KY, it will matter in AZ and CO’s senate races, and it will matter in the House. You can’t beat sumptin with nuttin.
Folks...this election in Louisiana will be forgotten in two, just like all other state elections days. Trump gave Louisiana his best shot.....no one could ask for more. As I have said so many times in my posts on this very site, The Democrat Party is dying....they have no candidate fit to be POTUS in their entire Party...period. They are desperate!!! I can assure just I told you that Biden, Sanders and warren are done...toast!!!
And...you can add Bloomberg & Patrick to the done list, also. All the Democrats have is hate for POTUS, Donald J. Trump...nothing else, no working agenda to present and move forward for the American people...nothing, they have not passed one bill through congress, to law since they took over the House a year ago.
As for Trump being tainted...forget it. Trump has gone life with many ups and down, good and bad. But...he never stops believing in himself his family, his country. you can count on that...100%. I believe God has sent us this man Trump...just like he sent us Washington, Lincoln & Reagan...and no one with a few sour grapes yelps is going to change my mind...ever!!! Go Trumpie....thank you sir, for being here when we America need you most!!!
Tomorrow is a new day...let us continue the Trump journey foward!!! Thanks, upstairs number one boss, for sending us this gift of Trump!!
for voter fraud to work, Republicans would have to be in on it too. Louisiana SOS (R) Kyle Ardoin isn’t going to investigate any allegations of voter fraud.
No, what I am saying is that had Trump supporters listened to him and went out to vote in the numbers they did back in 2016, Kentucky and Louisiana would have elected Republican governors and there’d be no impeachment inquiry as Republicans would still have control of the House.
“the R=Secretary of State won last night by almost 300,000 votes”
Eddie Rispone should also have won by close to the same.
Leni
“It’s damn bad news. The rats will be emboldened now. I put impeachment at 90% now. “
I put the House voting to impeach at 100% now.
” I got flamed here saying it wad a very dumb move for Trump to be tweeting about her during her show Friday. We really needed this win.”
I agree. PDJT should have remained quiet.
Our base has lost the ability to turnout in droves!
**************
Some of the base as you call them voted for Edwards. The
Secretary of State position had the GOP candidate winning
with 59% of the vote. Rispone got 49% in the Governors race.
https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical
Unofficial Turnout: 50.7%
What the GOP needed to do is have an agumented turnout of about 53%, then it would be the other way around on the gubernatorial vote.
The GOP did not turn out and/or the cheat was in at urban polls. Take your pick.
People in Kentucky and Louisiana have a very different point of view about Democrats. While Republicans have seized and expanded their political power in both states, people consider Democrats as friends, neighbors, fellow congregants and if they like them or if they don’t know the Republicans, they will vote for the Dem. No one knew Rispone.
This election has nothing to do with impeachment.
This election has nothing to do with Trump
This election was about tribal politics in S. Louisiana.
We know how Orleans Parish votes and when I saw the Election Day weather forecast for New Orleans, I knew Edwards would win.
Interesting...Rispone lost by 40k+ votes.
The SOS election had 40K+ less votes than the GOV. race.
seems strange...
yea..just shut up and let them say what they want like a good rhino wimp. That woman implied that she was physically threatened....absurd. Btw..impeachment has a whole hew dynamic to it that nobody thought of...Since its not a criminal hearing, Trump can literally answer testimony in real time to his 66 million followers...with out even being there!!..welcome to 2019.
“ We need voter ID”
Louisiana has Voter ID
Yes.
I see too many Chicken Littles/Henny Pennys crying the sky is falling.
There was good turnout both here & KY. Down ballot the Republicans won big. The candidates were at a disadvantage, especially in LA against a popular incumbent. President Trump’s visits had the effect of bringing folks out and that impacted down ticket. He can only do so much. There is no one better at getting people out to vote.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.