Oh, So That's How Many Electoral Votes Trump Will Clinch in 2020

Townhall.com ^ | October 19, 2019 | Matt Vespa

[Kaslin]

It’s early. Way too early to discuss polling in any serious measure, especially in the absence of a Democratic nominee, but the liberal media loves to trot out their trash polls about the president’s approval ratings and support for impeachment in what could be argued as a prolonged campaign to demoralize the GOP base. It won’t. If anything, how the liberal media has behaved over the past three years has only become one massive in-kind contribution to Trump’s re-elect as everyone sees through their bias, lies, and gross incompetence. How many times were we told about Russian collusion? It was a myth. How many times have we heard the ‘walls are closing in’ on this presidency? They’re not. There’s a reason why the media is distrusted. There’s a reason why ‘CNN sucks’ remains a popular chant. The inability for the media to cover this White House accurately has reached epic proportions and frankly, it’s to the point where it’s no longer digesting information. We're tuning into these networks to get a good laugh and gauge how Trump Derangement Syndrome has engulfed the Left. The reality is that there is good news emanating from this administration.

Job creation is solid with over three million jobs created. Paychecks are larger. Consumer and small business confidence have reached their highest marks in years. The economy is booming. And if the recent Democratic debate showed you anything, it’s that the economic growth we’re seeing would be torpedoed. The Democrats want to give health care to illegals, promote open borders, bash cops, increase taxes, force everyone on government health care, coupled with massive tax increases, confiscate guns, and permit abortion up until the moment of birth on the taxpayer dime. Yeah, it’s a debate between freedom and slavery—and the Left argues the latter as some great alternative to Trump. Oh, and Medicare for All, which is what Democrats now endorse, would cannibalize all private health insurance plans. That’s around 150 million plans. So, for all the conniption fits about the GOP taking away people’s health care, well—the Democrats are the ones actually proposing that this year and thinking it’s a popular and economically sound policy. So, would it shock you, given the left-wing Democratic agenda that will thrust economic destitution upon many, that we have a 2020 projection where Trump wins re-election handily (via The Hill):

President Trump appears likely to win reelection next year, according to three different economic models Moody’s Analytics uses to measure presidential contests.

Moody’s modeling, which has only missed on one presidential election since 1980, found that Trump, who won by a 304-227 margin in the Electoral College in 2016, could easily surpass those results in 2020.

I guess we should serve this piping hot cup of shut the hell up concerning the 2020 projection by pollster Mark Zandi. Spoiler: it’s very bad for Democrats.

The three different models showed Trump winning either 289, 332 or 351 votes in the Electoral College over his eventual opponent. The projections are based on how consumers feel about their financial situations, stock market gains achieved under Trump and the prospects for unemployment.

“If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump’s election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren’t enthusiastic and don’t get out to vote,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and co-author of the paper, told CNBC. “It’s about turnout.”

Of the three models, Trump performs best under the “pocketbook” measure, which gauges how people feel about their finances.

So, yeah—this is a piping hot cup of shut the hell up that should be served to the Left. your agenda sucks. The voters know it. you have no slid frontrunner who can beat Trump right now. Elizabeth Warren cannot answer a simple question about the impact her forced Medicare plan will have on taxes and the middle class. That’s because everyone knows taxes will go up and the middle class will be torched by this policy. Bernie Sanders just had a heart attack. And Joe Biden is dealing with the fallout from his son’s alleged unethical business deal in Ukraine, along with forgetting where he is half the time and babbling incoherent nonsense on the debate stage. With a solid economy, a far-left agenda, and a weak Democratic candidate who will be shredded by the Trump campaign’s excellent attack machine—I can see a landslide coming.

[Spacetrucker]

Pay attention to the data analytics the Trump campaign uses - they know what they’re doing.

[Kaslin]

Pfft

[Kaslin]

I repeat myself. Pffffffffffffft

[Kaslin]

And I am an optimist.

[LastDayz]

But.... but.... but.... I thought there were 57.

[IrishBrigade]

‘Think of those really big states (California, New York, etc.) who have passed laws that require all their electoral votes to go to the candidate that wins the popular vote.’

I’m sure you’re aware that the national popular vote mandate is not effected until states totaling 270 EV’s pass it; as that has not happened, no states are currently mandated to vote for the national winner...

[SamAdams76]

Think of those really big states (California, New York, etc.) who have passed laws that require all their electoral votes to go to the candidate that wins the popular vote.

This is absolutely 100% NOT TRUE.

The electoral votes of NY and CA will still be awarded by the state vote - not the national vote.

[LS]

I repeat myself: for those who haven’t been paying attention, @SHEPMJS has tracked black approval of Trump for almost THREE YEARS and it equates to exactly these numbers. He has followed on four major polls, and always gets 16%-26% approval.

Now, while “approval” doesn’t = votes, it does, when combined with “stay at home,” = these kinds of numbers.

So, pffft.

[LS]

My prediction-—pay attention-—is 320-340 ELECTORAL VOTES.

And no, Trump won’t win all 50 states if he walks on water.

[Kaslin]

Well you pessimist we shall see. Perhaps you want him defeated. I am an optimist and optimists always win! P

[thecodont]

Thanks, will note.

[GOPJ]

The FBI needs to secure the vote in the black community because that's the most likely place for Russians and Chinese to swing the vote with fraud.

Why there??

Russians and Chinese understand the racial situation in the US and they know law enforcement is afraid to look too closely at odd results in minority communities for fear of being call ‘racists’...

That's where the cheating will happen.

The FBI will secure the sanctity of the vote by stopping fraud from the places it's most likely to happen.

[T. Rustin Noone]

I agree

Then add in the 93 EV’s from CA, NY and CO and DJT is above 400..)

[CatOwner]

There are close to 170 EVs Trump won’t win against just about any DEM candidate, so 370 EVs tops.

[Interesting Times]

Assuming Trump doesn't lose States he won, his likely pick ups and margin by which he lost - and electoral votes are

New Hampshire, 0.37% – 4
Minnesota, 1.52% – 10
Nevada, 2.42% – 6
Maine, 2.96% – 2
Colorado, 4.91% – 9

325 at best.

That's a bit off.

Trump got 304 votes last time. Adding the 31 from your list would bring him to 335. He also lost Virginia by 5.36%, not much more than Colorado. That would push his total to 348; a very solid margin.

[Interesting Times]

Adding the two EVs taken from Trump by faithless electors would bump his total to a round 350. That’s my prediction.

[Kaslin]

While you are a pessimist, I am a optimist and say he will get 685,707 popular votes.

[Kaslin]

As popular as President Trump is, You expect him to only get 350 votes?

They had better go out and vote or else.

[Kaslin]

You are forgetting the popular votes.

In 1984 President Reagan won 7 electoral votes and 685,700 popular votes. Walter Mondale won 0 popular votes and 536,479 popular votes.

Source

[DoodleBob]

And I am an optimist.

As am I generally, but on electoral vote forecasts, optimism shouldn't be blinded by reality and logistics.

All that matters is 270. Trump has LOTS of wind at his back, and he has built an awesome coalition of people of all shapes, sizes, colors, and proclivities that is the envy of the DNC. In this regard I am feeling positive that he will win.

But Trump also has lots of enemies and fraud aligned against him...more than Reagan, more than Nixon. While I am heartened to hear Trump hiring campaign people in Blue States, my suspicion is he is using this a psyops to draw them from PA, MI, WI, FL, and other close calls.

So yes, hammer down and I hope we get 350. But acting like it's in the bag and then some sounds reminiscent of this pol...