Posted on 03/19/2019 11:54:10 PM PDT by LibWhacker
UBS believes there will be very lucrative ramifications from the space flight efforts currently led by Virgin Galactic, SpaceX and Blue Origin.
A lengthy UBS report published on Sunday found that, in a decade, high speed travel via outer space will represent an annual market of at least $20 billion and compete with long-distance airline flights. Space tourism will be a $3 billion market by 2030, UBS estimates.
"While space tourism is still at a nascent phase, we think that as technology becomes proven, and the cost falls due to technology and competition, space tourism will become more mainstream," UBS analysts Jarrod Castle and Myles Walton wrote in the note. "Space tourism could be the stepping stone for the development of long-haul travel on earth serviced by space."
UBS expects the broader space industry, which is worth about $400 billion today, will double to $805 billion by 2030 when accounting for these innovations. While these sub-sectors would be a small part of that, Castle and Walton said "the outlook for the space economy, space tourism and long-haul travel using space has become much more bullish."
Private space companies "are investing aggressively across the space opportunity," UBS said, and the firm believes access to space "is the enabler to broader opportunities for investment." Revolutionizing long distance travel
Long haul airplane flights that are more than 10 hours in duration would "be cannibalized" by point-to-point flights on rockets, UBS said. The firm pointed to SpaceX's plans to use the massive Starship rocket it is building to fly as many as 100 people around the world in minutes. SpaceX said that Starship would be able to fly from New York to Shanghai in 39 minutes, rather than the 15 hours it takes currently by airplane. A rendering of SpaceX's Big Falcon Rocket (BFR). SpaceX A rendering of SpaceX's Big Falcon Rocket (BFR).
UBS estimates that there are more than 150 million passengers a year that fly routes longer than 10 hours. Last year, those routes saw 527,000 routes on airplane that had an average of 309 seats, UBS said.
"If we assume that 5 percent of these flights in the future are serviced by space at $2,500 per trip, the revenue opportunity as of today would be more than $20 billion per year as of today," UBS said
"Although some might view the potential to use space to service the long-haul travel market as science fiction, we think ... there is a large market," UBS said.
UBS noted that "it is unlikely that a rocket will carry over 300 people anytime soon," so the Starship's capacity of 100 will be the maximum for the foreseeable future. However, UBS believes there may be an "increased frequency of space travel during the day to enable the same volume of passengers," the firm said. Elon Musk reveals his plan to transport passengers anywhere on earth in under 60 minutes, for the price of a plane ticket Elon Musk reveals his plan to send passengers anywhere on Earth in under 60 minutes, for the price of a plane ticket 12:57 PM ET Fri, 29 Sept 2017 | 01:05
"Given the length of long-haul commercial travel, and the rules around crewing and take-off and landing time slot restrictions at airports, we think a re-usable rocket (especially if not land-based) would have materially better utilisation rates than a commercial plane," UBS said.
As a result, UBS believes the $20 billion estimate "could prove conservative," the firm said. More than 10 percent of people in a recent UBS survey said they would choose a spacecraft over an aircraft for long distance travel.
"While the timing of such a long haul service is uncertain, we think our base-case assumptions are conservative," UBS said. Space tourism's market potential
The billions of dollars pouring into private space companies represents "a high level" of capital formation, UBS said. Even though space tourism "is still nascent," UBS said they believe the sub-sector "will become mainstream as the technology becomes proven and cost falls."
To date, space tourism has largely been limited to the few flights organized by U.S.-based Space Adventures. Over the past two decades, the company has flown seven tourists using Russian Soyuz rockets. At a reported cost of more than $20 million per person, the private clients typically spent over a week on board the International Space Station.
But now "there are a number of commercial space ventures to open up suborbital travel," UBS noted. Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin are leading those efforts, both getting steadily closer to launching paying tourists.
"This area seems to be the market that has the greatest potential to gain traction quickly," UBS said. Virgin Galactic's First Spaceflight on December 13th 2018 Virgin Galactic sends its first test passenger to the edge of space 4:25 PM ET Fri, 22 Feb 2019 | 01:31
Virgin Galactic is deep into the development program of its spacecraft. Last month, the space venture owned by Sir Richard Branson sent test passenger Beth Moses on Virgin Galactic's spaceflight – a first for a private U.S. company. Virgin Galactic's spacecraft holds up to six passengers along with the two pilots. As the company has more than 600 would-be astronauts signed on to launch, Moses' work is key to preparing Virgin Galactic for commercial operations. Tickets for Virgin Galactic's flights are priced at $250,000 each.
UBS believes Virgin Galactic's business model, as both a tourism company and manufacturer of spaceships, mimics the growth of businesses in the early days of aviation.
"In this way history could repeat itself as United Airlines today can trace back its roots to the Boeing Aircraft & Transport Company," UBS said.
Blue Origin, the company founded by Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, is also nearing its first spaceflights with human passengers. Blue Origin is developing the New Shepard rocket system for the company's space tourism business.
As both Virgin Galactic and Blue Origin utilize reusable spacecraft systems, UBS believes the companies will be able to make space tourism "a more common occurrence" as reliability increases and prices decline.
"We estimate space tourism will be a $3 [billion plus per year] opportunity growing at double digit-rates," UBS said. "This would be similar to what happened in commercial aviation, especially after the rise of low-cost airlines."
SpaceX could also see significant cash flow from space tourism, UBS believes, through two different ventures. Elon Musk's company just completed a historic test flight of its Crew Dragon capsule, which will be able to send as many as four astronauts to the space station. UBS estimates that NASA will pay SpaceX about $58 million on average per astronaut, compared to the $81 million per astronaut for flights on Russian Soyuz rockets.
The second SpaceX opportunity is for early flights of Starship to send tourists on missions beyond the Earth's immediate orbit. In September, Musk announced Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa signed with SpaceX to fly around the moon on Starship. Maezawa expects to fly in 2023, with six to eight guests joining him for the flight.
No. This is a con. Not enough average folks are going to subject themselves to the G-forces of rocket travel just to satisfy another arrogant greedy technological industry that thinks it’s the best thing since sliced bread and everyone NEEDs it.
Just because something can be done, does not mean either that it will be done, or that it ought to be done. History is filled with technological achievements that never got an audience large enough to survive. “Rockets To Tokyo” won’t survive either.
Other than a convenience item, why would anyone spend over $2500 (I think this is way low a figure) to save a few hours flying to Australia. With technology today the need to be somewhere immediately is reduced.
Recommend you sell any SpaceX stock before the launch of that one.
Seriously, the justification of an industry around the whims of a few billionaire playboys for customers is just ridiculous. The cost, and risks, of space flight really need better reason. I am all for manned space exploration with some larger common goal in mind that will ultimately benefit mankind, but most of this current activity like launching Tesla's into space, is just vanity.
Exactly. I believe Einstien said that if you achieved the speed of light to you, the moving object, time seems relative. Everything appears normal to you but the world around you is changing. In other words, as I understand it if you’re in some kind of craft traveling at the speed of light, your on board clock is telling the time, relative to you but outside your craft time is speeding past.
In a decade, high speed travel via outer space will represent an annual market of at least $20 billion and compete with long-distance airline flights
I’m a broke bastard as always but where there is a will, there is a way!! I watch the air fares like some watch the stock market about 3 to 4 months before I want to go. I use Cheapoair.com. And living near Detroit, I fly out of Chicago for the cheaper rates yet.
Checking fares every day or 2, about a month and a half to a month before the date I want to go, the fares drop huge to fill empty seats on the plane(s)... what is usually a $1000 to $1200 rnd trip, last year I got it for $520 with one stop either in Shanghi(4 to 6hr layover) or 12hourDaytime) in Korea. which is cool because you can go out and check a few this out in that 12 hours. I kiteboarded the Han River last time in downtown Seoul!!
So, long story longer... lol... I actually took 2 trips last year, one to Thailand the other to Boracay Philippines. but they both played out the same. A $70 rnd trip Amtrak from the Motor City to Chicago. $3 dollar CTA to Ohare Int. Chicago to Seoul, Seoul to Boracay... $479 rnd trip! Cost of livin while there... hotel 2 block in off the beach $20... a $1.50 for a pack of cigs and 1 Buck for beer!!
I only go to Asia when I vacation. 1/4 of the cost of living anywhere else especially the Caribbean!
Enjoy this Video!! And turn it up if you got volume!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxaqoX2HGRA&t=0s
643 ea rn trp, Pittsburgh to DC to Beijing (23 hr layover ... no sightseeing, watched like a hawk and tucked away in a corner hotel) to Manila ...
About 2 day travel because of the 23 hr layover, fed two full meals and buffet in the AM.
My wife is Filipina so we had no stay overhead .... just souveniers and food while out shopping.
Mostly stayed with family.
Everyone fascinated with Liza's white guy and we all had a terrific time.
I doubt it, and I'm a sock-it-to-the-firewall space enthusiast. Even airlines struggle to turn profits, and that's been a continual problem. Thanks LibWhacker.
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