Posted on 12/02/2018 12:13:44 PM PST by blam
* John Hussman — the outspoken investor and former professor who's been predicting a stock crash — says traditionally diversified portfolios are set to offer their worst returns since the Great Depression over the next 12 years.
* Hussman explains why he sees a US stock market drop of more than 60% coming, and breaks down why the Federal Reserve's past actions have created the situation.
There's never been a worse time to be a conventional portfolio manager.
Well, maybe back in the deepest, darkest throes of the Great Depression that crushed the US economy way back in 1929. But not for the past 90-or-so years.
At least that's what John Hussman thinks. The former economics professor and current president of the Hussman Investment Trust has crunched the numbers and found that the future looks historically bleak for investors who aim for a traditionally diversified mix of holdings.
His methodology looks at a portfolio with 60% invested in the S&P 500, 30% in Treasury bonds, and 10% in Treasury bills — and it's designed to assess the expected total return over a forward 12-year horizon.
Hussman finds that at the stock market's all-time peak in September, this mix of investments was set to produce total returns of just 0.48% over that 12-year period. As you can see below — as signified by the blue line — that's the lowest since the Great Depression era of 1929.
Even though bond yields recently climbed and US stocks took a 10% hit, Hussman notes that the expected return climbed to just 1.29%, still Great Depression lows. This fact shows just how far stretched the market is right now —
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Exactly....I remember CNN beginning to air constant gloom and doom news reports and commentary when Bill Clintoon first started campaigning. The other leftist enemedia picked it up, and from then on it was constant negative reporting on the economy....virtually every hour on the hour....till election.
Every dip in the Dow became the end of the world if Clinton wasn't elected.
Very, very soon, the enemedia will add economic-disaster commentary to its hourly anti-Trumpism drum-beat....and this is what we'll continue to get throughout the 2020 campaign....you can bank on it.
....that is, if you still have a local bank to go to after the New York Slimes and the TV communtators talk the country into a media-induced Great Depression.
Leni
You should have diversified and put 50% in Megas.
Snicker. He doesn’t care what portfolio you use if you subscribe to one of his services.
This guy has been saying this for years and years.
Here’s a column from 2015: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150302.htm
Good thing most people ignored him because the Dow closed on the day of the article at 17,685.09
Close on 11/30/18 was 25,538.46
That’s a 44.4% gain in 3 years 8 months.
If you listen to this kind of advise you sit on the sidelines trying to time when to buy back in and there is always another crow cawing that the market will tank soon.
Most of the crashes are less than 20% and certainly less than 44% so riding out the dips is more prudent. The market is not the place for money you can’t wait out a dip for 6 months or more with in any case.
The man is hardly a crank. At the height of the tech-bubble, he used the same analysis to predict the NASDAQ would decline 83%....then the NASDAQ declined 83%
It’s like the Indian rain dances. Eventually, you know, it’s going to rain. At which point the knowing ones will look at the doubters and say, “See?”
Wow, what a dimwit.
It’s looting to take less money from citizens & corporations? How does this bozo square that with record tax revenues since the tax cuts and the historical correlation of increasing tax revenues with lowering of taxes.
Liberals don’t care what works; they care what supports their idea of what’s right, ie Government should control your money and give you what it thinks you should have. This guy sounds like someone operating with a liberal agenda.
The biggest problem we have financially is REAL: we spend more than we take in and are refusing to discharge debt we have accumulated.
That’s it. That is the absolute and real danger we face. There is nothing...NOTHING more dangerous to our national well being than that. Nearly every single thing that could happen that is bad for us stems from that fundamental, undeniable fact.
But nobody seems to care. So we are all going to ride this ship wherever it takes us, even if it ends up being the stern of the Titanic sliding into the water.
...If you listen to this kind of advise you sit on the sidelines trying to time when to buy back in and there is always another crow cawing that the market will tank soon.
Most Bull markets climb a “Wall of Worry”
and peak when optimism is highest.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wallofworry.asp
...The biggest problem we have financially is REAL: we spend more than we take in and are refusing to discharge debt we have accumulated.
...That’s it. That is the absolute and real danger we face. There is nothing...NOTHING more dangerous to our national well being than that.
Modern slaves are not in chains, they are in debt.
- Anonymous
And the Bankers who hold the debt
are best amoral
and at worst Satanic
How many declines has he projected that didn’t happen?
Stopped clock.
The Nasdaq Composite lost 78% of its value as it fell from 5046.86 to 1114.11.
Closing Friday 7,330.54
People that stayed in didn’t lose. Being diversified and not panicking are winning strategies. His prediction may have helped people that want to avoid the dips but it is very easy to sell at the low or on the way down and get gored a few times trying to time a buy back.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1320/nasdaq-historical-chart
Yeah, I looked him up...permabear of sorts...Was saying stocks overvalued by 100% in 2014...
I suspect that his followers missed out on a lot of gains.
However, even broken clock is correct twice a day...Hope he is wrong on this tho.
I agree. We will see no reduction in the Federal Budget. This debt will crush us, and this cake will be covered with the frosting of high inflation. When this happens, the best investment is VIPSX, inflation protected treasuries.
You need a healthy stomach lining to be an investor and the knowledge that there is no perfection.
The Obama years were a multi-year lesson in humility, and in holding to your course despite abysmal market conditions with no refuge in bonds. President Trump made a sea change. Once again American industry and capitalism are set free to soar. With the EU dampening productivity and competitiveness abroad we have the wind at our backs.
Best to remember that the main concern of economic prognosticators is their personal economic condition.
I blame bankers far less than the people who we elect who control the purse strings...
I don’t view the lending of money as inherently immoral.
However, I DO view the greedy taking of money at confiscatory rates in order to purchase votes and exercise power without restraint as inherently immoral.
A “Negative Nancy”. A “Whiny Weenie”.
Yeah. But nobody cares.
The people perpetrating this are going to ride this horse until it drops from exhaustion and dies, then like a flock of Blue Jays absconding with the contents of a bag of peanuts, are going to fly away at high speed in all directions with their booty in their beaks, leaving the rest of us to our devices.
Just how it is going to be.
POTUS is reducing the Federal budget. The other side of the equation is raising tax revenues. Tax revenues have risen 6% since the tax cuts. POTUS has been asking his cabinet to decrease spending 5% across the board. The path to reducing the debt is complicated by our crumbling infrastructure.
If President Trump had had cooperation from Congress the Nation would be further on the road to financial health. The Dems will do all they can to impede this process and push for wasteful spending. POTUS will be using their hunger for spending bills to get the infrastructure our country needs using private/Government partnerships where the Government puts up little of the cash.
I disagree with your premise and IMO if we are both here in 10 years we will be living in a time where the Federal Debt is much lower and the Government downsized and living with in it’s means. TRUMP 2020 or we will not get there.
If guess enough times, you might eventually guess correctly.
Part of a Democrat effort to talk us into a recession? It worked with the younger Bush, who refused to fight it, so expect it again.
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