The Pennsylvania race is a toss-up. But the narrative is a lock.

cnn ^

[ChicagoConservative27]

(CNN)The special election contest in southwest Pennsylvania will come to an end on Tuesday night and, though the winner remains in doubt, the post-election spin pretty much writes itself.

A new Monmouth University poll out Monday afternoon shows Democrat Conor Lamb leading GOP candidate Rick "I was Trump before Trump was Trump" Saccone, but the margin is slight -- meaning political operatives and pundits are preparing for all eventualities.

That includes the most powerful political pontificator in the land -- President Donald Trump. According to Axios, he is not-so-privately dumping on Saccone and his campaign, calling the Republican "weak." Meanwhile, Democrats are champing at the bit, prepared to declare Lamb's victory (or narrow defeat) -- in a district Trump won by nearly 20 points in 2016 -- a canary in the GOP's congressional coal mines. Here's what you can expect to hear beginning around the time the beers crack on Tuesday evening...

[DoodleDawg]

It’s going to depend on turnout. And recently the Democrats are turning out in better numbers than the Republicans.

[HamiltonJay]

No, this isn’t the case here.

Dems actually running a “nicer” campaign, the Saccone campaign and ads have been far more negative in general.

However, as I said, the Saccone campaign could have been run by any republican for the last 15 years or more.... IF the Trump I and D’s were going to show up to vote for that, they would have done it before 2016.

This election like all mid terms is about MOTIVATION, and the ads Saccone is running I have felt form day one are completely the wrong message. Yes, they are red meat ads that will play to the core R, but they are NOT going to motivate turnout outside of the reliable R voter... They aren’t going to motivate the MAGA I and D voter who showed up for Trump.

Basically the ads are just tie lamb to Pelosi... this literally could be any election for a decade or more ads running.. its like 2016 never happened.

If I were running the show I would play up the Trump win, and make the argument why the MAGA voters need to show up to keep Trump’s win going. That’s not the message Saccone has been making in fact Trump’s name has not really been mentioned by either candidate. Though in the last few days Saccone has been try to claim “I was Trump before Trump” in interviews, which is again TERRIBLE....

If the R’s lose this race, it will be because of messaging, and if the messaging in this race is what they plan on for November they will lose the house.

[Red Badger]

Maybe the (R) voters are just keeping mum.

As George Will (?) once said, voters don’t really pay attention until the World Series is over..............

[DoughtyOne]

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...this is a general all-purpose message, and should not be seen as targeting any individual I am responding to...

Just $662.00 dollars to 88.00%

[HamiltonJay]

Democrats are motivated, and the messaging that this Campaign has had, is literally the same messaging any R would have for the last 15 years or more... I don’t see that really motivating turnout beyond the core R voter...

The messaging has been BAD day one... Its only in the last few days I’ve heard Saccone even mention Trump’s name, the entire campaign both sides have not mentioned it.. unfortunately Saccone has been dropping it in interviews as an “I was Trump before Trump” type message.. which is BAD as well.

If the Messaging R’s have been employing in this special election is their game plan for the fall, they will lose the house. Saccone should win by a few points, but that’s not guaranteed, but the fact this race is so close, even if Saccone pulls it out, its clear evidence that the messaging is not motivating turnout!!!

This has been BAD guys, really Bad... if this is the model they plan for the fall, they will not get the MAGA i and D crossovers to turnout... and without them Dem enthusiam will certainly flip at least 23 close districts in the house.

The ads being run, if they were going to pull in these I and D Maga voters it would have pulled them in decades ago, because literallly these ads could be running for any R for the last 15 years... It bad, bad messaging.. its not going to get the folks who aren’t already motivated to show up to show up for Saccone. Which means its only going ot motivate the core R vote... and while that may be enough to squeeze out this district in the end, its NOT going to be enough in many others.

The GOP and their PAC’s better wake up and stop pretending 2016 didn’t happen... your messaging is NOT going to keep you the house if this is your plan for November.

[HamiltonJay]

No. Trust me.

Saccone SHOULD still win even with this bad messaging campaign by a few points, just due to the makeup of the district, but if the messaging of this campaign is what is planned for the fall, the R’s will lose at least 23 seats in the house, guaranteed.

However, I honestly would not be surprised if Lamb does squeak through. Reality is, if the R’s were putting up proper messaging this wouldn’t be a contest... they aren’t.. or at least aren’t putting up the type of messaging they need to.

[Mafe]

Lamb’s strong support probably has a lot to do with his coming out against stricter gun bans. If he was part of the feminist wing like Sanders/Warren/Harris, there’s no way he’d have such favorable numbers.

[Red Badger]

Where in PA is this district?.................

[TonyM]

Trump needs to be saying that if you liked the increase in take home pay and those bonuses many of you got from your employer this year and would like to see it again next year you need to for for the republican. If you would rather see your take home pay go down instead and risk losing your job instead of getting a bonus then vote for the democrat. Its your choice, choose wisely.

[Revel]

I predict that until Trump figures out how to tackle Vote Fraud then Republicans won’t be winning many elections. The democrats have vote fraud kicked into High gear now.

[edh]

“Where in PA is this district?.................”

SW PA ... outside of Pittsburgh.

[Republican Wildcat]

Indeed. Saccone would make a good House member, but unfortunately isn’t a great candidate compared to the candidate the Dems ran on the aesthetics...it shouldn’t matter, but it does.

Good looking can also backfire if they come across as arrogant and / or an airhead, though. But otherwise with a likeable personality it is an automatic +5 points to a candidate’s ceiling. Sad, but true, reality. It is why Roy Blunt had a closer race in Missouri in 2016. It is also why Josh Holmes may beat Claire McCaskill this year coupled with the she was already vulnerable to begin with, and John James, if he can raise enough money, may be able to defeat Debbie Stabenow in MI.

[Republican Wildcat]

I posted this on another thread - but compare the attention given to this race with the Georgia race last year. Everyone across the board was constantly talking about the Georgia race for weeks leading up to it - Rush, Hannity, and everyone else. It was all hands on deck. This race? It is occasionally mentioned in passing, but that’s it. It hasn’t been a major focal point of discussion at all like the Georgia race was.

[trebb]

That’s why I donated some to Saccone - the Dems pull no stops while too many Repubs are always ready to comment but never get around to acting - if we all acted like we talked, we’d be way ahead of the Dems and RINOs would be a thing of the past.

[HamiltonJay]

That’s because the GA race the Dems were talking up winning from the get go... they had their Silver Bullet candidate.

No democrat, even the most left wing, was talking about Lamb winning 3 months ago, because the make up of the district made that HIGHLY unlikely. Trump won the district by 20 points, Murphy had easily been re-elected multiple times and had he not gotten caught in the scandal he was, he would have handily won again.

This race is more of a surprise that the Dem is doing as well as he is. GA they were hyping that thing from the moment he announced.

Trust me, this race is FAR tighter than it ever should be, the messaging has been poor IMHO, and the democrats ARE motivated. Saccone should still win by a few points even with bad messaging.. but its not impossible that Lamb pulls this out.

Lamb also is running as a conservative democrat, he doesn’t want the folks that the guy in GA had visible in his orbit, if the public saw that, his numbers would tank overnight. That idiot in GA was running as a raging liberal, so he wanted all the nutters around him.

This is a far different race than GA, and honestly, if turnout is low, Lamb can very well win. Honestly Lamb has run a very appropriate campaign for this district. Saccone seems to just be relying on the district makeup to pull him over the line... this should happen, but its not beyond possibility that Lamb pulls a surprise W.

I have been worried from day one about Saccone’s messaging, because I don’t think its going motivate turnout... and that’s what any special election or midterm is about for the party in power particularly. Saccone’s messaging has pretty much been classic R red meat, and I don’t see this really pulling in the MAGA I and D voters who came out to vote for Trump... If that was what it took to get their vote, they would have voted R long long ago.... Red meat for the reliable base has its place in your messaging, but it can’t be the entire message, and pretty much that’s been Saccone’s message, and I am dubious of it.

If this messaging is a prototype for the fall midterms, the R’s are going to lose a lot of tight districts, and almost certainly the house. TO be fair most of the Ads are not sponsored by Saccone directly, but various R pacs and groups, and that’s what concerns me the most, that those ads are almost all red meat ads, and that’s not going to get those MAGA voters motivated to turn out.

Either way, we know tonight. However, IMHO, if Saccone only wins this thing by a few points, R’s NEED TO REALLY RETHINK THEIR MESSAGING BEFORE THE FALL!! Because its clear their message is not driving turnout. Obviously if Saccone loses, its even more proof that messaging is wrong/incomplete.

I live in this district, and I can say, without question, the R’s are fighting harder than I have ever seen here. I have been canvassed by both parted, I am contacted multiple times a day by R groups, above and beyond all the mailings and TV/Radio spots. IF R’s lose this, or if its even close, its NOT because the R’s didn’t fight hard.... like is often the case, it will be because their messaging is incorrect/incomplete.

[HamiltonJay]

Its SWPA... Pittsburgh Suburbs, Republican district for the most part, have better registration numbers... but this is going to be about turnout, and as I have stated elsewhere, I am worried that Saccone’s message is not going to drive turnout like it needs.

He should still win by a few points even with bad messaging, just based on district makeup... however, if turnout is low, Lamb can squeak in. There is NO doubt Democrats are going to crawl across broken glass to vote for Lamb here... huge enthusiasm gap is obvious.

The lower the turnout, the higher the likelihood Lamb wins.

To his credit, Lamb has run an appropriate campaign for this district, he’s played the conservative/Moderate democrat well, kept the nutters at bay, or at least well hidden.

[SamAdams76]

I agree. When Trump won, I was envisioning the Republicans running a lot of high energy and vibrant MAGA types for the House and Senate. What we've had so far is the same old, same old fuddy-duds.

I hope Saccone pulls it out but if he does, it will all be because of Trump.

[Red Badger]

What’s the weather like there today?....................

[HamiltonJay]

Weather won’t be a factor. Nice day for this time of year here.