I posted this on another thread - but compare the attention given to this race with the Georgia race last year. Everyone across the board was constantly talking about the Georgia race for weeks leading up to it - Rush, Hannity, and everyone else. It was all hands on deck. This race? It is occasionally mentioned in passing, but that’s it. It hasn’t been a major focal point of discussion at all like the Georgia race was.
That’s because the GA race the Dems were talking up winning from the get go... they had their Silver Bullet candidate.
No democrat, even the most left wing, was talking about Lamb winning 3 months ago, because the make up of the district made that HIGHLY unlikely. Trump won the district by 20 points, Murphy had easily been re-elected multiple times and had he not gotten caught in the scandal he was, he would have handily won again.
This race is more of a surprise that the Dem is doing as well as he is. GA they were hyping that thing from the moment he announced.
Trust me, this race is FAR tighter than it ever should be, the messaging has been poor IMHO, and the democrats ARE motivated. Saccone should still win by a few points even with bad messaging.. but its not impossible that Lamb pulls this out.
Lamb also is running as a conservative democrat, he doesn’t want the folks that the guy in GA had visible in his orbit, if the public saw that, his numbers would tank overnight. That idiot in GA was running as a raging liberal, so he wanted all the nutters around him.
This is a far different race than GA, and honestly, if turnout is low, Lamb can very well win. Honestly Lamb has run a very appropriate campaign for this district. Saccone seems to just be relying on the district makeup to pull him over the line... this should happen, but its not beyond possibility that Lamb pulls a surprise W.
I have been worried from day one about Saccone’s messaging, because I don’t think its going motivate turnout... and that’s what any special election or midterm is about for the party in power particularly. Saccone’s messaging has pretty much been classic R red meat, and I don’t see this really pulling in the MAGA I and D voters who came out to vote for Trump... If that was what it took to get their vote, they would have voted R long long ago.... Red meat for the reliable base has its place in your messaging, but it can’t be the entire message, and pretty much that’s been Saccone’s message, and I am dubious of it.
If this messaging is a prototype for the fall midterms, the R’s are going to lose a lot of tight districts, and almost certainly the house. TO be fair most of the Ads are not sponsored by Saccone directly, but various R pacs and groups, and that’s what concerns me the most, that those ads are almost all red meat ads, and that’s not going to get those MAGA voters motivated to turn out.
Either way, we know tonight. However, IMHO, if Saccone only wins this thing by a few points, R’s NEED TO REALLY RETHINK THEIR MESSAGING BEFORE THE FALL!! Because its clear their message is not driving turnout. Obviously if Saccone loses, its even more proof that messaging is wrong/incomplete.
I live in this district, and I can say, without question, the R’s are fighting harder than I have ever seen here. I have been canvassed by both parted, I am contacted multiple times a day by R groups, above and beyond all the mailings and TV/Radio spots. IF R’s lose this, or if its even close, its NOT because the R’s didn’t fight hard.... like is often the case, it will be because their messaging is incorrect/incomplete.