Posted on 11/08/2017 3:01:01 AM PST by Moseley
People asked a few months ago during debates Can Ed Gillespie win in Virginia? It struck me how this is a totally meaningless and absurd question.
Of course Ed Gillespie could win.
Of course Ed Gillespie could lose.
Months ago, I rejected the dominant thinking that Candidate A (automatically) wins while Candidate B (automatically) loses. Its how a candidate campaigns for office that counts. Yet all of our thinking and talking suggests that Candidate A wins merely and exclusively because she is A while Candidate B loses merely and exclusively because he is B.
First, the Republican Party has to grapple with what is the correct theory or strategy for winning elections. I keep saying: Tell me your theory about how to win a general election state-wide and I will tell you whom you are backing as your candidate. The wings of the GOP are torn among different theories for how to win. The wings are unable to cooperate or agree on anything because our theories of elections are incompatible.
We have to break the fever and kill the infection. The GOP cannot prosper until the disease is driven from the body. The establishments strategy for winning (general) elections is the problem. Its not the candidates. The candidates are chosen to carry out the electoral strategy. Its the strategy that is a proven loser.
So November 7 the establishment insider theories about winning elections were once again burned to the ground in Virginias campaign for Governor. Time and time again, the liberal Republican establishments view of the world has a head-on collision with reality. Unwilling to learn the lessons of Ronald Reagan and his bold colors, no pale pastels and the clarion call A Choice Not an Echo by Phyllis Schlafly, the establishment clings bitterly to their losing game plan.
(Excerpt) Read more at fairfaxfreecitizen.com ...
The voters nominated Gillespie to be the standard bearer. If Conservatives are the preferred candidates, then how did Gillespie get enough votes to beat Stewart?
Who defines what a moderate or a conservative is. Gillespie is a pro-lifer who supports the 2nd amendment. He is allegedly against sanctuary cities and wants to eradicate MS-13. We have so-called Conservatives like Ted Cruz and Mike Lee who support doubling or tripling H-1B visas. We have the Koch brothers and their subsideraries like Americans for Prosperity pushing open borders and free trade. The Chamber of Commerce is trying to block much of the Trump agenda.
Trump is not a conservative but pushes much of the conservative agenda. How effective are these labels in defining whom we should support and not support? The National Review devoted an entire edition to stop Trump and many of the #NeverTrumpers like Steven Hayes, Bill Kristol, Evan McMillian, etc. call themselves conservatives. Ted Cruz withheld his endorsement of Trump at the convention. Jeff Flake and Bob Corker openly mock and criticize President Trump. Can anyone imagine a Dem doing that when one of their own is under attack? Hell they held a pity party at the WH when Clinton got impeached.
Define moderate for me. What are the litmus tests for a conservative?
The voters nominated Gillespie to be the standard bearer. If Conservatives are the preferred candidates, then how did Gillespie get enough votes to beat Stewart?
________________________________________________________
Because too much of the Republican Party is convinced of the false theory that a moderate will win.
Republican primary voters supported Gillespie on the “promise” that Gillespie would win whereas Stewart would not.
That theory is false. The GOP establishment has deceived itself and deceived the voters.
The evidence is clear: The conservatives got more votes than the moderate, on the same day, on the same ballot, by the same voters.
Remember: that was the appeal during the primary: Gillespie is the one who can win.
He couldn’t.
And he did worse than conservative candidates.
Not only that but the Lt. Governor’s race was just about ignored compared to the top of the ticket.
Who defines what a moderate or a conservative is. Gillespie is a pro-lifer who supports the 2nd amendment. He is allegedly against sanctuary cities and wants to eradicate MS-13
________________________________________________
Ed Gillespie defines himself as a moderate (or centrist).
https://pjmedia.com/jchristianadams/gillespies-virginia-loss-messages-2004-tactics-1996/
Ed Gillespie is pro-amnesty and a prime mover in promoting amnesty.
Here is the definition of a moderate: Having paid campaign consultants write fake Pro-Life issues and second amendment issues on your website that you don’t actually believe.
You seem to ignore the impact of the changing demography of VA. Immigration has changed the electoral politics of this country. We have brought in over 30 million LEGAL PERMANENT IMMIGRANTS since 1990 or the equivalent of the current population of Canada. Immigrants use welfare to a much greater extent than the native born. 87% of the 1.1 million legal immigrants we bring in annually are minorities as defined by the USG. Immigrants and minorities vote more than two to one Dem. VA has one of the highest number of immigrants of any state in the country. The real incompetence of the GOP is its failure to reduce the level of immigration and number of guest workers. Both parties have abandoned the American worker.
They ensured that the Democrat Chuck Robb won the US Senate seat. Virginia has been sliding blue ever since.
The facts don't support that.
No doubt but Jill Vogel was a MAGA candidate and still lost by 140,000.
_________________________________________
But the theory that was put to the test was that a moderate / centrist Ed Gillespie could do BETTER than a conservative or MAGA candidate.
The theory — now proven wrong (again and again and again) — that moderates do better was put to the test and failed.
The establishment’s religious dogma that centrist candidates do better than conservatives was put to the test... and proven wrong.
It has always been proven wrong.
Just ask President Bob Dole. President Mitt Romney. President John McCain.
Heck, ask Senator Ed Gillespie who was supposed to beat Mark Warner in Virginia in 2014.
If Ed Gillespie were the answer, why didn’t he win for US Senate in 2014?
Bottom line: It is time for the Republican establishment and their crooked campaign consultants to step aside, go home, and let the adults run elections.
There is NO WAY New Mexico only grew by 512 immigrants from 2010-2014 and can place that low in ranking. It grew more than that in just my city in the 4 corners in probably a month.
Democrat turnout was down 576,000 since the Presidential election.
Gillespie didnt fire up the base or the MAGA vote.
Gillespie got more votes than any GOP gubernatorial candidate in VA history and the second most votes all time. Gillespie's vote total would have won every race since 1949 except this one.
the fact Jill outperformed Gillespie, proves MAGA outperforms GOPe...
Why did Romney receive 53,000 more votes in 2012 than Trump did in 2016?
Personally if the #2 outperformed the top of the ticket 2.5 points, not all that hard to believe hat MAGA been at the top of the ticket in the first place that a 4 point swing in the race would not be impossible, and a 4 point swing, the R wins....
LOL. If ifs and buts were like candy and nuts, what a fine world we would have. Vogel lost by 140,000 votes. It wasn't close.
So I dont buy that VA is unwinable... Just have to have the right folks running with the right message.... the GOPe made sure that wasnt going to happen.
You were woefully wrong this time in your predictions and you will be again in the future. I told you what would happen. Hear me now, believe me later.
You left out that Hillary got 1,981,473 votes. How many did Northam “leave on the table?”
That scenario could actually be avoided.
Tysons Corner (I am only two miles from there) has become a booming metropolis including several metro stops. Traffic is heavy. The liberals have taken over.
VA is turning solid blue. NoVA is increasing in population while the rest of the state is declining in population for the most part. The wealth is increasingly being concentrated in NoVA. VA is gone in terms of the GOP in future statewide elections.
Was McDonnell a moderate? I was part of the Rep party in Fairfax County dutifully attending the FCRC, acting as a poll watcher, attending state conventions as a delegate, etc. I was at the convention when we got Jeff Frederick elected as Chairman of the VA GOP much to the chagrin of John Hager. And I was down in Richmond protesting Jeff's removal.
I conducted one on one briefings on immigration with Eric Cantor, George Allen, and yes, Ed Gillespie. I did others with Rep candidates and was part of the Middle Resolution screening committee on candidates. I also was part of the VA Tea Party and helped sponsor the Richmond convention. And I helped Dave Brat beat Cantor using 40,000 robocalls. I worked with Dave Albo on getting immigration-related legislation passed in the VA legislature, a number of which became law.
You can pontificate all you want about the GOP in VA. I am intimately familiar with all of it.
Republican primary voters supported Gillespie on the promise that Gillespie would win whereas Stewart would not.
Corey lost by less than a percent. I don't know how you can draw such conclusions in a race that was decided by a razor thin margin. Maybe Vogel got her additional votes from disgruntled Stewart voters who refused to vote for Gillespie.
The evidence is clear: The conservatives got more votes than the moderate, on the same day, on the same ballot, by the same voters.
It really proves nothing. Both lost big. Romney received 53,000 more votes than Trump. Romney received more votes in VA than any GOP Presidential candidate in history.
What else would you expect a candidate to say, especially one who almost took down Warner.
I don't care who the candiate was. Northam would have beat any of them. The resounding defeat of conservatives like Bob Marshall in the House of Delegates along with many other Rep incumbents should indicate the size and scope of the Dem victory. Before it is all over, there will be no elected Reps in NoVA. Even a RINO like Barbara Comstock is headed for defeat in 2018.
So was George Bush, the Gang of 8, the fourteen Rep senators who helped pass the amnesty bill in 2013 in the Senate. Rubio got more votes than Trump in 2016 in FL. Ted Cruz supported amnesty until he didn't.
Although Ed Meese said it was his worst mistake, Reagan presided over the 1986 amnesty (Simpson-Mazzoli).
If there weren't enough of them last year to carry Virginia for Trump, why would there be enough this year to carry the state for Gillespie?
From the article:
The Ronald Reagan theory, time tested, is that campaigns must persuade. The establishment wants to simply be an ink blot test and match the electorate. Ronald Reagan moved the electorate. Put simply, conservatives propose to give voters actual reasons to vote for them. The establishment wants votes to simply fall in their laps, without any real effort. In fact, if you really talk to an establishment Republican they are allergic to the whole idea of persuading anyone. They want to cut deals with the static lay of the land, whereas conservatives want to run a dynamic, game-changing campaign.
Try running a "dynamic, game-changing campaign" in Massachusetts or Vermont or New York and see where it gets you.
Sometimes the time is right for something like that. Most of the time it isn't. And even when it does work for a Republican in a Democrat state (which Virginia apparently is now), the positions and strategy probably aren't going to please conservative purists.
Reagan would most likely have lost if he'd been nominated in 1976 or 1968. He was fortunate that he was nominated in a year when the electorate was responsive to his message. Gillespie could have followed a different strategy and most likely he would still have lost.
Why do you keep repeating this nonsense? Vogel wasn't running for Governor. And she lost badly. Does this prove the theory that MAGA candidates can't win in VA? MAGA is not synonymous with conservative. Trump did worse than Romney.
Just ask President Bob Dole. President Mitt Romney. President John McCain.
I was a supporter of Trump the day he descended down the elevator. He defeated 16 other Reps despite no one giving him a chance of even getting the nomination. Were you supporting Trump from the beginning? Or were you supporting the "conservatives" like Cruz and Walker?
Heck, ask Senator Ed Gillespie who was supposed to beat Mark Warner in Virginia in 2014.
No one gave Gillespie a chance against Warner.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.