It’s Your Losing Strategy, Not Our Candidate [Virginia election losses]

Fairfax Free Citizen ^ | November 8, 2017 | Jonathon A Moseley

[Moseley]

People asked a few months ago during debates “Can Ed Gillespie win in Virginia?” It struck me how this is a totally meaningless and absurd question.

Of course Ed Gillespie could win.

Of course Ed Gillespie could lose.

Months ago, I rejected the dominant thinking that Candidate A (automatically) wins while Candidate B (automatically) loses. It’s how a candidate campaigns for office that counts. Yet all of our thinking and talking suggests that Candidate A wins merely and exclusively because she is “A” while Candidate B loses merely and exclusively because he is “B.”

First, the Republican Party has to grapple with what is the correct theory or strategy for winning elections. I keep saying: Tell me your theory about how to win a general election state-wide and I will tell you whom you are backing as your candidate. The wings of the GOP are torn among different theories for how to win. The wings are unable to cooperate or agree on anything because our theories of elections are incompatible.

We have to break the fever and kill the infection. The GOP cannot prosper until the disease is driven from the body. The establishment’s strategy for winning (general) elections is the problem. It’s not the candidates. The candidates are chosen to carry out the electoral strategy. It’s the strategy that is a proven loser.

So November 7 the establishment insider theories about winning elections were once again burned to the ground in Virginia’s campaign for Governor. Time and time again, the liberal Republican establishment’s view of the world has a head-on collision with reality. Unwilling to learn the lessons of Ronald Reagan and his “bold colors, no pale pastels” and the clarion call A Choice Not an Echo by Phyllis Schlafly, the establishment clings bitterly to their losing game plan.

[kabar]

See my post #38.

[kabar]

Gillespie was not the problem in this election. Yes, he was an amnesty supporting RINO, but he got more votes than conservative Ken Cuccinelli or McAwful for that matter. Northam had a 30% increase in votes. No Rep is going to beat those numbers.

Trump couldn't even top Romney's numbers in 2012. He got 53,000 fewer votes. VA is a blue state and becoming more so with each election. Denial just ain't a river in Egypt.

[central_va]

Gillespie was not the problem in this election.

This is where you are going off the rails. Less than half the voting public voted. A MAGA candidate would have won. Trump would have come down and supported him/her. It would have received major publicity. You are telling me that the candidate (A Democrat Lite in the case) doesn't matter? WHAT PLANET ARE YOU FROM?

[Robert DeLong]

the establishment clings bitterly to their losing game plan.

And they wonder why they are called the stupid party.

[kabar]

This is where you are going off the rails. Less than half the voting public voted. A MAGA candidate would have won.

Trump, the ultimate MAGA candidate, got 53,000 fewer votes than Romney did in 2012. He lost to Hillary by 220,000 votes.

Vogel was a MAGA candidate and lost by 140,000 votes.

You are telling me that the candidate (A Democrat Lite in the case) doesn't matter? WHAT PLANET ARE YOU FROM?

I am from Realville. The Dems have won the last 13 statewide races. VA is a solid blue state akin to CA. It wouldn't matter who the Reps had as a candidate today, even Reagan, he would lose. Demography is destiny.

[central_va]

Then give up. I will send you razor blades.

[HLPhat]

>>Every time a Republican runs as a "Democrat-lite" the voters would rather have a real Democrat.

Uhuh.

WHAT. DEFINES. CONSERVATISM?

 

Luke 17:1-4

7 Jesus said to his disciples: "Things that cause people to sin are bound to come, but woe to that person through whom they come. 2 It would be better for him to be thrown into the sea with a millstone tied around his neck than for him to cause one of these little ones to sin. 3 So watch yourselves.

"If your brother sins, rebuke him, and if he repents, forgive him. 4 If he sins against you seven times in a day, and seven times comes back to you and says, 'I repent,' forgive him."

NIV

[Jane Long]

BTTT!

[Jim Noble]

The facts are these: The GOP will do anything, including lie, chest, steal, and lose both Houses of Congress, to be rid of Donald Trump.

They don’t like him, they don’t want him, they believe his failure is their success, and they will do whatever it takes to have him gone.

I said on Inauguration Day that Trump had six months to decide whether or not to dispense with the GOP. He got bad advice, IMO, and chose to act as if he and the GOP were allies, when they are not.

Now, he is going to have to shift course, time is short before November 2018, and he has squandered a lot of what he had going for him 10 months ago.

However, he still has one big thing - he’s a real American, and lots of real Americans have his back.

[HamiltonJay]

Gillespie didn’t get it done, he lost by 10, to think he got the job done is a bit odd.

Both sides left over 1 Million votes on the table from the Presidential race... Turnout is always lower in an off year, but to think the votes aren’t there to be had is a bit disingenuous.

You may be right that an R can’t win no matter what, but Gillespie didn’t get it done. I believe a MAGA candidate would have gotten a better turnout.... Saying Gillespie did his job, sorry, but you don’t run a Jeb Bush candidate and campaign in the age of Trump and expect to win... Gillespie winning, had it happened, would have been in spite of himself IMHO.

Either way, its in the record books now... NOVA is a cancer, and Until Trump drains the DC swamp will continue to pull VA down the cess pool

[Moseley]

” Regardless of whom the GOP puts up in statewide elections, they will lose. Gillespie was not my candidate, but the numbers show that he did his part but it just wasn't enough given the huge and growing edge the Dems have in VA, especially NoVA. “

You completely miss the point. Ed Gillespie, the Ink Blot Test candidate, was offered as the SOLUTION to all of these factors.

Did it work?

NO!

You suggest that no Republican could win.

But the whole purpose of Ed Gillespie's campaign was that by playing Mr. Rogers Ed Gillespie COULD win over those voters.

The theory was tested.

The theory is wrong.

The establishment philosophy is an abject failure.

[Moseley]

How is it that Virginia State Senator Jill Vogel got 47.66% of the vote Statewide while “Mr. Insider” Ed Gillespie got only 45.34% of the vote? Note that was on the same ballot on the same day from the same turnout of the same electorate.

Vogel still lost by 140,000 votes.

_________________________________________________________

But the conservative (Vogel) got MORE votes than the moderate (Gillespie).

That is a total failure of the establishment philosophy.

The whole reason for nominating Ed Gillespie was that Establishment Ed would win *MORE* votes than a conservative would.

Totally wrong.

We put the theories to the test.

The theory that a moderate will get more votes than a conservative is PROVEN FALSE.

Ed Gillespie was supposed to be the SOLUTION to Fairfax, etc.

He wasn’t.

The establishment solution just does not work.

Running a moderate does NOT attract moderate voters.

Moderate voters do not want a moderate candidate.

Like everyone else moderates want a FIGHTER who is going to fight FOR THEM and solve their problems and make their lives better.

I don’t want moderation in fighting for me.

The rude, nasty, uncivil, obnoxious Democrats are perceived as someone who will FIGHT FOR ME. And they won.

[Moseley]

Every time a Republican runs as a “Democrat-lite” the voters would rather have a real Democrat. The GOPe does cling to a losing strategy.

_______________________________________________

Bingo. Exactly.

[Moseley]

It seems to me that both Democrats and GOPe lie to their voters to get elected. That may not work as well in the future as it has in the past.

______________________________________________________

I think the rampant lying to the voters is the #1 issue.

[kabar]

Gillespie didn’t get it done, he lost by 10, to think he got the job done is a bit odd.

Who said he got the job done? It was an impossible task no matter who took it on. Gillespie did attract more votes than Cuccinelli and McAwful in 2013.

Both sides left over 1 Million votes on the table from the Presidential race... Turnout is always lower in an off year, but to think the votes aren’t there to be had is a bit disingenuous.

Duh. This is the case in every off year, non-Presidential election. Northam received an amazing number of votes, just about 500,000 less than Hillary received in 2016. It shows that the Dem voters are motivated and energized. The midterms will be a real test for the Reps. Even in the special elections since Trump took office, the Dem turnout has been large.

I believe a MAGA candidate would have gotten a better turnout....

No doubt but Jill Vogel was a MAGA candidate and still lost by 140,000.

Either way, its in the record books now... NOVA is a cancer, and Until Trump drains the DC swamp will continue to pull VA down the cess pool

VA is now a solid blue state. The Reps will continue to lose statewide elections. This is what needs to be taken away.

[Moseley]

VA has been transformed into a solid blue state thru demography.

___________________________________________________

No, Virginia has been transformed into a solid blue state through Republican INCOMPETENCE.

The GOP has been losing for decades by DEFAULT to the Democrat Party.

This started when Republican voters nominated Col. Oliver North for US Senate in 1994.

The GOP establishment wanted to over-turn the decision of the the Republican primary voters of Virginia. So they fielded a spoiler candidate moderate Republican Marshall Coleman to run as an Independent.

They ensured that the Democrat Chuck Robb won the US Senate seat.

Virginia has been sliding blue ever since.

[HamiltonJay]

Republican turnout was down more than 500k from the Presidential election... Gillespie didn’t fire up the base or the MAGA vote... you think the Lt Governors race is going to draw turnout? You’re joking right? Top of the ticket drives turnout,... the fact Jill outperformed Gillespie, proves MAGA outperforms GOPe... but MAGA down ticket isn’t going to draw in voters..

Had the top of the TIcket been MAGA/Disruptor candidate, the R may still have lost, but I certainly not by the margins Mr. GOPe did.

Personally if the #2 outperformed the top of the ticket 2.5 points, not all that hard to believe hat MAGA been at the top of the ticket in the first place that a 4 point swing in the race would not be impossible, and a 4 point swing, the R wins....

I have heard people tell me PA is permanently blue for years... and its always Philly that screws the pooch... So I don’t buy that VA is unwinable... Just have to have the right folks running with the right message.... the GOPe made sure that wasn’t going to happen.

[FranklinsTower]

To support your post with numbers...

Trump got 1,769,443 votes in 2016.

Gillespie got 1,172,795
Northam got 1,404,884

Vogel got 1,222,648

Adams got 1,207,223

What these numbers tell you is GOPe Gillespie left a lot of potential voters on the table — close to 600,000 of them.

The fact that two down ticket candidates that ran with conviction as solid Trump conservatives did better than Gillespie tells the story.

Mushy middle politics by the GOPe should be swept into the dustbin of history.

[Alas Babylon!]

I was a young Staff Sergeant in 1984 when I was assigned to DIA at Arlington Hall Station in Arlington, just East of Seven Corners, which is just East of Falls Church.

The whole area, from there Westward seemed to me to be a well-off middle to upper class neighborhood with Republican values. We moved DIA to Bolling AFB in DC shortly thereafter, but I always liked that area of Northern Virginia.

After my divorce in 1989 I moved to a small apartment in Arlington, close to the Pentagon were I was now assigned. I was right off of Columbia Pike (Greenbrier) and I can tell you Columbia Pike seemed like Columbia the country by that time—five years later! The whole place was dominated by Hondurans, Guatemalans and El Salvadorians. Very few Mexicans, actually. Also a lot of Muslims and Southeast Asians.

I went back overseas in 1991, spending all my time in Europe and the Middle East.

I can only imagine how different that whole area is now! I have not been back since 1991. I did go and visit the Pentagon on a road trip back in August of 2001, a couple of weeks before 911. I noticed a host of changes there in the South parking and Helipad sides.

I’d be interested in going back, but I’d never want to live there again.

What about the REST of the state? Seems the GOP did poorly across the state—not just NOVA. THAT has me worried.

[kabar]

You completely miss the point. Ed Gillespie, the Ink Blot Test candidate, was offered as the SOLUTION to all of these factors. Did it work? NO!

Your perception is not reality. Ed Gillespie became the nominee by defeating Corey Stewart, the conservative, by less than one percent in the primary. If Corey had received more votes, he would have been the nominee and I guess an "Inkblot Test Candidate." The primary demonstrated that the GOP was almost evenly split.

Gillespie received more votes than any Rep candidate in the history of VA. His 1,172,533 votes topped the previous high of Bob McDonnell in 2009 --1,163,523 votes. Gillespie's vote total would have won every VA gubernatorial race since 1949 except this year when Northam won the highest vote total ever for a Dem or any other candidate. The Dems have won four out of the last five gubernatorial races.

Was Bob McDonnell a Conservative?

You suggest that no Republican could win.

I didn't suggest it. I state it as a matter of fact after 13 straight defeats in statewide elections. I predict that no Rep will win another statewide election for a very long time. Kaine will defeat Stewart easily. VA is a solid blue state and it isn't going back any more than CA will return as a red state. Demography is destiny.

The theory was tested. The theory is wrong. The establishment philosophy is an abject failure.

Pure nonsense. Cuccinelli, a conservative, got the nomination in 2013 and lost. What theory was tested in this case?