https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/07/gillespie-robo-call-trump-make-america-great-244645
Looks like we could make a trade tonight: New Jersey for Virginia.
OK. To start with, any rat in a statewide office in VA has a 3 to 5 point lead just for breathing. The demographics have changed and the People’s Republic of Northern Virginia has tipped the scales to the extent that VA is pretty much a blue state. The stars all have to pretty much be in alignment for a gop candidate to win.
That said, my prediction is Amnesty Ed wins in a squeaker with Jill Vogel winning as well. Why:
-Amnesty Ed ran a competent campaign. This is almost unheard of for a Virginia gop gubernatorial candidate. But he has done a surprisingly good job. No stupid mistakes. He may be an establishment putz, but he ran a good campaign.
- There was no organized opposition within the gop to Amnesty Ed’s candidacy as Cuccinelli faced in 2013.
-The ad. It did p### off some folks that otherwise stay home.
- Northam didn’t rally the rat base.
-Corey Stewart has been actively campaigning for him and DJT has endorsed. That helped persuade some conservatives who think Ed sucks to show up.
-Down ticket candidates, especially Jill Vogel, are pretty good and may have a small coattail effect.
- No Robert Sarvis to bleed off votes. The libertarian candidate wasn’t that active and didn’t have the funding Sarvis did in 2013.
- The weather in the liberal belt of Virginia sucks today. Wet, rainy, cold, and miserable.
-I’ve seen mention of reliable polls that say Northam has it by a couple points. Virginia is incredibly tough to poll, especially in an odd numbered year. As there are elections here every year, people have become quite adept at avoiding and lying to pollsters.
All in all, Amnesty Ed has played his cards remarkably well and has been very lucky.
And lest I forget to mention it: politics is a scam.
Franklin County, VA - conservative stronghold.
Voted about 11 AM and there was a line with lots of people coming and going. I’d say it was similar to 2016.
The entire state could vote republican and be overridden by the deep state residing in Fairfax County.
If he wins, the psychological effect of his victory across the fruited plain will be enormous, and President Trump will benefit to the max.
New Jersey will undoubtedly elect a RAT governor, but then, that's expected on both sides....and the result in NJ will have little to no effect on the MAGA movement.
However, if Gillespie wins in Virginia, it will create positive energy, high excitement and many benefits to the GOP in the ensuing four year term.
To boot, the President will know how to handle Gillespie to the benefit of his administration and his policies....and Ed will owe him big time for his endorsement.
See y'all for a Gillespie victory party tonight on the pages of FR !
Leni
Voted at 4:25 p.m. at Sarah’s Creek precinct in Gloucester Point - very conservative area — I was #909. Decent turnout today.
Wisconsin is sending Prayers to Virginia, today!
For reasons I cannot quite understand, the returns from NoVa (the DC suburbs such as Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, etc.) always come in late. Why? Just because there are more votes to count? How, then, is it that Philadelphia’s returns are always among the first to report in Pennsylvania?
Well, whatever, it’s a well-established and predictable trend. The NoVa vote, which will be strongly for Northam, will be reported late. Gillespie should lead early, but unless it’s a double-digit lead with 50% in, I won’t get too excited.
No moss on the NYT. They are showing live estimate of final vote as:
Northam +10
Gillespie +10
Estimated vote:
Gillespie 48.8%
Northam 48.8%
Hyra and others 2.4%
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/virginia-governor-election-gillespie-northam
VA polls close at 7:00 p.m. ET.
People from Alaska can vote in that election?
I’m 1500 miles away without a vote in this election, but have a general mistrust in polls - all of which say this race is virtually tied.
Gillespie will win by 5+ points.
Early results:
Gillespie 471 votes with 55.2%
Northam 372 votes with 43.6%
NYT results
Gillespie 1,613 votes 52.9%
Northam 1,404 votes 46.0%
NYT results
Gillespie 6,751 votes 50.4%
Northam 6,489 votes 48.4%
I like the return to paper ballots, to hell with those cards.
Beware the paper ballots that the DEMs have stored in car trunks, waiting for the moment to submit them if the good guys get ahead. Sometimes ya can’t find voting machines in VA, so I hear.