OK. To start with, any rat in a statewide office in VA has a 3 to 5 point lead just for breathing. The demographics have changed and the People’s Republic of Northern Virginia has tipped the scales to the extent that VA is pretty much a blue state. The stars all have to pretty much be in alignment for a gop candidate to win.
That said, my prediction is Amnesty Ed wins in a squeaker with Jill Vogel winning as well. Why:
-Amnesty Ed ran a competent campaign. This is almost unheard of for a Virginia gop gubernatorial candidate. But he has done a surprisingly good job. No stupid mistakes. He may be an establishment putz, but he ran a good campaign.
- There was no organized opposition within the gop to Amnesty Ed’s candidacy as Cuccinelli faced in 2013.
-The ad. It did p### off some folks that otherwise stay home.
- Northam didn’t rally the rat base.
-Corey Stewart has been actively campaigning for him and DJT has endorsed. That helped persuade some conservatives who think Ed sucks to show up.
-Down ticket candidates, especially Jill Vogel, are pretty good and may have a small coattail effect.
- No Robert Sarvis to bleed off votes. The libertarian candidate wasn’t that active and didn’t have the funding Sarvis did in 2013.
- The weather in the liberal belt of Virginia sucks today. Wet, rainy, cold, and miserable.
-I’ve seen mention of reliable polls that say Northam has it by a couple points. Virginia is incredibly tough to poll, especially in an odd numbered year. As there are elections here every year, people have become quite adept at avoiding and lying to pollsters.
All in all, Amnesty Ed has played his cards remarkably well and has been very lucky.
And lest I forget to mention it: politics is a scam.
Saw this Dem hoping for an opportunity, here ⬇
12 House Rs vacating winnable seats so far:
Ros-Lehtinen
Reichert
Trott
Dent
Murphy
Tiberi
Jenkins
Pearce
Renacci
Barletta
McSally
LoBiondo— Jesse Lehrich (@JesseLehrich) November 7, 2017
Sarvis and Hyra are both LINOs. Most Libertarian candidates these days are. None more so than Johnson and Weld.
The GOP is fortunate that Northam is a terrible candidate and that Gillespie lost a statewide race in a squeaker (2014 Senate race against Mark Warner). I agree that downticket will help and that Vogel will prob. win Lt. Governor. The big problem remains Fairfax with a huge concentration of federal employees, with heavy support from Arlington and Alexandria which will give Northam prob. a 200,000 vote edge that needs to be made up in the rural/small town areas of the “real” Virginia. If Gillespie can take Loudon and Prince William counties, I think he will win; if not, we may be waiting, as is traditional, for the “held’ votes in Norfolk and Newport News to come in at their usual 9.8 to 1 for the Dems.