The GOP is fortunate that Northam is a terrible candidate and that Gillespie lost a statewide race in a squeaker (2014 Senate race against Mark Warner). I agree that downticket will help and that Vogel will prob. win Lt. Governor. The big problem remains Fairfax with a huge concentration of federal employees, with heavy support from Arlington and Alexandria which will give Northam prob. a 200,000 vote edge that needs to be made up in the rural/small town areas of the “real” Virginia. If Gillespie can take Loudon and Prince William counties, I think he will win; if not, we may be waiting, as is traditional, for the “held’ votes in Norfolk and Newport News to come in at their usual 9.8 to 1 for the Dems.
Any chance the Republicans will have lots of poll observers to spot cheating?
I don’t think the advantage in Fairfax is quite that big. And this is an odd numbered year. As I said, a rat has A 3 to 5 point lead just for breathing.
Northam hasn’t made hay. Periello would have won this hands down.