I don’t think the advantage in Fairfax is quite that big. And this is an odd numbered year. As I said, a rat has A 3 to 5 point lead just for breathing.
Northam hasn’t made hay. Periello would have won this hands down.
It is that big in Fairfax. I just checked the election results from 2013. Fairfax County tallied 306,430 votes, which is where I live. The rest of Northern Virginia added 317,828 votes for a total of 624,258 votes cast in this part of the state.
Total votes cast was 2,241,071, which means Fairfax County had 14% of the vote (about 1 out of every 7 votes originated in just Fairfax County).
All of Northern Virginia had 28% of the vote - over 1 out of every 4 votes cast came from this part of the state.
Cuccinelli lost by about 50,000 votes statewide and lost Fairfax County by 68,000 votes. So, elections are decided in Northern Virginia.
The rule of thumb used to be, a republican candidate had to get at least 40% of the vote in Fairfax County to win statewide, but Gillespie got 40 or 41% in 2014 and still lost statewide by about 18,000 votes.
The huge deficits in Northern Virginia have to be made up in the rural parts of the state and it is very hard to do.
Trump got 80 to 85% of the vote in many rural areas of Virginia and still lost by the state by about 225,000 votes because Trump only got 23% in Fairfax County.