Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
They just adjusted the track a little south. It’s heading for the Gulf. I just got my first few cases of water, a box of candles, and a gallon of lamp oil. Already the water is flying off the shelves at Walmart here. The closer it gets, the more puckered I’m going to get, and if it stays on track, I’m telling the wife on Thursday to pull the trigger and grab that 3000 watt generator she has in stock but is spoken for. Looks like we’re stocking up on tuna, corned beef, Vienna sausages, and Beanie Weenies this week.
Actually the heat is pulled from surface water as evaporated water vapor that rises. This creates the updraft in the Hurricanes center. So after a Hurricane comes through the surface water is cooled. Winds also help evaporate and cool the water. When you are talking power, the volume of depth of heated water is important. Basically how much heated water can evaporate. So it is not just temperature, but total heat content. This is why hurricanes weaken over shallow water also.
Mags!!! So good to see you. Hope you’re well, FRiend.
We’re ready here in Orlando, I got ready when I saw Harvey. Stocked up on chocolate today. My hospital is in disaster prep stage so have been working that. Won’t know for few days just where Irma will come in so it’s a waiting game. Nerve-wracking as all get out.
Around Dallas, probably 2/3 or more of the stations have gasoline at any point in time, although the ones that I’ve seen have only been selling regular. It’s still a bit hit-or-miss, but there’s enough supply (if somewhat expensive) that the crisis seems to have passed. Dallas has consolidated to just one big shelter, closing the others (Fort Worth and several other cities also have shelters) as we never saw the kind of mass exodus that Katrina touched off.
Down in Houston, folks that didn’t flood are getting back to normal, and those that aren’t still under water have already done a lot of the demo. Of course, it is a different story down toward Corpus and over toward Beaumont/Port Arthur and points north of there.
Good to know that signs of recovery are strong in TX. That is very good to hear.
The bridge (in color) is the old train and auto bridge, which was deliberately cut away at Bahia Honda State Park. The new auto bridge can be seen in the background.
The old bridge’s surface is heavily littered with chunks of concrete, the result of rust expanding inside the structure, and explosively sending spalls of concrete all over.
The map has just changed. Cuba gets a glancing blow.
pressure down another 2 mb from last pass and HR ago
this is insane
plane about to sample NE quad
I just saw some video pictures out of Barbuda. They are already getting very high winds and some rain. A lot of vegetation was blowing by.
I’ve been wish-pray-casting a Matthew track, and that suddenly looks more likely than the euro.
Both impossible and retarded.
Canned meats? Good idea.
For water have you considered 5 gal. jugs and filling at one of the box dispensers? I keep 30 gal.s on hand even tho I have a well and a (manual hookup) gasoline generator.
3000 watts would do a refrigerator and a hot plate.
Rather than oil lamps I have LED camping lanterns and rechargeable batteries. And a few solar rechargers.
Also those LED head lamps work well for investigating things in the dark.
I feel your pain, FRiend!
The waiting game sucks ... hanging onto every storm-path update.
I’ve had to evacuate to Orlando, was difficult finding accommodations. That’s the thing about Florida, one can’t just escape inland. For example, Andrew hit both coasts.
Keep me posted on your safety, please!
Oh my...............
You say “impossible and retarded.”
“Impossible and retarded” or not, here’s a news link:
thank you
Our homeschool group is going on a fieldtrip to see the NOAA Hurricane Hunter operations and hopefully a plane later in September. My 12 year old is so excited!
The WHOLE peninsula......mercy!
If it is gonna hit catagory 4 or 5, my daughter & family are heading here to our summer place in NC
Here in Orlando as well - gas price has shot up everywhere, lines at every gas station - stores out of water - it’s nuts and it’s only Tuesday!
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