Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Just follow Joe Bastardi on Twitter ;)
Good advice....
That would probably be from the Jet Stream dropping....brings Canadian temps here in Pa. Just went through all that in Aug....we didn’t have a summer August at all this year. Heck I pulled out my winter pJ’s last week!
I talked to my sister in SC and she is even prepping for this.
And that includes medications.
That’s something people often don’t think about, but people forget that it often goes beyond just the immediate storm itself.
It’s not unlikely that transportation and shipments of virtually everything will be affected.
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 4
Location: 16.7°N 55.6°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
We’ve had the heat on this week in NY for all this lovely OCTOBER weather.
Today was GORGEOUS!!!!! Upper 70’s, sunny, nice and breezy.
I’m watching the radar even now as the line of thunderstorms along this cold front.
We essentially had 2 weeks of summer.
One week in the 80’s in July and one in Aug.
Otherwise, this has been one of the coolest and wettest summers we’ve had in a long time.
Best case scenario! Folks in the path of the storm will need to have solid plans in place by then. As rodguy911 reminded us earlier, it takes three days to evacuate the FL Keys.
Here. Intellicast radar is about the best.
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx
Click on your area and it will take you to the regional map for a closer view.
I’m not sure exactly where you are in PA but it looks like you should be seeing this come through your area in the next 24 hours or less, depending.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
I have lived in this exact part of the country all my life, and I don’t ever remember a summer like this one, a summer that wasn’t torturing heat.
Lol...ha. it’s my mind.
Here is another one.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-69.18,18.01,347
Surface wind map animation for the entire globe.
You can also zoom in to any one area for a better look.
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017
Irma’s satellite presentation remains quite impressive with a
well-defined eye and a symmetrical CDO containing very cold cloud
tops. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the current
intensity is about 120 kt. Since the hurricane will be moving
through an environment of low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level
atmosphere, and increasing upper-ocean heat content, additional
intensification is likely. The only expected impediment to
strengthening should be eyewall replacement cycles, which are
difficult to predict. The official intensity forecast is very
close to the latest model consensus, ICON. Although the consensus
of the guidance shows slight weakening in the 96- to 120-hour time
frame, Irma is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane throughout
the 5-day forecast period.
Center fixes from the aircraft indicate a westward motion of about
270/11 kt. Irma should turn toward the west-northwest tomorrow
while it is steered by the flow to the south of a mid-level ridge.
A broad trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern U.S. in
72 hours and then lift northeastward leaving a weakness in the ridge
to north of the hurricane. This should cause a slowing of the
forward speed near the end of the forecast period. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the
model consensus.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands a
dangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind,
storm surge, and rainfall impacts. Hurricane warnings are in effect
for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed
to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first
arrive in the hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.
2. Irma is also expected affect the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this
week. Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and
tropical-storm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early
Wednesday.
3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and
listen to advice given by officials.
4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct
impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
Last winter and spring were weird, too. I remember some really hot days in March.
Then it turned on us and didn’t warm up again for two months. We had better weather in March than we’ve had for most of this summer.
I don’t know.. that’s a narrow island..
Thanks!
I fished off ft Lauderdale on my boat yesterday (Sunday). I was out nine miles east of the coast and my water gauge showed sea temperature of 85.3 degrees.
Not good for the Florida coastal residents.
Doesn’t look like it’s going to quite get here...but are temps are looking to be in the 60’s for the next week. Am between Erie and Pittsburgh so the jet Stream wobbles a lot through here..never sure what we’re going to get! lolol
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