Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Thanks!
LOL! And even though I live in St Augustine, I can't see it! I really and truly hope it doesn't hit here again - we had major flooding and destruction from Matthew last October, and we're just getting back to normal now, with most people back in their homes. We had some 400 houses made unliveable.
They've made improvements to the sewer system, which will help. And the other helpful thing is that I plan to watch it for the next day or so and if it looks even slightly threatening, we're going to be the first to evacuate. Somebody's got to do it...
Seems to me that if they were all in agreement, then they'd say so. But they don't. All they say is we can't say this far ahead.
Well, duh!
I recall a weather forecast from the local TV weatherman when I lived in Cheyenne, Wyoming in the 6th grade.
His forecast was for "sunny and warm" for the next day. The next day we had 8 inches of snow fall.
That evening on TV, he said, "Sorry folks, but we got 8 inches of that sunny and warm on the ground today".
Tainted my view of weather forecasters, and currently, global warming activists, for my whole life.
Weather Underground is owned by the Weather Channel. Just another competitor they bought out.
That’s an ominous chart.
“It re-enforces my belief that global warming, climate change, whatever, is crapola too.”
You might want to read about “confirmation bias”. It might also be worth reviewing afterwards how the storm track lines up with the projections.
I’m also a CAGW skeptic in terms of how much warming will happen, but the basic science of AGW is sound and has been known for over 100 years.
They are talking about a cat 5 hitting Miami on that message board. Not good, obviously.
I have read elsewhere that the GFS model overstates the pressure levels (in the bad direction) by as much as 50 mb, so that 891 number might not be what it seems.
Good to see ya
Apparently I needed some sort of sarcasm alert.
I wasn't being serious. I was being facetious.
Chocolate, just dark chocolate.
The 1935 Key West Labor Day Hurricane was 892 mb.
The 1935 Key West Labor Day Hurricane was 892 mb.
Nobody, and I mean nobody, can predict the future or change the climate for the better. Arrogance abounds among the believers.
Thanks. So if the hurricane moves over Okeechobee while at an intense stage, then you have quick development storm surge in the Lake itself and whichever ways the wind blows a 20’ wall of water can head west or south.
The spaghetti models show it more on the course of Charlie, with the exception of it possibly coming in from the Miami area and going right up the middle class of the peninsula. Just hope it stays east and misses us.
GFS is better for track than intensity, but Irma is already at 944 mb and is entering some very warm waters. Best case for the US (and nightmare case for Hispanola) is for Irma to get close enough to that island for some disruption of the circulation. Cuba won’t be much help, the midsection of the island is pretty flat.
IOW, you are a know nothing about weather and just like to shoot your mouth off.
http://www.florida-keys-vacation.com/1935-Hurricane.html
God Speed, RodGuy911. I hope Irma misses you by far.
Weather forecasting is not a crap shoot and it’s working with a dynamic system and is constantly changing.
Learn something.
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