Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Thanks for the wide view satellite images. The image/link at the top of the thread is focused on Hurricane Irma.
Coming to your neighborhood ping.
It's all a crap shoot.
For updates: Current HMON data (will be relevant when it get here, just great info in the mean time) http://www.weathernerds.org/models/hmon01.html
Euro & Our Ensemble maps: http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL11
Weather geeks chat board, will have occasional breaking info & interesting perspective from forecasters: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50217-major-hurricane-irma/?page=97
Enjoy!
Current GFS has Irma at 132 hours as an 891 mb storm going into the very tip of South Florida and then working NNE. Worst-case scenario, lets hope the actual course shifts.
This is a Sunday landfall in FL?
The models have shifted quite a bit since this morning. Let’s hope they keep moving east.
emphasis on the word “CRAP”!!!
It’s a model over 5 days out. When it gets to under 3 days out, we will get a much better sense. This is not a Harvey situation where there were very weak steering currents and two cows farting in unison was enough to make a model shift the course 135 degrees. There will be very pronounced steering currents with this storm, it’s just a matter of when and where they come together to pull it northwards.
“On another forum they mention the Lake Okeechobee dikes as a serious worry...”
“Anyone what to explain the details on that?”
___________________
This should help clarify:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurricane
Here’s another forum that I’ve been lurking in, this thread is a seemingly endless discussion of the models as they evolve...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119059
Thats a fact. It keeps dropping. I expect a wobble south, thats normal. It might skirt Florida’s tip and hit the Gulf. Will know in a couple days.
Solidly into Cat 5 territory.
You want red, clam or alfredo with that?
amen.
IT also could look like Frances in 2004 so I hope you are right about it being more like Matthew we are in Jax an came thru that one quite well
Time to plan to get out of Dodge. The thing is, where the heck do you go? Florida is long and thin and a hurricane can cover a lot of territory.
This is merely a reflection of what various models say. The area highlighted by you seems to be what is a legal protection for anyone who thinks the South Florida Water Management District is the final authority on what will happen. They aren’t. They’re merely providing the viewer with what various hurricane models are predicting.
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