Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
It was that last-minute jog N at Andros Isle that spared FL the brunt of Matthew last Oct. Terrible flooding in the Carolina lowcountry, but if OBX bears the brunt of Cat5 winds the folks will have been long evacuated.
How you likin’ this cool morning, neighb?
Did the best I could this past weekend. Moved everything from the screened porch to inside the house. Took everything that could stink out of the frig.
Crap, forgot to put the trash can roll out under the home.
Still time to run down and back Saturday if the wife thinks of something. Since we have internet down there she might get an ARLO camera to mount on the post of the screened porch.
My beloved St. Martin... so very sad. This looks like the camera from the Sunset Bar and Grill on Maho Beach. Sniff, sniff.
Yesterday NHC showed the storm over Key West when most other models showed it hitting the middle keys. Today, those models show it going off the east coast. But NHC has it going right up the middle of peninsula.
What does NHC know that that others don't know?
To me, it looks like Irma is definitely projected to be tracking more north and east now.
No different than most elections.
they never make huge shifts at once....in case the models come back more west..which is often the case
Irma south of forecast...British Virgin islands may take a direct hit
Anyone who doesn’t stay prepped 24/7/365 through there is crazy.
The Euro for Wed. the 13th shows the storm’s center crossing the NC/SC border somewhere west of Charlotte.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm
It’s lovely! Much of the same through the week. I’m thinking a colder winter. Had a wee bit of a surprise rain cloud yesterday pm which sent the four leggers in but the lawn appreciated.
bfl
“Why does the NHC forecast show a center of storm to the WEST of almost all of the available “models”?”
They may not view many of those models as being reliable and are going with an average their more proven models I’m thinking.
Again--Don't focus on the forecast models. Pay attention to local statements.
This particular met tends to really like the Euro. I’ll be curious to see what he says later on today. We have close family in Virginia Beach, VA so we’re all paying attention (& they’re doing prep work).
Everyone has their own interpretation. They get bragging rights if theirs is spot on.
Potentially very bad for Puerto Rico.
I am in upstate SC and there has been virtually NO local discussion on TV or radio by any officials, re need to get prepared.
I am just stunned by this,as model indicates a possible direct hit to my area.
I think I was a kid waiting for the bus the last time I felt chilly in early Sept. We deserve an early winter since summer practically began in Feb this year. But point is, this is an actual real cold front that may turn Irma after all.
I was supposed to go the NE Patriots game tomorrow night, then leave from the game and drive a car down to Fort Meyer FL for an elderly couple I know.
The tickets fell through, and I think the drive did too, now.
The poor people who fall into the path of this.
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