Yesterday NHC showed the storm over Key West when most other models showed it hitting the middle keys. Today, those models show it going off the east coast. But NHC has it going right up the middle of peninsula.
What does NHC know that that others don't know?
they never make huge shifts at once....in case the models come back more west..which is often the case
Irma south of forecast...British Virgin islands may take a direct hit
“Why does the NHC forecast show a center of storm to the WEST of almost all of the available “models”?”
They may not view many of those models as being reliable and are going with an average their more proven models I’m thinking.
Everyone has their own interpretation. They get bragging rights if theirs is spot on.
That is because they are always very reluctant to publicly commit to the latest computer models until they are well established. The Weather Channel even admitted this a few years ago, saying that to give the public the latest information from models before it was much more certain would "only confuse the public."
So, they keep with the older data until it is obvious they have to release the new data.
Next, they feel that if they let a certain area off the hook (like the Florida Keys), then if they are wrong and the models turn back, they gave people too much of a sense of security and relief, and it is better to keep the public on edge (for safety sake).
AS the next post shows, the computer models are ALL trending to show the storm will most likely go further east than the earlier models.
The NHC's job is to keep people "scared" and moving, not get them over confident that the storm will actually go east of Fla. SO the NHC doesn't know anything which would indicate the storm really will stay further west than the computer models are predicting, they want to make sure the public stays focused.
In a few days, you can look back at this misrepresentation of what the data shows as propaganda. The gov't/press thinks that is their job.
In their discussion, they did not move it East as much for one set of model shifts because shifting it based on one set of runs has proven premature before this.