Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Hi NautiNurse! I am in Louisiana but my daughter attends college at the St. Thomas campus of the University of the Virgin Islands. I am one worried mom. Thanks for continuing to maintain these threads!
Yes I believe that is the case.
Although the hurricane eye appears much larger than the island.
Winds just dropped to about zero in Barbuda... in the eye...
the all important EURO model now running if it nudges east so will the track in the 5am update
UMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
I think the center of the eye stayed just offshore though
>Honestly, I don’t see how Jose can follow Irma’s track and reach any major intensity, given how much energy Irma has sucked out of the ocean with her path.
I do. It’s called the ability to account for all. Aside from the reality of this threat, islam will be defeated. Bet on it.
America is best. Period.
I'm supposed to travel from Denver to Melbourne, FL for a conference that starts next Tuesday the 12th. I think that's looking increasingly unlikely.
Looks like St. Martin is next. Someone in that area is unfortunately likely to get a direct hit as St. Barts and Anguilla are nearby as well. On the bright side though, Richard Branson is also in the path.
EURO big shift east..
the track will shift east some now in the 5am update
the 00z GFS and 00z Euro now keep the center just east of FL..goof news since the weaker side is the west side...other models have also shifted east...
of course this will change and wobble back and forth ....aka noise
Yep. Carolinas now going to get something.
Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits
At 2:00am ADT, the NOAA station at #Barbuda reported sustained winds of 108 mph with gusts to 155 mph. #Irma
https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905297751612825601
could you send me a link please.
I’ve been watching the live cam at St-Barth you posted. The storm is on top of it now and the power just got knocked out.
Well, it came back on as I typed. Don’t know if it will stay on though. They’re having a terrible night there. :-(
Many models now have the turn happening east of Florida. Not all.
Will be interesting. They would be counting on the low front that just came through to Florida hanging out for 3 or 4 days.Additionally a high pressure system in Texas now should be a factor. Will they be strong enough to turn Irma. Who knows????
Cold front still progressing south though central Louisiana. Alexandria, LA reporting northerly winds and 65 deg F temps, which indicates front has passed through.
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