Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Did The Polls Get The Handel/Ossoff Race Wrong?
Hotair ^ | 06/21/2017 | AllahPundit

Posted on 06/21/2017 2:15:52 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Say, wasn’t Ossoff supposed to win this race sort of handily? Two different polls taken over the past month had him leading by seven(!) points. Between May 10th and June 15th, he led in every poll tracked by RCP except one — and that one was tied. The polls blew it again!

Well … not exactly. Per Sean Trende, note the trend below over the race’s final days, as Handel finally achieved liftoff:

On June 12th Ossoff led comfortably, 49.8 to 45. One week later it was Handel 49.0 to Ossoff’s 48.8. She was actually a verrrrry slight favorite by the time polls opened yesterday morning. She ended up winning by nearly four points, not 0.2, but combine the margin of error with the really obvious late break towards the Republican candidate and there’s nothing all that surprising about last night’s result. Data nerds are laughing at journalists on social media today, in fact, for seeming perplexed that a toss-up race in a red district might have ended up tilting towards the GOP nominee by a number in line with the average poll’s MOE.

Like, you looked at this chart and thought "there's no way Handel wins" -and I should trust you to report a school board meeting accurately? pic.twitter.com/xiEVcnrCct

— Micah Cohen (@micahcohen) June 21, 2017

Three notes about the final numbers. For the second time in eight months, the little-known Republican pollster Trafalgar Group almost nailed a tight race in which the conventional wisdom was pointing the other way. You may remember Trafalgar from the closing days of the presidential election in November, when they boldly predicted narrow Trump victories in Michigan and Pennsylvania — unthinkable upsets at the time. Their final poll of this race had Handel winning by two, making them the only pollster to have her on top since early May. They’re building quite a reputation for final-week surveys with eerily accurate results.

Was the late break towards Handel a straightforward matter of late-deciders in a Republican district coming home to the party or was there something more to it? Last night I kept thinking of what a local GOP chairman told WaPo a few days ago: “I think the [Scalise] shooting is going to win this election for us.” At least one outside group ran an ad (denounced by both Ossoff and Handel) framing the race as a referendum on whether the left’s worst elements would be rewarded after the assassination attempt in Virginia with an Ossoff victory. Handel’s numbers in the chart above began climbing before the shooting, with her average jumping 0.8 points between June 12th and June 13th, but they really took off after the violence on the 14th. She gained nearly three points over the final week of the race. Outraged at the attempted murder of Scalise, Republicans in the Sixth District may have turned out in higher numbers than expected to send a message to Democrats.

Last point, via Nate Silver: Did Democrats place too many of their eggs in this basket?

By the way, Democrats were dumb not to put more resources into South Carolina 5, which elected a Dem to the House as recently as 2008.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 21, 2017

Hindsight is 20/20 and South Carolina’s Fifth District is ruby red, making it a much smaller target — in theory — for Dems than the Georgia special election was. Shockingly, though, the South Carolina outcome ended up tighter than the Handel/Ossoff race did. Republican Ralph Norman won by a mere 3.2 points over Democrat Archie Parnell in a district that’s 19 points more Republican demographically than America as a whole. The counterpoint to Silver is that Parnell made it as close as it was only because Democrats didn’t aggressively compete there: Local Republican voters may have assumed Norman would win and stayed home while Democrats turned out en masse, producing a surprisingly narrow Republican victory. If Democrats had gone all-in to promote the race, those lazy GOP voters would have behaved differently. Even so, $23 million was a lot of cheddar to sprinkle on a single House race in Georgia. How would Parnell have done if, say, 20 percent of Ossoff’s haul had been directed his way instead? Fortunately we’ll never know.



TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Georgia
KEYWORDS: handel; ossoff; polls
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-63 next last
To: SeekAndFind

Winning is highly overrated; we prefer to have moral victories.

41 posted on 06/21/2017 3:07:13 PM PDT by JPG (Covfefe Rules!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The one poll that counted got it correct.


42 posted on 06/21/2017 3:12:20 PM PDT by deport
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: gov_bean_ counter

Better question... Are pollsters trying to gage public opinion or drive it?

You nailed it. They threw everything they could at this one but came up short. They will pull off a few every now and then.


43 posted on 06/21/2017 3:15:59 PM PDT by boycott
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Between May 10th and June 15th, he led in every poll tracked by RCP except one — and that one was tied.

If polls had anything to do with reality - rather than being scams to help Democrats - we'd be calling Hillary Ms President...

44 posted on 06/21/2017 3:20:12 PM PDT by GOPJ (James Hodgkinson a Bernie Sanders true believer)kicks off Resistance Summer by shooting Republicans)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I’m going with the nonstop harassment of the voters got Ossoff’s numbers to collapse.

$31 million buys you every tv commercial and bus load after bus load of snowflake ‘volunteers’ constantly pounding on your door so that you haven’t had an uninterrupted meal with your family in weeks.

Even liberals get aggravated enough to vote against ferret face.


45 posted on 06/21/2017 3:26:00 PM PDT by Snickering Hound
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

What explains Ossoff’s performance in early voting?

I’m inclined to think that 6th Republicans didn’t bother with the first race, not realizing that Ossoff would come close to 50%. The polling was still off.


46 posted on 06/21/2017 3:29:26 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The lib toads in the “media” have had a number of elections where their #fakepoll numbers came back to bite them on the ass. Using poll numbers to try to influence the voters is really a dumbass idea. You don’t know how the voters are going to react to them.


47 posted on 06/21/2017 3:32:35 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (The Swamp Strikes Back!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CincyRichieRich

People make mistakes. When they are consistent in their mistakes something else is in play. How often have they predicted a Republican victory and been wrong? They do this because a part of the voter population will vote with whoever is leading. Maybe the Russians interfered. Democrats need to energize their deceased and illegal alien base. Oh, Nancy - embrace the suck.


48 posted on 06/21/2017 3:34:28 PM PDT by Vehmgericht
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

They were purposely skewed in hopes the Republicans would be discouraged and wouldn’t show up.


49 posted on 06/21/2017 3:38:20 PM PDT by Maudeen (No one on this earth is too far gone for Jesus.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

One thing is for certain, the dem money people are not going to throw this much money at many mid-term races.


50 posted on 06/21/2017 3:38:35 PM PDT by umgud
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: GOPJ

I am annoyed in general at how hard candidates get in my face about who I should vote for, I have been really fed up in recent years with the ads everywhere.


51 posted on 06/21/2017 3:39:08 PM PDT by Morpheus2009
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Just like the misconstrued the Hillary vs. Trump polls.


52 posted on 06/21/2017 3:42:27 PM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Did she gain late votes, or did the polsters get more honest as the election approached?


53 posted on 06/21/2017 3:45:40 PM PDT by djpg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Never pay attention to Real Clear Politics;they use polls that are proven fakes like NBC and CNN.


54 posted on 06/21/2017 4:23:23 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
The polls weren't wrong, they just failed to manipulate enough people.

-PJ

55 posted on 06/21/2017 4:26:45 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (The 1st Amendment gives the People the right to a free press, not CNN the right to the 1st question.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maudeen

Proving they learned nothing from the 2016 Election. They tried then and failed. What made them think it would work in Georgia?


56 posted on 06/21/2017 4:29:32 PM PDT by MayflowerMadam ("Negative people make healthy people sick." - Roger Ailes)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Did The Polls Get The Handel/Ossoff Race Wrong?

Who cares?
Moving right along...

57 posted on 06/21/2017 5:03:59 PM PDT by publius911 (Less Tweets More Golf! it works!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: gov_bean_ counter
Better question... Are pollsters trying to gage public opinion or drive it?

Your question is much more accurate. In the early polls they push their agenda by pointing to these wild numbers of their guy winning by huge margins. This pushes the public, and dispirits their opposition. As you get closer to election day they start pushing the numbers closer so they won't look so obviously wrong when the only poll that matters, the election itself occurs. Nobody but wonks remember the early polls they were trying to push public opinion with. Is is a scam. We've seen it countless times. If you watch for it, it is obvious what they are doing.

58 posted on 06/21/2017 8:36:58 PM PDT by zeugma (The Brownshirts have taken over American Universities.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger
I like to tell them what they want to hear

How thoughtful of you not to harsh their mellow.

Rock-ribbed conservatives have no appreciation for how hard it is to be a snowflake.

59 posted on 06/21/2017 8:56:05 PM PDT by Natty Bumppo@frontier.net (We are the dangerous ones, who stand between all we love and a more dangerous world.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I have read that polling organizations are having more and more trouble getting voters to talk to them. Thanks to caller ID, telemarketers and scammers, many people just don’t answer the call if they don’t recognize the number. I know I do that. Then I add the number to my call block list.


60 posted on 06/22/2017 5:11:05 AM PDT by ops33 (SMSgt, USAF, Retired)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-63 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson