Posted on 05/11/2017 8:55:19 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
It seems that many residents of the West Coast and the Northeast are leaving those regions behind.
In March, for example, the Sacramento Bee reported that California “exports its poor to Texas ... while wealthier people move in.” Former Californians report that a lackluster job market, a high cost of living, and high taxes are pushing them out.
This week, Chicago Magazine reported on Chicago's highly publicized diaspora. One interviewee reported the crime, high cost of living, and taxes drove him out of Illinois and across the state line to northern Indiana. “I couldn’t have this size house in Illinois,” he said.
Last week, Bloomberg reported that state-to-state mobility is strong with increasing numbers of workers moving to “rapidly growing regions where employment is plentiful.”
The United States has long been notable for the frequency with which its residents move around. This isn't always without social and psychic costs to those who move, and their communities.
But, the ease with which workers and families can pick up and move across state lines provides many with the option of moving to a totally new geographic and legal environment where the burdens of taxes and the cost of living may vary greatly. Best of all, unlike Europe, there is no language barrier that comes with moving across the continent to find a new job.
If one can take advantage of the amenities of other states with relative ease, then residents are more likely to leave behind their current situation for what they perceive to be better digs.
Thus, according to the 2015 American Community Survey numbers released late last year — the most recent number available — 7.5 million Americans lived in another state just one year earlier — and thus decided that the time had come to move from their home states.
But, of course, those who moved were not evenly distributed, and there are some big differences by region.
When we look at the net number of residents moving in from other states, we find that the destination for most of these 7.5 million migrants was states in the South and in the West — excluding California:
The map, however, fails to account for just how large was the migration out of certain states, specifically, New York, California, Illinois, and New Jersey. When we ignore foreign migrants and look at just state-to-state flows, we find that more than 191,000 people left New York while more than 129,000 people left California. The top destinations for migrants were Florida, Texas, and North Carolina1:
These are net numbers, meaning that even when we count new arrivals from other states, these states lost residents.
One objection we might raise here is the fact that the two states fueling the most out-migration have very large populations. How big is the population loss, really, if we look at it in terms of percentages?
It turns out that in many places the loss, relatively speaking, is still quite large:
Even when taking into account population loss proportional to the overall population, Illinois (-1 percent), New York (-0.9 percent), and New Jersey (-0.9 percent) still top the list, with Alaska (-0.8) and Connecticut (-0.7) not far behind. By this measure, California — which was second-worst in the nation in terms of raw numbers — is only the fourteenth biggest loser in terms of the percentage of its population that moved away.
The states with the biggest proportional gains were Delaware (+1.4 percent), North Dakota (+1.4 percent), Nevada (+1.2 percent), Idaho (+0.1 percent), and Arizona (+0.1 percent).
Where did all those Californians go?
According to the survey, 643,000 people living outside California in the US had lived in California one year earlier. In Colorado — the state with the eighth-largest proportional increase, and a popular destination for Californians — 12 percent of the 227,000 people who moved to Colorado during the survey period were from California alone. That is, 29,000 people moved from California to Colorado. The next biggest source of migrants to Colorado was Texas which supplied 11 percent of all new arrivals.
Things look different on the east coast where more new arrivals are from New York.
Although Florida was among the states with top net population growth, a lot of people also moved away from the state during 2015. Many of them moved to North Carolina.
But why are people leaving states like California, New York, and Illinois in such large numbers? Put another way: why are so few choosing to move there?
It could be any number of reasons from taxes to climate and to employment.
But, it's likely no coincidence that according to the BEA, the most expensive states to live in are Hawaii, New York, New Jersey, and California. All of those states experienced a net loss of residents to other states.
When we employ a basic scatter plot of state-to-state migration with the "Regional Price Parity" measure of the cost of living, we find that above an index of 105, only New Hampshire experienced a rise in new residents from other states:
Nor is it likely a coincidence that, using the Tax Foundation's measure of tax burden, California, New York, and New Jersey are found among the states with the largest tax burden, and the largest population loss to other states. Eight of the ten states with the highest tax burdens experienced population loss to other states.
On the other hand, states like California, New York, and Illinois can seek comfort in the fact that their populations aren't really declining in absolute terms thanks to migration from foreign countries. California residents may be fleeing to other states, but those former residents are being replaced by new residents from abroad.
Can this be sustainable over time? It depends on the nature of those moving away and those moving in. If those leaving California and New York are highly productive workers seeking a tax break and lower cost of living, then this could lead to a net drain of wealth-producing people. On the other hand, if those moving to new states are primarily retirees or low productivity workers, then the states they're leaving may do just fine with new immigrants who may be able to easily replace those who are leaving.
I find it interesting that 9 out of 10 states that I-70 goes through (with Colorado being the exception) were High Outbound.
Lake locusts that seek new Green Pastures after they ravished the last.
Colorado potheads invasion?
NY Governor Andy Cuomo is to the Left of Bernie Sanders. He is bleeding middle class taxpayers dry to pay for his socialist welfare programs. When I retire, I’m leaving too. However, I will support conservatives in the state I move too, unlike most other NY’rs who take their public pension at 50 or 55 and then bring their wants and needs and entitlement mentality to other states and demand bigger government.
You’re now seeing an interesting trend where formerly Democratic states in the Northeast and Midwest are turning Republican. Even before Trump won unexpectedly in states like Michigan Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, those states have become increasingly “red” in recent years.
Californians arent people, they are a disease.
Right on... in my area of PA when the New Yorkers come, they want it to be another New York.
blue people want what red people have but are unwilling to give up their very bad terrible blue ways....
me and the missus are the heck out of NYS as soon as we retire. A beautiful state ruined by abominable government and taxes.
yep most NOT ALL are responsible for screwing up their state so badly they move to a nice state and screw it up. Colorado is an excellent example.
I think we’re going to have to euthanize the Democrats to have any hope of saving the republic; they seem impervious to the concept of cause and effect. New bumper sticker campaign: “Save America—Euthanize Democrats!”
How true! A substantial number (hopefully not the majority) merely leave the nest they have bankrupted and move to greener pastures to demand their prior delusional environs without any thought to the fact that their cost of living will skyrocket if their demands are met (thus ruining their new environs!)
We must await the 2020 Census results to reapportion!
I lived in Washington State in the late 80's..., a wonderful environment! Then came skyrocketing real estate prices due to Californians flocking into the State having sold their bungeloes for MEGABUCKS and inflating the State of Washington. That was the least of it..., the laid back, polite atmosphere in the State was changing with rude obnoxious new residents! Billboards appeared (for real) calling for an end to the CALIFORNICATION of Washington State! Look at where Eastern Washington is today.....
Exactly. For instance CO use to be a fairly solid GOP hold; but not anymore with liberals infesting Bolder and Denver.
We have a boat in the Ventura Harbor and I spend about half my time there. A few years ago we went to Oklahoma and Arkansas to look at places to move. Found Grove Ok and their huge lake and boats galore to be almost okay. Then I went in the winter. The whole town was shut down. Then it snowed. Changed my mind real fast. Lol. We’re still here.
We don’t want them. Kalifornians are some of the most ill bred, ignorant dweebs on the planet and don’t realize that they turn their new homes into the same dump they just left.
Didn’t read the thread but my guess is that LA, NYC and Chicago are losing. The rest of the state in all three cases are doing about average.
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