Emergency: California’s Oroville Dam Spillway Near Failure, Evacuations Ordered

Breitbart ^ | Feb 12, 2017 | Joel B. Pollak1

[janetjanet998]

The California Department of Water Resources issued a sudden evacuation order shortly before 5 p.m. Sunday for residents near the Oroville Dam in northern California, warning that the dam’s emergency spillway would fail in the next 60 minutes.

The Oroville Dam is the highest in the nation.

[EarthResearcher333]

More Design, Construction, Engineering Failure information:

The "best evidence" failure initiation of the Main Spillway had a substructure subsidence component. Turns out, the original test drilling was "sparse" and the location of where the "blow out" occurred & was missed (see green circle in main spillway - red circles are noted drill locations). Therefore, without "drill data" on the rock at that location, they may have been unaware of the lesser quality substructure conditions. Erosion/scouring under this "missed" location is believed to be why the concrete slab sunk. Then cavitation jackhammering of the concrete seam could occur from a turbulence void.

Another significant point: Engineers must have known of the geology at the deep crevasse/gash/hole erosion (result) as a test drill hole was done dead center to this location. Photos now reveal that the bottom of the gash is 36ft deep - putting the bottom (at the bottom water pooling) at 797ft.

So either the engineers were inexperienced with fractured rock (rotten rock) erosion, or the test drill result was not really inspected, or that someone didn't care, or ?. In any case, the result is a highly inaccurate assumption of the expected Emergency Spillway operation with the high rated curve tables of many hundreds of thousands of CFS performance - when this damage was done with only 12,000cfs in a short while.

The Dam design/construction archives actually state that vegetation (trees/shrubs) were ok in the ES spillway hillside area as they stated it would operate "infrequently". I would say they had no idea of what severe erosion would occur. Astounding.

P.S. The huge erosion and gashing cuts into the soil & fractured rock is the larger green circles. Most of this area was not test drilled. This again points to their belief in the "infrequent" scenario + the lack of knowledge of the fractured rock (or "rotten rock" - to hydraulic erosion/scouring & turbulence) swift decomposition from even small overtopping conditions.

I firmly agree with Scott Cahill's assessment (renowned dam expert) on the significant failure risk issues of the Emergency Spillway. He stated that he was not 100% sure of a non-failure to this dam structure (his words).

Good engineering is when all failure conditions are thoroughly researched, or well known from historical events, and thus designed with a safety factor.

With all of this, It is no surprise that heavy armoring of the downstream ES is underway. The revealed "fractured rock" is at levels below the main spillway - and it's close to the Emergency Spillway. Back erosion is the enemy.

[EarthResearcher333]

>>Whaddyathink in light of the next storm barreling down on Oroville?<<

What are the latest projections?

[LucyT]

# 1,474 .

Young man fined for posting photo.

.

[janetjanet998]

3-10 inches

likely 3 total near the dam and 10 higher up....

good news is a pattern change after this

there will be a couple moderate systems but they will be cooler and less moisture

the wet SW flow seems to get chocked off for the next 10 days after weds

[daisy12]

Voluntary evacuations for the town of Maxwell. The next storm hasn’t even started.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/02/18/latest-voluntary-evacuations-asked-in-california-town.html

“Northwest of Sacramento, the Colusa County Sheriff’s Office called for voluntary evacuations in Maxwell because of reports that rising water levels were threatening homes Saturday morning.”

[EarthResearcher333]

The scenario that is most concerning is if persistent warm heavy rains come into high elevations with a deep snowpack. This is the combination that caused a 300 mile long by 20 mile wide lake in the valley to occur in 1861. It lasted for 6 months.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/
==subtitle excerpt:
A 43-day storm that began in December 1861 put central and southern California underwater for up to six months, and it could happen again

---

http://littlepebble.org/2017/02/18/large-usa-dam-failure-risk-emergency-evacuations/

=== excerpt:
The Central Valley of California may be facing a crisis of flooding of such massive proportions that some are concerned of the formation of an “inland lake”. In the 1860’s, this same region experienced the formation of an “inland lake” that was devastating***. It was 300 miles long and as wide as the Sierra Nevada mountain foothills to the coastal foothills. If a repeat of this massive “inland lake flood” were to occur today, millions of people will be affected. In contrast, the 1861 “Megaflood” took thousands of human lives, drowned an estimated 800,000 cattle, and bankrupted the state of California.

---

[Ray76]

New video from Alan Kuentz.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JB8ssAI6lF8

[janetjanet998]

yes but now much of that water and runoff can be stored then released over time....

[maggief]

[null and void]

Obviously the young man didn't realized just how dangerous the truth is to the powers that be in California.

;

At no point in history has any government ever wanted its people to be defenseless for any good reason ~ nully's son

The biggest killer of mankind

Nut-job Conspiracy Theory Ping!

To get onto The Nut-job Conspiracy Theory Ping List you must threaten to report me to the Mods if I don't add you to the list...

Tinfoil hat styles

[SaveFerris]

One Pork Pie and one Hard Hat please.

[Repeal The 17th]

I guess the time will come, after the current situation has passed, for
“Monday morning quarter-backing” all of the decisions over the last 50 years,
but at the present time the focus is on ... “yeah, OK, so what do we do now?”
It seems like the plan is:
1- armor-up the emergency spillway as best as they possibly can;
2- drain as much water as they possibly can through the main spillway before it is no longer usable;
3- shut off the main spillway and get the hydro-electric discharge running;
4- evaluate and repair the main spillway.
What a mess.
Whoever is in the concrete business in the area is making a ton of bucks.

[editor-surveyor]

.
The spillways would be no issue at all if proper management of outflows had prevailed.

Practically no out-flow planning at all was done. It is as if they were pretending that we were still in a drought, in spite of heavy precipitation and massive snow pack.

California weather is characterized by a warm period that tends to occur near the end of January, and has the potential to bring rapid snow melt.

That was ignored completely, and the reservoir was maintained in a nearly full condition. Foolish beyond belief.

Also, no repair/maintenance of long standing damage to the main spillway, and the portion of the emergency weir nearest to the spillway.

This looks like a standard Jerry Brown planned crisis.
.

[null and void]

we could replace the governor and legislature with squirrels and they’d do a better job.

ABSOLUTELY!!!

While liberals are utterly incapable of foreseeing even the most obvious consequences of their actions, squirrels store nuts, they are capable of planning for the future.

[editor-surveyor]

.
Vernalis is frequently flooded in normal years, to the point that the highway is blocked.

[mad_as_he$$]

I have seen similar rock all over gold country in both Kalifornia and Nevada. I always collect samples for testing for gold. It breaks easily with a hammer and I grind it in old kitchen blenders.

[Repeal The 17th]

One should never underestimate the value of grout.

[meyer]

Whoever is in the concrete business in the area is making a ton of bucks.

If they're selling concrete to California, I hope that they're getting paid up front!

[submarinerswife]

Autocorrect screws with me all the time.. I feel for you.

[janetjanet998]

model data is hinting that the very intense band of rain may stall for awhile
if that occurs that may really ramp totals up wherever that happens...

also no way those trees around the spillway will survive..the soil is soaked and this

OROVILLE,
AND MARYSVILLE/YUBA CITY
318 PM PST SUN FEB 19 2017

..WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM PST TUESDAY.
THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, THEN PEAK
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...WINDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH. WINDS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GUSTING
50 TO 65 MPH.