3-10 inches
likely 3 total near the dam and 10 higher up....
good news is a pattern change after this
there will be a couple moderate systems but they will be cooler and less moisture
the wet SW flow seems to get chocked off for the next 10 days after weds
The scenario that is most concerning is if persistent warm heavy rains come into high elevations with a deep snowpack. This is the combination that caused a 300 mile long by 20 mile wide lake in the valley to occur in 1861. It lasted for 6 months.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/
==subtitle excerpt:
A 43-day storm that began in December 1861 put central and southern California underwater for up to six months, and it could happen again
http://littlepebble.org/2017/02/18/large-usa-dam-failure-risk-emergency-evacuations/
=== excerpt:
The Central Valley of California may be facing a crisis of flooding of such massive proportions that some are concerned of the formation of an “inland lake”. In the 1860’s, this same region experienced the formation of an “inland lake” that was devastating***. It was 300 miles long and as wide as the Sierra Nevada mountain foothills to the coastal foothills. If a repeat of this massive “inland lake flood” were to occur today, millions of people will be affected. In contrast, the 1861 “Megaflood” took thousands of human lives, drowned an estimated 800,000 cattle, and bankrupted the state of California.