Posted on 11/06/2016 3:16:07 PM PST by Simon Foxx
Political statistician Nate Silver officially projected that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the highly influential swing state of Florida, according to an analysis published Sunday.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
He still shows a 35% chance for a Trump win, overall.
His model can’t handle the model breaker, and it doesn’t properly adjust for a 10 point redistribution of the total vote toward Hillary.
Fingers crossed!
Trump was always winning Florida, Ohio and North Carolina
What “10 point redistribution of the total vote toward Hillary”?
Trump wins Florida on enthusiasm but Natie thinks the enthusiasm stops at the Florida border - yeah right Natie!
“Political statistician Nate Silver”
You mean crystal ball guesser. he was wrong for each of the midterms right after his lucky 2012 guess for obamatard. I’d rather look at the Trump internal polls than listen to this clown.
Ignore this. Get out and vote like yours is the deciding vote.
Now, I’m worried!
If he also takes VA, it’s over.
Interesting. The RCP No-Tossup Trump EV count + FL’s EVs = 270.
Nate is basically a Bayes-theorem practitioner, which is all about probability and nothing about certainty.
Seeing the Florida race up close, I agree.
People I thought would be Clinton voters for sure are either voting for Trump or not voting for President at all. Meanwhile, nearly everyone I know is all aboard the Trump train.
Lines in Hillsborough county (battleground, Tampa area) for early voting were out the door today all over the County. Trump voters are enthusiastic and we are getting out to vote in Florida.
I think it comes down to FLA. This looks a lot like 2000
Great news. With all the hyperbole being tossed around about this or that state being a “must-win”, Florida really is the foundation for any successful campaign.
He’s down 6 in the EC in my opinion he needs PA, MI, NV, or CO. Someone please help
Careful with these ‘early’ calls. Dick Morris also has made his prediction.
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They did in 2012 and nearly all of them were wrong.
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Nate is trying hard not to win the Dick Morris Award for the 2016 election.
So will they now say that Florida doesn’t matter anymore like they did with Ohio????
He is still one state short in the Silver model (or two small ones if they are NV and NH).
Not sure where that one extra state comes from. I’m hoping it is Colorado.
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