Posted on 10/12/2016 5:44:56 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
Donald Trump has lost his lead in the Dornsife La Times. He is now down .4% after a big fall.
What is the cause? “Let’s go to the video tape!” as a New York area sports reporter used to say.
This is day four of Dornsife’s seven day roiling poll and was to be expected. The Trump tape took effect yesterday and will be WORSE tomorrow. When the results of the second debate and the new email drops take hold tomorrow and Friday there should be an improvement.
There may also be some "Bradley effect" here as well. The "Wilder Factor" is a phenomena in polling where people will tell pollsters something other than what they really think because they are embarrassed to say the truth even to a complete stranger.
Some years ago in the Tom Bradley case he was winning in pre-election polls in the California governor’s race but lost. It turned out that people SAID they would vote for him indicating that Bradley being Black made no difference; but it did.
So it is possible that some voters, especially women, told Dornsife they were against Trump because they think that is how they are supposed to think.
The Bradley effect was also seen in every ballot question on the issue of “Gay Marriage.” Before the actual vote, there were very few polls that that showed “Gay Marriage” had no chance of passing. In fact some – not many- but some showed a within the margin of error tie between Yes or No. Nevertheless, with one exception, not a single one prevailed.
“In the 1989 race for Mayor of New York, a poll conducted just over a week before the election showed black candidate David Dinkins holding an 18-point lead over white candidate Rudy Giuliani. [Dinkins was running to be the first Black mayor of New York City]. Four days before the election, a new poll showed that lead to have shrunk, but still standing at 14 points. On the day of the election, Dinkins prevailed by only two points.”
Don’t panic over this slippage because it has a definite identifiable cause.
http://cesrusc.org/election/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect
We can’t control people. If they elect Hillary, it’s because they wanted to.
Meanwhile, fight. And pray. Trump is a closer, Hillary isn’t a closer.
Bombs Away.
Last evening on the Five on Fox (Yes, I turned it on to see if there was any Trump defenders and then turned it off) and perino, who does not like Trump, said people do not like to hear anyone use the word “lie” about another person.
I take issue with her... for way too long the word ‘lie’ has been replaced with softer and non-damaging words.. it’s ridiculous for anyone to soften hillary clinton .. the clintons are responsible for the worst corruption in the history of our country. And hillary stands there in the debates and in her rallies or interviews, and everything she says are lies. it rolls out her mouth effortlessly and too many believe her .. she knows how to lie... she paints a picture she is pure and the rest of us are deplorably under her status in the world of importance.
It’s not mischaracterizing, it’s not misrepresenting, it’s not misstating... hillary is a liar and she is deceiving those who do not know her past history. Use the word!!! it fits hillary!!
Those who have a microphone and camera, do not know what it’s like out here ... they must not have been affected by the corruption in Washington.. so it’s their view that hillary is okay.. God help us!!!!!!!! and deliver us from her and those who defend her and help her do this to all of us.
This poll lags a few days, so it may even look worse before it gets better.
I stopped watching Perino a long time ago.
Me too.
Even with a Trump win it’s not like everything will turn up roses on Nov 9.
This country went down an irreversible path once Obamacare became law. There’s only two possibilities now: we become permanently socialist or a revolution occurs creating a new country.
Obamacare isn’t going anywhere despite Trump’s promises. If he wins what will happen (at “best”) will be a technical “repeal” of the old law but just replacing it with a new one that will be just as socialist, save a few token tweaks to placate the dullards on both sides of the political spectrum.
A Trump win will only slow the timeline of the above two possibilities. So, I’m voting for (and hoping for) a Trump win because, like you, I’d rather depart this mortal coil before either possibility occurs. Because one will.
It’s only a matter of time. If I had children I may not be as willing to throw in the towel, but I don’t so, there it is. Ce la vis
Interesting to note that Truman failed miserably in every aspect of his life until a political boss made him a politician : )
I'd think Trump has a good chance of being back in front by early next week.
It comes and goes. Some days I am hopeful. Some days not so much. I have pleaded with my wife to stop watching FNC. She’s finally seen how biased even they are now.
I’m going to go see Megadeth and Metal Church tonight. That will help.
I !ook for this to be short term.
“The Bradley Effect is an urban legend. The only time it happened was when Bradley was running.” This is the line the left uses. The pre-balloting polls on gay marriage destroy your empty argument.
Yeah, I know... I had not watched any news or talk programs because I did not want to hear them run down my choice...
The debate went well for Trump and I thought it might be safe to catch the Five.. there is at least one who will usually defend Trump.. but after being off it for days.. just hearing them talk gave me the depress.. and perino more than almost anyone else.
Perino is the one on the panel who I call the “proper librarian”.. when she talks, even juan usually shuts up and does not interrupt. They show that perino is the leader there, and for some reason, they elevate her.. when she wants to talk, they give her the floor. She uses that position and now it’s to tell everyone in the audience that Trump is not her choice and should not be your choice either. She knows how to word things to be “polite” .. but I consider her the elite in-crowd and I don’t like her or her position. Her own recent show is said to be boring.. and that’s what she is in her librarian role.. boring.. and wrong on her selection.. that feminist side of her is her undoing.. it’s every woman’s undoing.
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