If Trump is +17 in Luzerne County and Luzerne County is a bellwether - look out!
Posted on 09/24/2016 6:56:34 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
On the eve of the first presidential debate, a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows a narrow gap between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump amid rising support for Trump within his own party....
In a four-way matchup, Clinton leads by 2 points, at 40 percent to Trump's 38 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson dropped to 8 percent — down from 14 percent a week ago — and Green Party nominee Jill Stein went from 5 to 3 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at mcall.com ...
If Trump is +17 in Luzerne County and Luzerne County is a bellwether - look out!
Thing is, Trump isn’t exactly a Republican. By that I mean, he is not another Romney, McCain, or Bush for that matter.
It saddens me to add Bush to that list. I was such an admirer of the Bush family at one time.
PA has a GOP statehouse and two GOP senators.
Party ID doesn’t tell you everything.
I think Muhlenberg College did it with the polling outfit “Morning Call”. I have heard of them. :)
As long as the added support comes at the expense of Johnson and Hillary...
Independents generally break for the challenger. Hillary is considered the incumbent in this race. I would have expected way more independents especially in PA... whoa.....
amen.
*\o/*
My Inner Cheerleader LOVES that! :)
Hillary has no shot at PA. What folks not from here don’t get is just how well Trump’s message resonates with the blue collar rust belt workers.
His anti nafta and free trade messages play so good here that the Democratic Senate candidate has adopted them, running ads attacking the sitting republican for voted she claimed help ship jobs out of the country.
Hillary will not carry any of the rust belt beyond MN and IL.
Hillary has ZERO innate or organic support. Obama hemoraged 300k votes in PA between 8 and 12, scoring Just shy of 3.3M in 8 and just shy of 3.0M in 12. Republicans, with 2 dogs who had no enthusiasm in either election here 2.65M in 8 and 2.68M in 12. So R’s here can basically run anyone and get ~2.7M votes. Hillary does not have anywhere near the support that Barry had and has absolutely zero enthusiasm. I don’t think she will be able to get 2.5 M voted on Election Day in PA... Meanwhile Trump has more support than I have seen any R candidate have in all the time AI have been in this state... It is through the roof. And yes I was here when Bush I took it in 88. I fully expect 3M or more votes for Trump and Hillay has no prayer of getting anything near that.
I would love to believe Trump has a better than 50/50 shot at PA. But given the history of major liberal cities in the state holding back votes until all other precincts have reported, I am not hopeful.
I’m hesitant of this poll because it’s a small sample. I’m a former PA resident who voted for GWB there in 2004 (first election I was of age). GWB came close to winning in PA in 2004. I think it was like 50% Kerry 49% Bush or something like that. Anyways, PA is very hard to win for Republicans. Haven’t lived there since 2006, so I have less feeling for the current climate there.
Monday night folks....and Trump delivers the Coup de grace.
Are you talking about the Luzerne County poll done just barely two weeks ago?
http://wnep.com/2016/09/15/poll-trump-leading-in-luzerne-county/
On 9/15, WNEP-TV reports Trump is up in Luzerne by 15 points: 52 to 37. Trump is over 50%!
PA poll ping.
She’s Got Cookie Monster Eyes (with thanks to Kim Carnes)
Her hair is just fools gold
Her lips frighten guys
Her heart is always cold
She’s got Cookie Monster eyes
She’ll turn her cops loose on you
She won’t have to think twice
She’s gray as New York snow
She’s got Cookie Monster eyes
She’ll alarm you
IRS harm you
All the better to disarm you
She’s precocious, and she knows just
What it takes to make her fans blush
She got psycho ex-wife standoff sighs
She’s got Cookie Monster eyes
She’ll let Bill take girls home
It whets her appetite
But she wants her own throne
She’s got Cookie Monster eyes
She’ll take a tumble or two
Eyes roll like they were dice
Until she comes out blue
She’s got Cookie Monster eyes
They’ll expose her, but she snows you
Off your feet with the crumbs she throws you
She’s ferocious, and she knows just
What it takes to make her fans blush
Americans think she’s a spy
She’s got Cookie Monster eyes
another gem if you’re talking battleground counties:
from earlier this month, September 7. Northampton county, where Bethlehem PA is...a bellwether county. Trump is up by 8.
If it holds up, Hillary will be washed away in the statewide vote.
Her bottom line number is 37%. That tracks with her national average of being in the high 30s.
In Arkansas, she is polling in the high 20s.
Luzerne and Northampton mirror the statewide vote to the last digit.
Trump doing well there bodes for a win on November 8.
“Plus they only polled 10% independents, which is insane imo. I know PA doesn’t have a humongous indie vote like some other states, but 10 is clearly too low.”
I agree, that does not sound right. IMHO they did not weigh the data correctly. Something is out of kilter.
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