Posted on 09/17/2016 10:14:32 PM PDT by CaptainK
WASHINGTON — Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Republican Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.
The survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, shows Clinton leading the presidential race here with support from 47 percent of likely voters who say they intend to vote for her or are leaning that way. Trump is at 38 percent, while 11 percent say they'd pick neither of the major-party choices, and 4 percent are not sure.
Clinton's lead narrows slightly to 8 percent when third-party candidates are included, with 40 percent for her, 32 percent for Trump, 14 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and 5 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
(Excerpt) Read more at mcall.com ...
YUGE leads in some states.
I dont trust PA nor do I trust NJ.
just hoping she’ll have to invest time and money there.
He’s got Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and the election. maybe 3 of 4 electorals from Maine
Just win OH, CO, and NV (or NH), and PA becomes unnecessary. Heck, I think MI or WI is more doable than PA.
Hahahaha...
This poll shows only 71% Rs voting for Trump. It appears to look heavy on Philly...someone can take a look.
It also shows Hell-ary has 41% male vote and Trump at 41%; 18% not sure. LoL.
And Hellary lead Indies by 9%, Hell 42% to Trump 33%.
Nationally, Indies support Trump around +21%.
ROFL!!!!!
There is a simple answer to your question,...another faked poll....
Overall, women are heavily for Hillary, the men are split exactly evenly. Whites are split exactly evenly, non whites are 68% to 17% for Hillary. It's about what I would expect and don't think it will change much.
It's the welfare class in Phila and Pittsburgh that will win the state for her. If there's anything that will get them off the sofa and semi sober for a few hours it's the fear of losing their vast array of “benefits”. While I don't expect Trump to throttle the benefits back, they have been trained for generations that Republican = no welfare and that's a threat to their entire lifestyle.
Doesn't matter. It will be reported as fact by the MSM, and those voters who don't follow this forum or any Democrat forum will believe it.
“I have never heard of this particular poll.”
Owner list as S. Alinsky
However, ultra-liberal Ipsos who polls for Roooters has PA close. It’s less than 3%.
“Poll Added: Ipsos in PA from 2016-09-09 to 2016-09-15 - Clinton 46.112% to Trump 43.81%”
https://twitter.com/ElecCollPolls/status/777307147667247104
Another poll oversampling Democrats.
They must have polled Philly & Pittsburgh to obtain the spread.
Toss this one in the wastebasket.
That's a fishy poll, I don't care where you're from.
Anyway, then: if Hillary is at 47% with a +- 5.5% MOE, that means her support could range from 41.5% to 52.5%, and Trump at 39% could be between 33.5% and 44.5%, right?
Thus, Trump could theoretically be leading Hillary %44.5 to 41.5%, right?
I'm just trying to ascertain if I'm understanding such issues correctly. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
These stats, of course, are not including other types of errors which also apply, namely things like "coverage" error and non-response error, for instance.
See: Polling Fundamentals for some of the information I was looking at when researching polling.
In any event, it's non-controversial to observe that a 5.5% MOE poll is pretty much garbage, and if I was Donald Trump I'd keep up the pressure in PA. I certainly wouldn't rely on this poll as a justification for not fighting for the state...
Vote Trump!
Trump has a good chance of winning PA.
I’d trust Reuters/Ipsos before I trust Morning Call/Muhlenberg.
Funny party ID math.
Well that’s encouraging. I should have thought about the source more. I grew up in PA not too far from Muhlenberg College and read the Morning Call everyday as a kid. Muhlenberg was always looked at as a school for locals that either wanted to live at home or who were denied admission at their A and B choices. The Morning Call is your typical lefty rag.
That explains it.
Hillary is NOT up by 47% in any reputable mainstream poll.
Her bottom line number is 42% max.
If she gets more than that, it will be a shock considering no one wants her.
Fact: Trump will easily win: Texas, Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania, etc.
There is no way whites split evenly among the Reps and Dems. Romney won the white vote 59 to 39. Reps have won the white vote for over 40 years.
On the basis of advertising I would say Illary is taking the Reuters’ poll seriously. We haven’t had much by way of Presidential commercials for several cycles, but this time they’re spending some money here. Illary is carpet bombing the Pirates’ games. Now that territory is West VA, Eastern Ohio, and PA from the Western Border to mid-state. If they’re spending that much money on a demographic that is older, whiter, and a lot more male, they must have some concerns.
That is an internationally known polling group
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